The Texans are playing with fire, I’m the only one who likes the Giants, the Chiefs are in January mode, and a bold guess at who wins the NFC West.
Last Week: 11 – 5 – 0
Season: 70 – 50 – 3
Thursday (8:15PM ET)
Texans at Jets
I don’t love point differential, but it does give a helpful indication of winning teams who are walking the NFL tight rope. That’s Houston right now. Five of their six wins have a total differential of 18. Not great. Add the Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs injuries to a “disappointing” sophomore season from CJ Stroud and the immediate future is dimmed a bit. (Disappointing is too strong but Stroud hasn’t taken off like many expected.) Houston’s defense and Joe Mixon need to continue to carry Houston until Collins’ return. Mixon has been awesome this season. Extrapolate his stats to a full season (to date) and he’s right behind Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. The defense is also among the NFL’s best, especially against the pass (3rd) and getting after opposing quarterbacks (3rd in sacks, 4th in pressure percentage). They also get off the field on 3rd down (8th). The Jets do nothing well except make excuses and terrible personnel decisions, but this also feels like a last stand for the Jets. Given all the Houston injuries, I wouldn’t be surprised if New York keeps their season alive, if only by a thread, but I also don’t see how Aaron Rodgers survives. TEXANS +2.5
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Cowboys at Falcons
If Dallas loses to Atlanta here they’ll drop to 3-5 and 1-4 in the conference. I don’t see how they get to ten wins at that point. Nine may even be a stretch. The Cowboys have a home and away remaining with both the Eagles and Commanders. Let’s be generous and give them a split there. I’ll grant victories over the Giants and Panthers. They also host the Texans, Bengals and Buccaneers. Although 1-2 is more realistic, let’s pretend they go 2-1. That gets Dallas to ten wins. Now that I see it in writing, it actually doesn’t seem as improbable as I expected. The Bengals can’t get their act together, the Texans and Bucs are missing key receivers and even the Eagles and Commanders don’t look untouchable. The one thing that makes this unlikely to happen, though, is the Cowboys. Their offense stinks. Dak Prescott is a garbage time All-Pro. The defense can’t stop anyone. FALCONS -3
Dolphins at Bills
I saw someone say if everything breaks right, Buffalo could clinch the AFC East in Week 11. What an embarrassment the rest of that division is right now. I took the Bills to win the division before the season because Josh Allen is twice as good as anything the Jets or Dolphins do well. How bad is the Tua Tagovailoa extension going to look this spring? Don’t pay mediocre quarterbacks star money. Between his average play and head issues, the Dolphins will likely find themselves in a position to draft a future quarterback but won’t because they’ve tied themselves to one who won’t be available or any good. BILLS -6
Raiders at Bengals
Is it Zac Taylor? Is he the problem in Cincinnati? The Bengals looked unstoppable for two drives and then couldn’t do anything right against the Eagles. Sure, there is a defense involved in that equation, but the Bengals offense has too many weapons to be that lousy for extended stretches. I still can’t think of five other quarterbacks I’d rather have moving forward than Joe Burrow, so panicking about the Bengals future seems excessive. However, Taylor’s time may come to an end here soon if Cincinnati can’t string together some wins despite a challenging schedule. BENGALS -7
Chargers at Browns
We got the full Jameis Winston experience in Week 8. Impressive passing numbers with some WOW throws, a truly incomprehensible turnover (that was dropped), and elite post game commentary and entertainment. Cleveland switched the most hated, overpaid, disappointing quarterback in the league for the most lovable backup of our generation. I fully expect multiple Winston turnovers this week against a solid Chargers defense. CHARGERS -1
Patriots at Titans
Is Will Levis back? Is Drake Maye out of concussion protocol? If the answer(s) is no, then I don’t need to watch. TITANS -3.5
Commanders at Giants
I know it’s easy to laugh at the Giants. Daniel Jones stinks. They let Saquon Barkley walk. They can’t score touchdowns. I get it. However, the Giants aren’t 2-6 bad. They’re really not. Brian Daboll is a very good offensive coach and the front office put together a heck of a draft in the spring. As an Eagles fan, I would very much want the Giants to start over because I think they’re closer to that 2022 playoff version than a 2-6 team. Then again, you are what you’re record says you are and the Giants have been unable to pull out the close games thus far. They’re 0-3 in games they lost by one score and they’ve scored a total of one touchdown in those games. GIANTS +4
Saints at Panthers
Been a disastrous season for both teams. Neither team has their quarterback of the future. Neither team is even settled on the right coach to lead them into the future. It’s almost all bad news. Almost…https://x.com/JoePompliano/status/1851678569342120195 I know David Tepper is a billionaire and he can afford to give up that money and blah, blah, blah… But this is still pretty cool. SAINTS -7
Broncos at Ravens
I’ll worry about the Ravens defense in December. There are just some teams where you have to trust your eyes more than the record. Sure, Baltimore has two of the worst losses of any team this season (Las Vegas and Cleveland), but they’ve also trounced the Bills, Commanders, Buccaneers and were a size 10.5 shoe away from taking down the defending champs. That doesn’t excuse the losses, but it shows this is a team that is playing for January and when locked-in, are as good as anyone in the NFL. TBD – LAMAR JACKSON STATUS
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Jaguars at Eagles
A rat poison game for the Eagles, if they’re not careful. The Jaguars are down and down bad. They just lost their top two receivers. Their coach is seated on a volcano. (You have to wonder if Doug Pederson has been kept around by Jacksonville just so he can be honored in Philadelphia and then the floor will drop out from underneath him.) The Eagles haven’t looked better in over a year. The defense is gelling, the offense is clicking, and Jalen Hurts hasn’t had a turnover since September. If the Eagles are back for real, for real, they beat this team by three scores. EAGLES -7.5
Bears at Cardinals
Chicago was my favorite dumb team of the week. Oh man was that a clinic in stupidity, and I’m not even talking about the Hail Mary debacle. First there was the series after the D’Andre Swift touchdown run. Your offense hasn’t done anything all game. Nothing. Seven consecutive punts up to that point. Then your running back takes off for a 56 yard touchdown. You’re right back in the game. On their very next drive, the Bears throw the football three times. Three incompletions. Punt. Awesome. Solid play-calling there. On the Bears next drive, Swift runs for 29 yards on the first two plays. Novel idea. Who would’ve thunk it? The Bears get to the one yard line with a chance to take the lead and they decide, Yup, this is the time to give it to a guard. Fumble. Then they allow the 12 yard completion prior to the hail mary and don’t blitz the hail mary. I swear coaches think they get extra points or bonus checks for being creative. You don’t. Do what works. Even if it’s predictable and simple. BEARS +1.5
Lions at Packers
I don’t entirely understand how the Packers keep winning, but they continue to find ways. Last week it was Josh Jacobs and a couple generous Trevor Lawrence turnovers. I think Jordan Love is available to play. The Lions are the only juggernaut in the NFL this season. The Chiefs are undefeated, yes, but they’re not running roughshod over the league like Detroit. I’m slightly terrified of the Packers pulling a victory out of nowhere, but not enough to pick against the NFL’s best. LIONS -2.5
Rams at Seahawks
I think the Rams win the NFC West. They have the most favorable schedule outside of Arizona. Unlike the rest of the division, they’re finally healthy. The 49ers are doing their best, but the relentless bad vibes continue to drag San Francisco into the mud. The Seahawks clearly hate each other and find new ways to self-combust each week. And who can trust a Kyler Murray team? RAMS -1.5
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Colts at Vikings
Been saying it all season… the Colts are good enough to be a playoff team with Joe Flacco under center. It doesn’t make sense to throw away an entire season just to see if a 22 year old QB can hack it. There will be plenty of time for that down the road. This is what it looks like when a coach isn’t fighting for his job. Shane Steichen can’t tie his long-term future to Flacco in Indianapolis, but knowing his future isn’t tied to a potential bust allowed Steichen to make the best decision for the team. If Jonathan Taylor can get back to full health, I love this team in the AFC. Their receivers are deep and talented even though they lack a top end talent. Richardson’s inability to read and throw accurately downfield was scuttling the entire offense. COLTS +5.5
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Buccaneers at Chiefs
Slowly and surely, the Chiefs are establishing their playoff offense. Pound the football, extend drives, keep the defense fresh and let Patrick Mahomes make plays when needed most. Kansas City’s offense has converted 67% of their 3rd downs the last two weeks. They’ve controlled time of possession and never abandoned the run game despite limited success. Andy Reid is shortening games and trusting is defense. The Chiefs have trailed by two scores only once this season (against the Chargers) and have faced a 2nd half deficit only twice (5 points and 2 points, both against the Bengals). Kansas City is playing playoff football now. They know what it takes to win and doing just that. No bells and whistles because they’ve lost their top two weapons already, just good ol January football in the fall. BUCCANEERS +8.5