I’m traveling this week so the picks are lame. I’ll refund all subscription fees this week and next to make it up to you.
Last Week: 11 – 3 – 0
Season: 51 – 38 – 3
Thursday (8:15PM ET)
Broncos 33 at Saints 10
I took the Broncos. I can prove it…
Early, Early Game (9:30AM ET)
Patriots at Jaguars
While I’m not sure how Doug Pederson has survived this long, I’m almost certain this is a win or go home alone scenario. If Trevor Lawrence were developing and performing at or close to an elite level, I could see how Jacksonville would allow Pederson some more time, but nothing… and I mean nothing… is going well for the Jaguars. Everything looks bad; the defense, the run game, the effort, the energy. All bad. PATRIOTS +6
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Seahawks at Falcons
Seattle has lost two straight at home, three straight overall, surrendered 35.7 points over that stretch and now heads across the country to take on one of the hottest offenses in the league. The good news is Byron Murphy II is supposed to return to action after a three week absence. FALCONS -3
Titans at Bills
Will Levis continues to regress as a quarterback and the Tennessee receivers have had about enough. Speaking of frustration receivers… Amari Cooper will be a gigantic addition to the Bills. Credit to Buffalo for not waiting around and wasting a year of Josh Allen’s prime. BILLS -9.5
Bengals at Browns
Everyone (myself included) remains faithful to the Bengals as a playoff team despite their slow start. It’s obvious why. There’s too much talent on that offense. However, how many more times will they struggle against a subpar opponent? This team is the quintessential play up or down to the level of their opponent. I can’t possibly take the Browns here, but I’m not expecting much from the Bengals given the way the offense performed against the Patriots and Giants. BENGALS -6
Texans at Packers
Joe Mixon’s return makes the Texans a legitimate threat to the Chiefs in the AFC. His return even nullified the absence of Nico Collins, at least for one week. I like the Packers but they have yet to put a game out there where everyone watching thinks Okay, the Packers are really good. The score against Arizona appeared lopsided but the Cardinal offense would drive and then shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers over and over and over again. Houston won’t be as sloppy and they will finish drives. TEXANS +3
Dolphins at Colts
Joe Flacco will likely return to the bench this weekend and the stat resurgence of Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr will likely fade away. I understand getting your top pick quarterback involved is a priority but what if he’s clearly not ready? Outside of being a tremendous athlete with a cannon for an arm, I haven’t seen much out of Anthony Richardson as a steady NFL quarterback. COLTS -3
Lions at Vikings
Detroit would trade their victory in Dallas for two or three losses if it meant they escaped without injury. The Lions offense is definitely good enough to carry them deep into the playoffs, but the loss of Aiden Hutchinson, in my opinion, disqualifies them from a Super Bowl berth. That defense is already one of the NFL’s bottom seven pass defenses despite ranking among the top ten in pressure rate and hurry percentage. I know this seems like an overreaction but I’m telling you: The loss of Hutchinson was devastating. VIKINGS -1
Eagles at Giants
Eagles games aren’t even fun anymore. They don’t do anything well except run the football, and they decide to not even do that for extended stretches. Nothing they do makes sense. They’ve underachieved for almost two whole seasons and the only people that seem to care are the fans. Give Saquon Barkley the ball. Throw over the middle. Stop being awful. Please. GIANTS +3.5
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Raiders at Rams
The Rams are getting Cooper Kupp back and they have a nice run in front of them where they may be able to climb back into playoff contention. Of Course, that depends on their defense not being a disaster, which they have failed to do up to this point. RAIDERS +7
Panthers at Commanders
Not that they ever were in playoff contention, but a loss here should put the Panthers in a situation where they must figure out their future. Are they completely out on Bryce Young? Is there any hope he’s salvageable? Andy Dalton is not their future. Is Young still part of that equation? You can’t sit him forever unless you are 100% sure he’s toast. With a top pick headed their way, Carolina needs a definitive decision on Young, even if we may think he’s already sealed his fate. COMMANDERS -10
Chiefs at 49ers
The 49ers have struggled to close out victories all season. They appeared on the same path last Thursday when the Seahawks scored back-to-back touchdowns to cut the lead to six. San Francisco eventually sealed the win but there’s officially an issue there and it will creep into their heads whenever they have a 2nd half lead. These things only reset with an offseason. Anyway, this game matters a ton more to the 49ers than it does the Chiefs, but Kansas City is coming off a bye and Andy Reid off a bye is a menace. CHIEFS +1.5
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Jets at Steelers
Davante Adams quit and we’re all supposed to believe he’s just going to be 2021 Adams because he’s on a new team? I hate to admit this, but I think that may be the case. He hasn’t had a reliable quarterback in two years and when he’s healthy and engaged his stats were still impressive. With Adams and Garrett Wilson on the outside, Aaron Rodgers won’t have to hold onto the football as long and the running game should open up as well. I was really looking forward to TJ Watt going after Rodgers but those opportunities may be limited now. JETS -2
Monday Night (8:15PM & 9:00PM ET)
Ravens at Buccaneers
Is Derrick Henry this good because he’s Derrick Henry or because he’s on the Ravens? It’s definitely the former but the latter added another level to his production. Between Henry and Lamar Jackson, Baltimore has the ultimate Thunder/Lightning backfield threat, only the lightning can also send flames out of his arm. When was the last time the Baltimore defense was the team’s weakness? BUCCANEERS +3.5
Chargers at Cardinals
I’m probably the last one off the wagon, but I think I’m out on Kyler Murray. He has all the tools. He just can’t put it all together for more than a quarter at a time. CHARGERS -1.5