AJ Brown is correct, Garrett Wilson needs a new home, and I am a Jaguars believer.
I got killed last week. Sleep is important when making picks. Refunds on me.
Last Week: 5 – 11 – 0
Season: 34 – 30 – 0
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
49ers 26 at Rams 23
You won’t win every game in an NFL season, but you can’t give away wins like the Rams have done through the first month. Two blocked kicks have likely already cost the Rams home field advantage in the postseason and made the climb to a division title a little steeper.
Early, Early Game (9:30AM ET)
Vikings at Browns
I liked the Vikings last week because I thought the Minnesota defense would make life miserable for Aaron Rodgers and the Steeler offense. That wasn’t the case. The Vikings produced zero turnovers, sacked an immobile QB just twice, and allowed a career 3rd down back to rush for 100 yards at a 5.2 clip. The Cleveland offense is even more limited and now will have a rookie under center. Regardless, I think I like the Browns here. That Cleveland defense is really good. They held the Lions offense to 277 yards, 117 below their season average heading into the game. Of the 34 points surrendered, 17 came from a short field of 20 yards or less off turnovers, and another 7 from a punt return touchdown. Carson Wentz has performed admirably in relief for the Vikings but a gunslinger against this Browns defense is a recipe for failure. BROWNS +3.5
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Raiders at Colts
The Colts blew a big win last week. Sure, the loss probably evens out the victory they stole from the Broncos in Week 2, but that loss will leave a scar. I know the Raiders are struggling, but I’ll be paying close attention to see how Indianapolis bounces back this week. Daniel Jones wasn’t great against the Rams. Has the carriage turned into a pumpkin or was it just a bump in the road? Jonathan Taylor is the best way to limit the load on Jones’ shoulders. I thought only 17 carries last week was too light, especially against a superior opponent. COLTS -7
Giants at Saints
I was shocked Brian Daboll went to Jaxson Dart this early. I mentioned this a few weeks back, but Dart is Daboll’s only wild card when it comes to saving his job. Going to Dart this early leaves open the possibility that Dart struggles and Daboll is removed with no further time to develop the young quarterback. As the kids would say, let’s keep it a buck: Dart wasn’t anything special last week. The offense totaled 107 yards in the 2nd half. Their only touchdown was off a turnover that gave the offense the ball at the three-yard line. They punted on four of their six possessions in the 2nd half. Simply put, Dart wasn’t Russell Wilson, and that’s all New York fans want at this point. SAINTS -2
Cowboys at Jets
The Washington Commanders made a lot of moves in the offseason and as I mentioned last month, they went the wrong direction with many of those moves. The future isn’t now for the Commanders. The future is a 5-7 year window (assuming Jayden Daniels can remain healthy). Instead of signing a 31 year old receiver to a 3 year extension, why not chase after young, proven receiver talent? Garrett Wilson is sitting in New York waiting to be saved. He’s never played with a true starting quarterback. It was Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson and Mike White throwing the ball in Wilson’s rookie season. Then it was Zach Wilson and Trevor Siemian in 2023 after Aaron Rodgers went down near the opening kick. Last year it was the limited and immobile Rodgers. Now it’s the mobile and passing deficient Justin Fields. The Jets aren’t going anywhere. They have no future at quarterback. You don’t think they’d listen to a deal that brought back a first and second rounder? Washington could then pair the 25 year-old Wilson with the 24 year-old Daniels and build their offense out from there for the next half-decade. COWBOYS -2.5
Broncos at Eagles
There’s currently a level of angst around this Eagles team that more closely resembles that of an 0-4 team than 4-0. Thankfully, that angst appears to remain outside the team, but AJ Brown’s impatience is growing, and rightfully so. Are the cryptic Instagram posts helpful? No. Is responding to local radio hosts going to change the offense? Doubtful. However, I think Brown is on the right side here. The offensive direction is a problem. I actually prefer he go at the offensive coordinator and/or Jalen Hurts during the game (not physically, obviously) rather than wait until after the game or midweek. The offense needs to change. Brown has the cache to be the driving force for change. We learned in 2023 that record doesn’t matter if the product is clearly defective. Brown wants it fixed it now, and he is right. EAGLES -3.5
Dolphins at Panthers
This a great uniform game and lousy in regards to football. So allow me to quickly complain about ESPN’s Sportscenter. It’s fall. The NFL season is in full swing. College Football had thrilling matchups with major playoff implications last weekend. The MLB Playoffs just started. And yet, every time I turned on ESPN this week, WNBA nonsense was all over the screen. What is going on? If you think I’m complaining because I am not a fan of women’s basketball well then you’d be correct. But it also doesn’t make sense from a reality standpoint. Let me show you…
The WNBA Playoffs average about one million viewers per playoff game. A nationally broadcast MLB regular season game averaged about two million viewers this season. The just completed Wildcard round averaged above 4 million. The Oregon-Penn State clash drew 8.5 million viewers. The Alabama-Georgia SEC showdown attracted over 10 million. Any regular season NFL game averages between 15 and 17 million. So my question is this… how are you serving sports fans by spending such a disproportionate amount of time on a sport the NUMBERS say sports fans are watching far less? The answer is obvious: ESPN is serving their own agenda, not sports fans. DOLPHINS -1
Texans at Ravens
Baltimore looks like the 2023 Philadelphia Eagles did after the 49ers took their soul in Week 13. The Eagles never really recovered. The Ravens have time, but not plenty of it, especially considering how quickly and significantly the injuries are mounting. The AFC North will ultimately be Baltimore’s saving grace. Cleveland and Cincinnati are a mess, and the Steelers will undoubtedly come back to the pack as their schedule toughens. If the Ravens can salvage one of their next two games before the bye, I think they’ll ultimately be okay. After the Rams in Week 6, the schedule will give Baltimore a lot of opportunities to get right and gain ground. I won’t list them all, but the current record of Baltimore’s opponents from Week 8 through Week 16 is 15-21. RAVENS +2.5
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Titans at Cardinals
Arizona will start their 3rd string running back this week. That’s the bad news. The good news is the Cardinals are 2-0 against teams with losing records this season. The real bad news is seven of Arizona’s next eight are against teams with winning records. TITANS +7.5
Buccaneers at Seahawks
Is it true both teams will be sporting their classic throwback uniforms? If so, I will be tuned in based on aesthetics alone. I honestly don’t know how to classify the Eagles right now, so let’s ignore them. I think the Buccaneers and Seahawks are just below the Lions and are right there with the Rams and Packers in the NFC. Tampa Bay has the luxury of a bad division, where as Seattle resides in the deepest division in the league. I believe in Seattle’s defense more but they need another weapon on the outside to pair with budding (or already budded) star Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I think Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneer offense will be a handful once they get all their pieces healthy and on the field together, but that won’t be for at least another month, so I’m taking Seattle. SEAHAWKS -3.5
Lions at Bengals
I don’t know what happened to Jake Browning but Cincinnati needs to fix it or move on fast. Two years ago he was a serviceable backup that kept the boat afloat in Joe Burrow’s absence, leading the Bengals to a 4-3 record in his seven starts and keeping them in playoff contention. He’s been dreadful in two starts this season, leading the offense to only 13 total points. The Bengal defense is not good. The offense must produce points to have any shot of winning games and salvaging the season. Maybe bring in an aggressive yet able quarterback like Jameis Winston or Kirk Cousins? LIONS -10
Commanders at Chargers
I couldn’t believe how poorly the Chargers performed in Week 4. Jim Harbaugh teams have generally traveled well, and he’s one of the last coaches that would allow his team to believe the media hype, or so I thought. Justin Herbert wasn’t great. The defense was mostly fine but surrendered that long opening drive and couldn’t force the rookie quarterback into any turnovers. What doomed the Chargers was the play calling. 41 passes to 13 runs against an elite pass rush doesn’t make sense, especially when the Chargers never trailed by more than two scores. I thought buying the Jaxson Dart hype was the foolish move a week ago, but no, buying the Chargers hype was my misstep. CHARGERS -3
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Patriots at Bills
It’ll be another month before we know how good the Bills really are this season. The combined record of their opponents to date is 2-14. Though, I do give them credit for breaking the spirit of the Baltimore Ravens. With that said, I think the Patriots will be a nice test for the Bills and also a great opportunity to see how New England’s rebuild is progressing. Like Buffalo, the Patriots schedule has been a bit soft (sorry Pittsburgh). PATRIOTS +7.5
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Chiefs at Jaguars
I think I’m the only believer in the Jaguars. Sure, the QB can be a disaster at times and the number one receiver seems to hate football, but that offense is still just scratching the service. Trevor Lawrence could settle in. It could happen. They haven’t figured out the Travis Hunter weapon just yet. Brenton Strange is quietly becoming one of the better tight ends in the league, and Travis Etienne Jr. has found his home run hitting ability that he misplaced the last two seasons. Did I mention Jacksonville leads the NFL in turnover margin? As an offense, you don’t have to be perfect when you get more opportunities to succeed than the opponent. I get that many believe turnovers are a fluky stat when it comes to impacting wins and losses, but I believe good defenses force turnovers and the Jaguars have the look of a solid defense. I’m in on Jacksonville. JAGUARS +3.5