Too many favorites this week. I’m doomed.
I’m not going to overreact to one week of football. It’s a long season, and pretending one week determines a team’s destiny is silly. With that said, I only have one week of information to base decisions on, so here we go…
Last Week: 6 – 9 – 1
Season: 6 – 9 – 1
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
Lions at Bills
I’m worried about this Buffalo stadium situation. I’m thrilled they kept the Bills outdoors, but will that place remain one of the top homefield advantages? [Update: Seems raucous.] Outside of their ground game with Jahmyr Gibbs and getting after Tyler Shough, I didn’t love what I saw out of Detroit a week ago. [Update: Not much about Thursday has me feeling any better.] BILLS -5.5
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Panthers at Falcons
Carolina’s revamped defense flopped in Week One. Before we write them off for the season, maybe we acknowledge more than half the starters on defense were new, and they went up against arguably the best OC in the NFL. Just a thought. PANTHERS -2.5
Vikings at Bears
Minnesota produced the 4th fewest yards of Week One. The nine other bottom ten producers combined to score 133 points… good enough for an average of 14.78 points. The Vikings scored 39… nearly triple the average score. Also not surprising, only the Vikings and Steelers won out of that bottom ten. This is a pointless stat. You’re welcome. BEARS -4
Saints at Ravens
Let’s flip the script. The top two producing offenses of Week One were victorious and combined to score 100 points. The other three teams in the top five all lost despite racking up over 1,350 yards of offense. Yup, still worthless. RAVENS -7.5
Eagles at Titans
I’m going to talk myself into Landon Dickerson’s injury being the main culprit for the offensive line struggles in Week One. I know it’s not true but let me have this for now. I would love for the Eagles offense to find DeVonta Smith. Not force the ball to him, but scheme him open. He was great across the middle at Alabama. Tell Jalen Hurts this is the NFL and the middle of the field cannot be the Bermuda Triangle that the Eagles have made it since Shane Steichen left town. EAGLES -7
Steelers at Patriots
At some point the Steelers need to realize that Aaron Rodgers is not going to bring their offense to a level that legitimately threatens the opponent. Has a franchise ever been mired in mediocrity for this long? STEELERS +5
Packers at Jets
I did not see a snap of the Jets-Titans last week aside from the limited highlights on ESPN. I did see every snap of the Packers game. Green Bay needs a running back. And an offensive line. And a defense. I hate this pick. PACKERS -3
Browns at Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are going to be okay if they hold onto the football. The Browns will be okay, too. Just not any time soon. BUCCANEERS -8
Bengals at Texans
Houston went up against the best player in the NFL and the Bengals found themselves in a weird turnover carousel, so I’m going to delay any strong takes for another week. Let’s talk about this upcoming Tom Cruise movie. What is it? Why should I want to see it? Or is that the intent of the trailers: To make me so confused about the plot and genre that I must see it to find out? I’m generally all in on Cruise movies. Were the final two Mission: Impossible movies wildly disappointing? Absolutely, but I still went. I don’t want to see Digger, mostly because I don’t know what Digger is about. TEXANS -2.5
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Jaguars at Broncos
If I had to guess which team skipped preseason entirely, I’d go with Denver or Cleveland. I’m trying not to overreact to the Jaguars dismantling of the Browns, but that offense moved with intent and precision. Trevor Lawrence has a plethora of weapons, and he was more than willing to spread the ball around. Was that a product of a bad Browns defense or is Lawrence that comfortable in Liam Coen’s system? I’m leaning toward the latter. I think the Jaguars go to Denver and dice up the Broncos for the 2nd time in ten months. JAGUARS +3
Raiders at Chargers
The Chargers were undoubtedly the most disappointing team of Week One. They couldn’t run the football, Justin Herbert looked lost and frustrated, and an offense that was supposed to be explosive and exciting was extra vanilla. Why not take them in Week Two? CHARGERS -6.5
Commanders at Cowboys
The Dallas defense did not look improved (at all), but the Cowboys lost to the Giants because the offense was also sloppy and out of tune. I expect that won’t be the case again. Let’s talk about young quarterbacks… Jayden Daniels is in year three. His best football was played his rookie year. Caleb Williams? Better each week it seems. Drake Maye? Had a rough 4th quarter last week but led his team to the Super Bowl at an MVP caliber pace. Bo Nix? Looked awful Monday but he’s been steady for Denver since he arrived. My point is this… why does everyone talk about Daniels as if he’s a great quarterback? He hasn’t done anything in over a year. If anything, he’s more Michael Penix Jr than Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. COWBOYS -4
Seahawks at Cardinals
Backup quarterbacks are all fun and wonderful until they’re your starting quarterback the following week. This rarely goes well. I really like Arizona’s offense with a steady leader under center. There are weapons all over the field. Quarterbacks matter. Seattle stole a win last week without their guy. Not this week. CARDINALS +4
Dolphins at 49ers
Is this where the extended stay in Australia strategy comes back to haunt the 49ers? AI tells me jet lag from Melbourne to San Francisco typically lasts five to nine days. The 49ers departed right after their victory and landed back home the afternoon of Friday September 11th. That means this matchup lands on the tail end of that jet lag zone. While an NFL franchise undoubtedly has access to the best medicine/techniques/strategies/supplements to combat jet lag, I can’t imagine their week of practice was to their standard level of excellence. Despite all that, I can’t talk myself into the Dolphins. 49ERS -13
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Colts at Chiefs
That’s eight losses in a row for this Colts group dating back to last season. Shane Steichen may be the first coach fired this year. If the defense could stop anyone that would certainly help. 254 yards and 28 points in the first 25 minutes isn’t a recipe for success. I expect Kansas City to let Patrick Mahomes spread his wings a bit more this week in the passing game. CHIEFS -6.5
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Giants at Rams
I’m going to repeat myself… It’s a long season, so nothing that is determined after Week Two is set in stone. With that said, there are a lot of questions I want answered Monday night. Are the Giants legitimately a good team? They have the recipe. Solid quarterback play, a reliable ground game and weapons outside to both stretch the field and move the chains. Eleven carries are too much for Jaxson Dart, but I’d argue no other head coach is more suited to handle an active quarterback than John Harbaugh. On the other side… was Australia a fluke; a product of poor travel strategy? The offense can’t be that clunky with all those weapons. If there was no pass rush with Myles Garrett where will the pressure come from now? 0-2 doesn’t mean the wheels are falling off, but it certainly increases the pressure on a team declared heavy favorites all summer. My goal this week is to avoid overreacting. Picking the Giants would be a double overreaction by making too much of their victory over Dallas and punishing the Rams for a loss halfway across the world against a good division opponent. RAMS -7