On day six of the flu and I can’t look at the screen for more than ten minutes without feeling like my head is going to pop, so we’re rapid-firing this week’s picks.
Have a Merry Christmas and remember; you work hard, don’t let Santa take credit for your gifts.
Last Week: 7 – 8 – 1
Season: 107 – 105 – 10
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
Jaguars 19 at Jets 3
New York’s defense deserves so much more. It’s understandable that some first round quarterbacks won’t turn into perennial all-pros. However, when such talented college stars look completely lost and incompetent it’s always shocking. I agree with Robert Saleh. It’s a confidence thing as much as anything for Zach Wilson. He has no idea what he’s seeing and no idea what to do because he has no idea what’s happening around him.
Christmas Eve Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Bills at Bears
Buffalo’s offense is sneakily not great. Josh Allen needs some receiver help, and Stefon Diggs needs to chill just a tad. Allen is currently doing the ignore him when he’s flipping out thing but that only works for so long. Eventually Allen is going to explode too. I hate picking the Bills to cover because 1. The weather is bad and 2. The Bills never cover, but oh well. BILLS -8
Saints at Browns
Three massive quarterback contracts were handed out over the summer of 2022. One of those QBs was having his worst season before tearing his ACL. Another was having his worst season BY FAR and continually found himself the butt of Internet jokes. The third guy celebrated a game-sealing touchdown pass like the 2022 Timberwolves did after winning a first round playoff series. Spend wisely, kids. BROWNS -3
Texans at Titans
Mike Vrabel is a good coach but even good coaches need talented players. The lack of talent in Tennessee has caught up to the Titans over the last month. TITANS -3
Seahawks at Chiefs
Do the Seahawks commit big money and head into 2023 with a 32 year-old career back up as their franchise quarterback, or do they take a swing at one of the intriguing QB prospects in late April with the Denver pick they got in exchange for Russell Wilson’s cadaver? CHIEFS -10
Giants at Vikings
I thought the point differential for both of these squads was embarrassing. I was ready to dive into some research to determine where their putridity ranked among past playoff teams. That research ended real quick, because last year the Raiders and Steelers both made the playoffs with point a differential of -65 and -55, respectively. Gross. GIANTS +4
Bengals at Patriots
Patriots fans are losing their minds. It’s gotten so bad many even want Bill Belichick gone. I’m not a big fire the coach guy, but I gotta say, Belichick seems very Joe Paterno-ish (there but not really there) at this point in the game. The offensive coordinator situation is laughably bad, his free agent acquisitions are mostly awful, and his team makes some of the dumbest mistakes around the league on a weekly basis. BENGALS -3
Lions at Panthers
I think the Panthers enter every Sunday completely panicked that they might stumble into the NFC South title. And every Sunday the Buccaneers keep the nightmare alive for Carolina. LIONS -2.5
Falcons at Ravens
If Russell Wilson and Bakey Mayfield weren’t on the Christmas slate, Desmond Ridder and Tyler Huntley would walk away with worst quarterback matchup of Week 16 honors. I’m going to make this one watchable buying taking the over on all the rushing props for J.K. Dobbins and Tyler Allgeier. RAVENS -6.5
Christmas Eve Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Commanders at 49ers
Taylor Heinicke was so, so bad last Sunday night. I’ve been saying he’s the luckiest quarterback in the league for over a month. Even his coach is no longer pretending Heinicke is any good. Good luck flopping from the sideline, Taylor. 49ERS -6.5
Eagles at Cowboys
Gardner Minshew starting insulates my Christmas joy and protects me from any grief from Cowboy friends or relatives. Cool, you beat our backup QB. Great job. Don’t sleep on America’s quarterback, though. This is Minshew’s shot to earn a potential starting job in 2023 and more importantly, an opportunity to pay tribute to his beloved college coach, Mike Leach. Do it for the pirate, Gardner. EAGLES +4.5
Christmas Eve Night (8:20PM ET)
Raiders at Steelers
It’s fitting that the final game before Christmas… the game played while Santa is hustling around the globe… features two black colored teams. Know what else is black? Coal. This is the coal in our stocking. Thanks, NFL. RAIDERS +2
Christmas Day (1PM, 4:30PM, 8:20PM ET)
Packers at Dolphins
It took Green Bay the better part of four quarters to put the lowly Rams away last Monday. I really would love to see the Packers stay alive in the Wildcard hunt but they haven’t beaten a respectable team all season with the exception of that bizarre come-from-behind rally against the Cowboys in mid November. I know it’s hard, but don’t talk yourself into Aaron Rodgers’ magic. There’s no magic this season. DOLPHINS -3.5
Broncos at Rams
CBS should opt out of this one and let Tony Romo and Jim Nantz spend the day with their families. BRONCOS -3
Buccaneers at Cardinals
Come on Trace McSorley! Since McSorley left Penn State I’ve been stuck watching Sean Clifford for 17 straight seasons so McSorley can do no wrong in my eyes. My best advice? Throw it to the guy with number 10 on his chest. CARDINALS +7.5
Monday Night (8:30PM ET)
Chargers at Colts
Nick Foles is in, Matt Ryan is out. Jonathan Taylor is injured. The Colts are eliminated from playoff contention. The Chargers are 100% going to make this way too interesting. CHARGERS -4