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Week 4 NFL Picks

The 49ers Week 3 collapse took the crown as the worst of the season and the Eagles need to give it Saquon Barkley alot. And then some more.

Last Week:  7 – 9 – 0
Season:       23 – 24 – 1

Thursday (8:15PM ET)

Cowboys 20 at Giants 15
And that’s what it looks like when you take the three points all night long. I’m not defending Nick Sirianni here, but you have to risk it for the biscuit from time to time. Even against a lifeless Dallas team, the Giants were never a serious threat to win Thursday night without touchdowns.

Early Games (1:00PM ET)

Saints at Falcons
Is the talented Atlanta offense really going to underachieve for yet another season or has the schedule been unkind thus far? The Steelers are obviously the league’s premiere defense. The Eagles defense, though gashed at times by Atlanta, appears to be better than myself and others thought after locking down the high-flying Saints offense. And the Chiefs won a Super Bowl because their defense was an immovable force throughout the postseason. So maybe we need to give the Falcons a few weeks against some average defenses before we declare them an underachieving mess for the 3rd consecutive season. FALCONS -2.5

Rams at Bears
Sean McVay had no business winning last week. Sure, the 49ers contributed greatly to the cause but what a performance by McVay. Matthew Stafford deserves a great deal of praise as well. Give him receivers with two hands, two eyes and two feet and he’ll find away to get 250 yards and 24 points. Stafford is undoubtedly the most underrated quarterback of this generation. I hate this pick but Chicago is due. BEARS -3

Vikings at Packers
I am retiring from criticizing Malik Willis. I’ve been burned too many times. However, I am going to take the Vikings as long as Jordan Love does not play. VIKINGS +3

Steelers at Colts
The Colts have a good team. The offense is underachieving and it’s entirely on the quarterback. At some point, Shane Steichen must decide if this season is about the future or the present. Good luck selling the future to a team of talented veterans with a real playoff shot this year. Take Michael Pittman Jr., for example. He’s averaging three fewer receptions and 43 fewer yards per game than a year ago. In fact, he’s own pace for the lowest output of his career. He’s 26 and just inked an extension in the spring. Get him the ball. It’s time to see what Joe Flacco can do. COLTS +2

Broncos at Jets
Zach Wilson revenge game… from the sideline. I’m unsure what to make of Denver shellacking the Buccaneers last week. Their pass rush was certainly impressive. On the other hand, Bo Nix still does not have a passing touchdown and there’s no run game to protect him or aid the offense. A small glimmer of hope in the form of Tyler Badie did appear in Tampa Bay, though. Badie rushed for 70 yards on 9 carries, bringing his season total to 10 for 86. Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin have combined for 42 carries/92 yards. Despite his production, Sean Payton was pretty passive about whether Badie would see an increased workload. Go figure. BRONCOS +7.5

Eagles at Buccaneers
If ever there was a time for the Jahan Dotson trade to pay off, this would be it. Tampa Bay will obviously key their defense toward Saquon Barkley and force an erratic Jalen Hurts and a depleted receiving corps to beat them. A lot has been said about Hurts’ improvement against the blitz. We’ll know this week if it’s actually true because Todd Bowles loves to blitz. I have no idea what to expect from the Eagle defense. They were exceptional last week outside of the one touchdown drive in the 4th quarter. I’m 100% sure no one reads this blog, but if someone has Nick Sirianni’s ear, please tell him there’s a bye next week. Barkley needs 25+ carries. Even if he’s only at 43 yards on 14 carries in the 4th quarter, keep feeding Barkley. I can’t tell you how many times he would rush for 50+ yards in the 4th quarter as a Giant after a grind-it-out miserable first three quarters. He’s the quintessential pounding the rock back. You don’t know when, but at some point late in the game that rock will break. BUCCANEERS +1.5

Bengals at Panthers
At the very least, Panther fans found some peace last week knowing their coach isn’t incompetent. That offense looked smooth and even a little explosive. You could see the team energy was improved as well. It’s nothing personal against Bryce Young, but when you don’t give your team a chance, the life goes right out the window. Speaking of having no life… the Bengals are on life support. I don’t always buy the stats about 0-3 or 0-4 teams almost never making the postseason. Of course they don’t. Teams with winless starts are usually bad teams. Bad teams don’t reach the postseason. I don’t know that the Bengals are a bad team or just a team that needs high stakes to play to their potential. Losing to perhaps the worst team in the NFL in Week 1 and then falling to one of the worst defenses last week is bad regardless of interpretation. PANTHERS +4.5

Jaguars at Texans
Are Doug Pederson and Zac Taylor racing to be the first coach fired? The Jaguars were boat raced Monday night. You can’t help but wonder if the impact of choking away a victory in Week 1 is still lingering over this team. I obviously don’t completely understand the business part of the NFL, but I have a hard time believing the NFL would want Pederson fired a week before the de facto London team heads across the Atlantic for their two-week stretch with the cousins. The league wants the best product possible. A new coach thrown into that mess without any kind of bye week prior could be ugly. Also, the AFC South isn’t exactly running away from the Jaguars. A win against the division favorites here and Jacksonville is right back in it. JAGUARS +6

Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)

Commanders at Cardinals
Monday night was a huge bummer for those of us with NFC East teams not named Commanders. I’m not necessarily rooting for anyone to fail, but that was a scary performance by Jayden Daniels. I will say this, though: Robert Griffin III was even more terrifying and he was essentially toast within a year of the conclusion of his rookie season. CARDINALS -3.5

Patriots at 49ers
I think the 49ers meltdown last week may have been worse than the Jaguars in Week 1. They had that game wrapped up and then a comedy of errors derailed everything. Penalties forced a 55 yard field goal, which they missed. The defense allowed a subsequent touchdown in less than a minute. Ronnie Bell then dropped an easy catch that would have allowed the 49ers to eat clock and kick a winning field goal. Then San Francisco allowed a 38 yard punt return and committed pass interference for 25 yards on back-to-back plays to put the Rams in game-winning field goal range. From a missed field goal up 7 to tie game and the Rams in position for a winning field goal took all of two minutes and 22 seconds. Well done. 49ERS -10.5

Browns at Raiders
Tell me… is it better to lose and pay the worst and most overpaid quarterback in the league or win and pay the worst and most overpaid quarterback in the league? It’s obvious, right? So why does everyone squirm at the idea of benching Deshaun Watson. You’re paying him regardless. There’s no trade hope. At least put a quarterback in there that gives you a chance. Are you worried about upsetting Watson? Who cares, he’s already embarrassed you and the league. None of this makes sense. The Raiders also don’t make sense. They stink. I was wrong. RAIDERS -1

Chiefs at Chargers
I’m not wrong about the Chargers. They beat Pittsburgh if Justin Herbert didn’t exit early in the 2nd half. Taylor Heinicke was a sitting duck against the Steeler pass rush. Heinicke dropped back to pass five times and was sacked thrice. I’d take the Chargers if I knew Herbert were all clear but without him the opposing defense will continue to stack the box and dare Los Angeles to throw the football. Hot take alert: I think Kareem Hunt gets the bulk of the carries this week. CHIEFS -7

Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)

Bills at Ravens
This version of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills reminds me of the Donovan McNabb-led Eagle offenses of the early 2000s. The Bills rely on a versatile running back (Brian Westbrook), solid tight ends (Chad Lewis, LJ Smith) and juuuuust enough talent at receiver to spread the ball around and let Allen dice up a defense. I said this before the season when many were unsure of the Bills offense: Josh Allen is THE weapon. Everything else around him just needs to be functional. With that said, Baltimore’s defense played real well for three quarters last week in Dallas and Buffalo has yet to see a defense even close to that level. RAVENS -2.5

Monday Night (7:30 & 8:15PM ET)

Titans at Dolphins
What a train wreck of a game. I doubt the stadium even sells out knowing how bad the Miami offense will be, especially after last week. 205 total yards, 1/12 on 3rd down, and six sacks allowed is not for prime time. Will Levis and the Titans aren’t either, but Levis is at least exciting in a melting down, disastrous kind of way. TITANS +1.5

Seahawks at Lions
The Seahawks are 3-0 but are we sure they’re any good? They squeaked out wins against the Broncos and Patriots before beating the aforementioned neutered Dolphins. Geno Smith is off to a great start after a slight step back in 2023. Seattle’s pass defense is currently tops in the league. Detroit regained their identity last week by rushing the football over 40 times, nearly doubling their pass attempts. That has to be their recipe again. Jared Goff dropping back 55 times like he did in Week 2 would be disastrous for the Lions. LIONS -3.5

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