The Bills need a number one, Detroit is the NFC’s best, and Jonathan Gannon should be available for Thanksgiving.
(I’ll post the rest of the picks later tonight or tomorrow.)
Last Week: 7 – 7 – 0
Season: 41 – 37 – 0
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
Eagles at Giants
The Eagles haven’t lost to the Giants in a prime time matchup in over 15 years. The Eagles have been almost unbeatable on Thursday nights while the Giants have been a debacle. Saquon Barkley rushed for 176 yards at over 10 yards per rush against New York last season. Jaxson Dart was a turnover machine last weekend against the Saints and should have another tough go against Vic Fangio’s defense. The Eagles are desperate to get their offense on track. All these things point to an Eagles victory and yet I have no confidence in this team. GIANTS +7.5 [Update 10/10 12:15PM ET – Yup.]
Early, Early Game (9:30AM ET)
Broncos at Jets
NFL media people need to make up their minds about turnovers. They say Jacksonville’s turnover numbers are fluky and are more indicative of fortune than skill. Then they lose their mind about the Jets having zero turnovers through five weeks. No one is calling the Jets unlucky. They’re criticizing Aaron Glenn and his defense for not forcing turnovers. So what is it, skill or fortune? BRONCOS -7
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Cardinals at Colts
Between his team’s meltdown on the field and his own meltdown on the sideline, I’m not sure Jonathan Gannon makes it to Thanksgiving. 3-8 before turkey dinner is looking like a real possibility. COLTS -7.5
Chargers at Dolphins
Kansas City is the best team in the AFC, the rest of the conference just doesn’t know it yet. The Chargers were built on their offensive line and downhill ground game. Both have been decimated by injuries. Justin Herbert has regressed from MVP of the league to more turnovers than touchdowns in a matter of weeks. The Charger defense fell apart against the run last week. The Dolphins should be a nice remedy for the struggling Chargers, but that will depend on if Miami is a desperate team or one that has accepted its fate. CHARGERS -3.5
Patriots at Saints
Kellen Moore should get coach of the year right now, and not even for the admirable job he’s done with a bad roster in New Orleans. No, Moore should get coach of the year for his 2024 work with the Eagles offense. They were an unstoppable force for three months. Now look at them. They are a disaster. Anyway, if the Patriots are for real then they go in and win this game outright, but teams on the rise often play flat coming off a huge nationally televised win. SAINTS +3.5
Browns at Steelers
I’m not a believer in the Steelers and that’s why Baltimore’s season is still very much alive. With that said, Pittsburgh probably gets to 5-1 before the schedule catches up with them. I hate giving this many points against the Browns defense, so I’m going to trust Aaron Rodgers to struggle. BROWNS +6
Cowboys at Panthers
Bryce Young doesn’t play well until he’s down multiple scores. Dallas’ offense will oblige and then the Cowboy defense will welcome the Panthers back into the game with open arms. The over is 49.5. Seems low. Defenses rarely stay this bad throughout an entire season. If Dallas can improve 30% defensively then they have a real shot in the NFC East as long as Dak Prescott keeps performing at an MVP level. COWBOYS -3
Seahawks at Jaguars
Let’s go back to the turnover debate… Throughout most of the Andy Reid – Donovan McNabb Eagle heydays in the early 2000s, the defense was the backbone of the team. Jim Johnson’s unit consistently ranked among the NFL’s best in turnovers. He coached it. He preached it. His defensive was predicated on two things: Keep the opponent to 17 points or less, and force turnovers. Turnovers are not some fluky stat. It’s a skill to force turnovers. Johnson made it a priority in his defense every year, so you’re telling me it was just coincidence that his unit was atop the league year in and year out? I’m not arguing the Jaguars defense is an elite turnover unit, but let’s at least give them some credit for forcing so many turnovers over the first quarter of the season. JAGUARS +1
Rams at Ravens
I still think Baltimore is ultimately going to be okay, but it won’t be this week. This is going to be ugly. RAMS -7.5
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Titans at Raiders
I’m not sure what the Raiders are waiting for in terms of benching Geno Smith. He’s thrown multiple interceptions in three of the last four games. He looks completely flustered out there. Your season is likely already scuttled but if you have any hope of saving it, you need a quarterback to protect the football and at the very least give you a chance. Smith has not done that at all over the first month. The running game appears to a have found some footing over the last few weeks. Let Ashton Jeanty carry the offense and trust Kenny Pickett to stay out of the way. RAIDERS -3.5
Bengals at Packers
Your offensive line stinks. Your backup quarterback was a turnover machine. Bringing in a more mobile quarterback who protects the football was the right move. That’s why 40 year-old Joe Flacco makes perfect sense for the Bengals. Flacco has only eight turnovers in four starts and built his career on outrunning linebackers to the sticks. Great job, Bengals. Also, how bad must Sean Clifford be in practice to not even sniff the field in this mess? PACKERS -14
49ers at Buccaneers
Both teams are 4-1 but they win in very different ways. Tampa Bay hangs around long enough to snatch victory at the very end, almost as if they know they’ll win so why bother putting a team away. The 49ers scratch and claw their way by whatever means necessary with whoever is healthy enough to run and chew gum at the same time. I think coaching wins this one, and for that reason I’m taking Kyle Shanahan. 49ERS +3
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Lions at Chiefs
Detroit may be the most complete team in the NFL. They’re averaging over 40 points per game after Week 1. Though the rushing game has yet to find consistency, it’s surpassed the 100 yard mark in each of their last four outings. Aiden Hutchinson has been a menace after a slow start. The defense is fourth in the NFL in takeaways. My only minor concern would be where has Jameson Williams been? Once they get him more involved there’s really no one else in the NFC that can match Detroit’s potential with the exception of maybe the Eagles regaining their 2024 mojo (seems more unlikely with each passing day). As for the Chiefs, I think that offense is going to take off once Rashee Rice returns and gets back into game form. The signs are there. Stupid mistakes cost them against the Jaguars but the run game is coming together and you can tell Patrick Mahomes is starting to feel it again. CHIEFS -2
Monday Night (7:15 & 8:15PM ET)
Bills at Falcons
I wasn’t at all shocked by last Sunday night’s outcome. The Bills defense is a real problem, and if Buffalo can’t run the football the offense will struggle due to a lack of outside threats. Last week I mentioned that Washington should save Garrett Wilson. The Bills should absolutely make that call. While I would never expect the Jets to trade Wilson within the division, Buffalo should seriously consider finding Josh Allen a reliable number one target. It got Philadelphia over the hump in 2004, and while I don’t think Donovan McNabb was as good as Josh Allen, McNabb did carry that offense for years without weapons on the outside just as Allen has done since Stefon Diggs fell off and was moved. So what options are out there if Wilson isn’t a realistic possibility? I would call the Vikings about Jordan Addison. He’s been somewhat of a headache and doesn’t seem like a guy that loves being second fiddle. He also proved he was more than capable when Justin Jefferson missed time due to injury. Chris Olave is another intriguing option. The concussion history is a concern, but the Saints are in the midst of a rebuild and don’t even know who they’re building around at quarterback, so paying Olave after next season may not be in New Orleans’ best interest. And finally, I would call Howie Roseman about both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. If the offensive ineptitude continues, Brown may become too much of a headache for the Eagles. I do think Smith is a number one receiver and that is who I would target if I were Buffalo, but I do not see the Eagles parting with Smith. Are these pipe dream possibilities? Maybe, but you have to make the call or risk wasting the prime of the best quarterback in the NFL. FALCONS +4.5
Bears at Commanders
The Commanders are gutting out victories in impressive fashion. As an NFC East foe, I do not like what I see. Despite injuries and inconsistent offense, Washington keeps finding ways to win. I will be paying close attention to the Commanders pass defense this week. They’re 23rd in passing yards allowed but dead last in yards per completion. The Bears push the ball downfield. They’re 7th in yards per completion. If Washington’s pass rush can’t disrupt Caleb Williams it could be a fireworks show. BEARS +4.5