Is the Giants pass rush good enough? Are teams slowly figuring out the Commander offense? Who will be the AFC Wildcard teams? Am I asking too many questions?
Last Week: 5 – 8 – 1
Season: 40 – 35 – 3
Please Note: I will add my picks later today. Waiting on a few injury updates. I apologize for the delay.
[Picks added 10/12 12:24PM ET. Way too many favorites. It’s gonna be ugly.]
Thursday (8:15PM ET)
49ers 36 at Seahawks 24
Seattle’s offense is too talented to go through the extended stretches of ineptitude they’ve displayed the last few weeks. They failed to slam the door on Miami in Week 3, going six straight drives without a score, including three consecutive three-and-outs. Against the Lions a week later, they found themselves trailing 21-7 at the half before rallying back in the 2nd half. Against the Giants last week, the offense didn’t find the end zone until 2:09 remained in the game. On Thursday night it was much of the same. A turnover on the first drive of the game, no points throughout almost the entire 1st half until a field goal as time expired got them on the board. What’s the fix? I don’t know. I think they’re asking too much of Geno Smith. I think they need to do a better job establishing the run game. And I think they should feature Jaxon Smith-Njigba more.
Early, Early Game (9:30AM ET)
Jaguars at Bears
Opponent matters a lot, so please consider the Bears beat the Rams and the Panthers the past two weeks. Regardless, Caleb Williams has progressed nicely in those wins. He’s protected the football (no turnovers), his completion percentage over that stretch was the highest of the season, he’s getting the ball downfield more and his sacks dropped from 13 in the first three weeks to just four over the last two. Again, it was the Rams and Panthers (the 29th and 28th ranked defenses, respectively), but progress for rookies is progress. You take it any way you get it. If you’re wondering, the Jaguars defense is 31st overall and dead last against the pass. Uh oh. BEARS -1
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Cardinals at Packers
Are the Packers good or not? The Rams are struggling due to injuries and retirements. Though they are well coached, the Rams should not have been in that game and yet the Packers found themselves at the mercy of Matthew Stafford with the game on the line in the final minutes. We still haven’t seen a complete game from the Packers outside of their domination of the lousy Titans. Now that Jordan Love is fully healthy, there are no more excuses for that offense, especially against Arizona’s bottom ten defense. PACKERS -5.5
Colts at Titans
I gotta admit, I missed Will Levis last week. Jordan Love filled in nicely, however, and made sure to give us the boneheaded QB highlight of the week. Anthony Richardson was a full participant Thursday, and based on Shane Steichen’s comments earlier in the week, it appears Richardson will start Sunday. I wonder how that goes over in the locker room after Joe Flacco threw for 527 yards in less than two games. I understand Flacco is not the future, but locker rooms want to win. Flacco clearly gives the Colts the best chance right now. Let’s put the over/under on QB turnovers for this game at 3.5. I’m going over. COLTS +3
Texans at Patriots
I completely agree with the Patriots going to the rookie Drake Maye at quarterback. I just find it funny that their rationale in not playing him earlier was to protect him because their offensive line is not very good. So you make this the week you start him? The Texans are the 3rd best pass defense in the NFL. They’re also in the top ten in nearly every pressure stat known to man. Sack %; tied for 4th. Sacks per game; 7th. Incompletions against; 2nd. Pressure %; 8th. QB knockdowns; 10th. Have fun, Drake! TEXANS -6.5
Buccaneers at Saints
I’d like to preface this with declaring I know nothing about Spencer Rattler as a person. I apologize if he’s a lousy human. Anyway, I’m pulling for Rattler here. I only wish the game were against the Bears so he could take revenge on Caleb Williams for ruining his college career. Okay, so that’s a little strong. Rattler ruined his college career by underachieving, but you get the point. If you don’t know, Rattler was a Heisman favorite and mocked as a top 10 pick in the draft a few years back. He struggled in the first half of one Oklahoma’s early games and was pulled for some freshman QB named Caleb Williams. Well, Williams was a star from the moment he took the field. Rattler was toast and forced to transfer for playing time. His career never fully recovered, but he was drafted in the 5th round by the Saints in the 2024 draft, 149 selections after… Caleb Williams. I love redemption stories. Hopefully Rattler makes the most of his opportunity. BUCCANEERS -3.5
Browns at Eagles
Deshaun Watson has quarterbacked worse than any other quarterback this season. Will Levis thinks Watson sucks. This would be a “get right” game for most any other NFL franchise. Eagles fans do not feel comforted, however, because the Eagles never make anything easy. Watson will probably look like the 2018 version of himself. The Eagles offense will undoubtedly do dumb things like not run the football, commit red zone turnovers, and pass on a field goal at least 17 times. I can’t wait. EAGLES -8
Commanders at Ravens
I think it’s unfair to call this Jayden Daniels first test as if all he’s accomplished to this point was due to lesser opponents and not his talent. With that said, this is Jayden Daniels first real test. Baltimore’s defense isn’t nearly as good as it was a year ago, but there is talent there and you can bet a unit of veterans will not take getting lit up by a rookie quarterback lightly. Though the score didn’t reflect it, the Browns defense actual performed better against Daniels than any other opponent thus far. Cleveland forced two punts and two turnovers. (They actually forced four punts but two were after the game was out of hand so I’m not counting those.) That’s four drives that ended without points. Only Tampa Bay in Week 1 came that close to limiting the Washington offense (they forced three punts). In fact, Washington has had six drives stopped by opposing defenses over the last two weeks (missed field goals and the aforementioned garbage time punts not included). They had ZERO drives stopped by opposing defenses the two weeks prior. So defenses are at least getting an idea of how to limit this potent unit. RAVENS -7
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Chargers at Broncos
There is going to be one and maybe even two AFC playoff teams that make you scratch your head and think, THAT team made the playoffs? I’m guessing it’s going to be one of these two teams and maybe even both. Yes, it’s way too early, but let’s look at it anyway. The AFC East is a hot mess. I doubt we’re getting two teams there. The AFC South is drunk outside of Houston. The AFC North has been a disappointment with the Bengals needing an epic run to even get to .500 and the Browns driving off a cliff. The Steelers schedule is a death march. We may get one Wildcard there but certainly not two. That leaves the AFC West to come up with one and maybe even two Wildcards. The Chargers and Broncos aren’t very good but they are well coached and grind out wins even against better teams. Those teams are often around come January. CHARGERS -3
Steelers at Raiders
As I mentioned, Pittsburgh’s schedule is tough. They need to get to five wins before their Week 9 bye and the Raiders are their best shot of those three weeks. The Jets and Giants aren’t exactly juggernauts, but when your offense can’t score, any team with a capable defense and a heart beat is a threat. Las Vegas is switching quarterbacks this week and their star receiver has unofficially quit on the team, so the Pittsburgh defense should feast. Also, I don’t understand the George Pickens drama. He wants the ball. He wasn’t targeted much Sunday night. He didn’t commit a crime. What is all the fuss about? He didn’t run hard all the time? Come on. STEELERS -3
Lions at Cowboys
Dallas performed well Sunday night and dominated but still had to scratch and claw their way to victory. The Steelers offense is garbage though, and at no point did Dallas’ offense have to press to stay in the game. That won’t be the case this week. Detroit will run the football. Dallas’ effectiveness against the run in Pittsburgh had more to do with the Steelers inability to run the ball and less to do with Dallas’ ability to stop it. The Lions offensive line will eat Sunday and it will be up to Dak Prescott to score and protect the football. This one could get ugly. LIONS -3.5
Falcons at Panthers
I like what Carolina is doing with Bryce Young. Limited reps in ideal situations, build confidence, and pray to God he figures something out over the next three months. FALCONS -5.5
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Bengals at Giants
No Malik Nabers again for the Giants. That’s a huge loss because the Bengals are going to score and keeping up without Nabers won’t be easy or even doable. New York’s only shot Sunday night is to dominate the lines: Run the football effectively and more importantly, get after Joe Burrow. The Giants lead the NFL in sacks but their pressure % is only middle of the pack. Furthermore, their highly touted ends aren’t producing as the Giants would’ve hoped. Kayvon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns rank 57th and 58th in sacks, respectively, and neither is ranked among the top 60 in pressures. I do think defensive lines should be graded more as a unit than individuals, which is where the league-leading 22 sacks come in to play. However, when you invest so much capital in the end position I do think more production is warranted. If those ends win against the Bengals tackles the Giants win. If not, Joe Burrow will drop 30 points without breaking a sweat. BENGALS -3.5
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Bills at Jets
I think Josh Allen is doing that thing where he’s holding the ball too tight. Obviously that’s a metaphor for being too afraid of mistakes, but that’s what happens when your defense is struggling and you don’t entirely trust your receiving options. It doesn’t help when Joe Brady is calling the dumbest plays when running the football to either chew clock or burn the opposition’s timeouts should be the priority. Seriously, what was that? Allen was probably concussed so it’s a stretch to argue Buffalo would’ve won that game, but the Bills were in control for most of that 2nd half and CJ Stroud and the Texans offense were struggling since Nico Collins went down. You’re inside your own ten with a minute to go. Play for overtime. Regardless, the Bills need to find a possession receiver. I thought it would be Dalton Kincaid but he and Allen have yet to click. Mack Hollins is bad on deep balls. Keon Coleman does rookie things and that drives quarterbacks crazy. Khalil Shakir is probably Allen’s favorite and most trusted target but he appears set to miss his second consecutive game. James Cook may be out as well, so Allen will have to perform miracles to end Buffalo’s two game skid. JETS +2