The perfect addition to the Packers is out there, a 2nd round bust is burning the Chiefs, and ummm, does Marvin Harrison Jr. stink?
Last Week: 8 – 7 – 0
Season: 59 – 45 – 3
Thursday (8:15PM ET)
Vikings 20 at Rams 30
The Rams appeared dead in the water at 1-4 two weeks ago. They were banged up and struggling on both sides of the ball. Now they’re a game out of the division, their star receivers are back, Matthew Stafford is balling and the pass rush is creating havoc. Things turn on a dime in the NFL.
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Eagles at Bengals
It’s incredibly difficult to gage this team week to week. I still think Nick Sirianni needs to be fired, but the team clearly has his back. The defense has looked great as of late, but is that due to lineup adjustments or the poor quality of the opponents? Jalen Hurts hasn’t turned the ball over in two weeks but the offense, more specifically the passing game, still looks disjointed. Cincinnati will be the most talented offense the Eagles have seen since Tampa Bay, so the defense will be tested, especially the young corners. This will also be the weakest defense the Eagles have faced since their bye, so maybe we’ll see some life out of Hurts and the passing game. Who knows. What we do know is these teams faced the same opponents over the last two weeks and only once did a team look impressive. That was the Eagles against the Giants. So let’s go with that totally reliable calculation and take the Eagles. EAGLES +2.5
Ravens at Browns
I don’t publicly support cheering an injured player, especially one on the home team, but to pretend it’s some unspeakable evil is over the top. Deshaun Watson is making nearly a quarter of a billion dollars and performing like a backup. Add in the gross off the field issues and you can see why fans reacted as they did. It wasn’t a beacon of human kindness but it wasn’t a terrorist attack either. I do think the injury will put some life into the Browns, though. Watson’s contract and the trade that brought him to Cleveland held that team hostage. Jameis Winston will definitely bring life to the offense in both good and bad ways. BROWNS +7.5
Titans at Lions
I don’t get what Tennessee is doing at the quarterback position. Your team stinks. The playoffs aren’t for you. Mason Rudolph will be 30 next season. If Will Levis is healthy, you have to start him and find out if there’s anything there so you know what you need heading into the 2025 NFL Draft. Last year it looked like Levis had a future. This year it’s been the exact opposite. Rudolph is a solid backup. He’s never going to be your franchise quarterback. Levis probably won’t be either, but you have to know for sure. LIONS -12
Cardinals at Dolphins
Marvin Harrison Jr… is it too early to be concerned? It’s not looking great. Maserati Marv looks slow and he has a drop percentage of 9%. I don’t even know what the league standard is, but nine seems high for the top receiver of the draft. Kyler Murray is an All-Pro when it comes to bad QB body language and his frustration with the young receiver is noticeable. Receivers aren’t like quarterbacks or edge rushers or lineman. The high draft picks tend to pop off pretty quick if they’re going to be a difference maker in the NFL. Harrison has flashed once or twice but has been extremely underwhelming otherwise. Also, Tua Tagovailoa is back. I think everyone is forgetting how bad Miami was with him this season. CARDINALS +5
Jets at Patriots
There are too many games in the early slot this week. I can only have eyes on seven unless I want more than one TV to go multiview. This game will get the axe. Remember when the Jets were supposed to have one of the best defenses? The only teams they’ve held under 23 points are the Titans, Patriots and Broncos. The New York offense is certainly the biggest reason the Jets aren’t winning but the defense isn’t helping. JETS -7
Falcons at Buccaneers
Atlanta scored 100 points in its previous three games and went three-and-out only once last week against Seattle. It was turnovers that decimated the Falcon offense in Week 7 and all of them came while trailing by multiple scores late in the 2nd half. Thus, I’m going to forgive the Falcons and assume they return to form against a Buccaneers team that is reeling from two significant injuries and on a short week. With a win, the Falcons would improve to 4-0 against the NFC South and sweep Tampa Bay. FALCONS -2.5
Packers at Jaguars
I’m not the first to ask this question, but I wonder what the Packers offense would look like with an unquestioned number one receiver. Green Bay is by no means weak at receiver. In fact, their depth is probably near the top of the NFL. However, I think having a number one with size would put their offense and Jordan Love atop the league. So who is that receiver and how do they get him? The answer is Tee Higgins, and he’ll be a free agent this summer. Higgins is only 25 and has the size and ability that will blend perfectly with Jayden Reed. Christian Watson was supposed to be that guy in Green Bay but nagging injuries and inconsistent production have been a problem. I have no idea what Green Bay’s cap situation is, but assuming they can swing the money, Higgins is the perfect fit. PACKERS -4
Colts at Texans
I’m blinded by homerism, but how is Colts/Vikings flexed to Sunday night instead of keeping the Jaguars/Eagles? I get the Vikings part. They’re near the top of the NFC and Justin Jefferson is one the NFL’s marquee players. The Colts, on the other hand, have no marquee players, their quarterback is bad at quarterbacking and they’ve scored more than 16 points only once without Joe Flacco. The Eagles have three marquee players (Jalen Hurts doesn’t belong there on talent but he’s a commercially marquee guy) and the Jaguars have a number of impactful fantasy guys. Fantasy drives ratings. I can’t imagine the ratings for the Colts will outnumber a northeast team. TEXANS -5.5
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Saints at Chargers
Speaking of needing a number one receiver… The Keenan Allen trade makes even less sense now for the Chargers. Was it really worth a 4th rounder to unload your top receiver? Jim Harbaugh’s squad is tough and I still think they make the playoffs, but they have one of the better arms in the NFL and can’t throw the ball downfield. The injury to Quentin Johnston hasn’t helped, but despite his minor resurgence after a bad rookie season, I still think the Chargers need a top tier receiving threat. CHARGERS -7
Bills at Seahawks
Amari Cooper’s addition improved and will continue to improve the Bills offense because of how his presence improved matchups. Keon Coleman faced safety help far less, Khalil Shakir had significantly more space and better matchups in the slot, and Mack Hollins will likely see diminished playing time going forward. I’m guessing Buffalo was expecting Dalton Kincaid to emerge and absorb the safeties attention down the seam much more than has been the reality, so the Bills went and brought in a more polished receiver to do that. The Bills 2nd half against Tennessee was a clinic in working over a secondary. BILLS -3
Panthers at Broncos
Let’s go Bryce Young. This may be your final shot in Carolina. Whenever you’re on the sideline and you feel confused about what your supposed to do, just look out on the field and watch Bo Nix. He also has no idea what he’s doing, but he runs around long enough until he figures something out and generally limits the boneheaded-backbreaking turnovers. Let’s start with that and grow from there. You got this. BRONCOS -10.5
Chiefs at Raiders
I really like the Amari Cooper addition in Buffalo and I really like the DeAndre Hopkins addition in Kansas City. Hopkins is still an elite jump ball receiver and I can’t think of an NFL quarterback more open and willing to throwing jump balls than Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are currently a prime example of how missing on high draft picks is a killer. Skyy Moore was a 2nd round pick in the 2022 draft. Outside of a Super Bowl touchdown, he’s done very little with the Chiefs. Now, maybe they don’t draft Rashee Rice if Moore excels but regardless, Kansas City desperately needs production at receiver and Moore did not produce and got injured to boot. As a result, the Chiefs have to hope a 32 year old veteran can add some much needed production on the outside. RAIIDERS +9.5
Bears at Commanders
I know he played in England, but this will be Caleb Williams’ first close up of his young career. As of right now, Jayden Daniels is still not practicing, so it’ll be even more pressure for Williams to perform and beat a Commanders team without their own rookie star at quarterback. In the NFL quarterbacks get too much glory and too much blame. Running backs just get too much blame. That’s why it’s important to point out one of the biggest reasons for Chicago’s early season turnaround is D’Andre Swift. After a brutal start to the season and a 1-2 record, Swift has given the Bears offense an added dimension. His production over the last three weeks tripled the three weeks prior.
Weeks 1-3: 37 rushes, 68 yards, 1.84 YPC. 6 receptions, 46 yards, Zero TD.
Weeks 4-6: 54 rushes, 257 yards, 4.76 YPC. 13 receptions, 147 yards. 3 TD.
I liked the Commanders here against Chicago’s untested defense but without Daniels I don’t think Washington’s offense can keep up and overcome their own defense. BEARS -3
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Cowboys at 49ers
I warned you before Week 1 that the 49ers were the bad vibes team. It’s actually impressive how well they’ve hung in every week despite the barrage of bad luck and injuries. From one perspective, the 49ers are 3-4 and struggling to remain in playoff contention. On the other, they’re two weird 4th quarter collapses and a Brock Burdy brain fart from 6-1 or 5-2. I’m tempted to take the Cowboys here but I think the 49ers pound the run against a bad run defense and get back to Purdy in play action rather than him dropping back 30+ times a game. 49ERS -4
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Giants at Steelers
I LOVED Pittsburgh’s strategy last week, and it’s one that seems so simple and yet almost no one does it: Throw the football to your big, tall, talented receiver and let him make plays. Russell Wilson can’t be an elite quarterback anymore, but he still throws an elite moon ball. That’s all George Pickens needs, and as talented as Justin Fields is, he can’t throw that ball. Will the strategy pay off every week? No, but Pickens, despite his cantankerous behavior, is an elite pass catcher. Give him chances and he’ll cash them in. The Giants did a good bit of this with Malik Nabers before his concussion and then got away from it last week. I’m guessing his targets go way up even against a tough Pittsburgh defense simply because he’s the Giants only hope on offense. GIANTS +5.5