Andy Reid is doing Andy Reid things, let’s trade Kyler Murray, and what the Colts need to fix.
Last Week: 5 – 7 – 1
Season: 116 – 88 – 4
Thursday (8:15PM ET)
Rams 12 at 49ers 6
Way back on September 12th I declared the 49ers were the 2024 Bad Vibes Team and they would not get to ten wins. The Bengals made a strong push to take over the bad vibes team crown, but the 49ers prevailed and last night was their coronation. A linebacker that started the previous 13 games refusing to play was peak bad vibes team behavior. Your star wide receiver demanding more opportunities and then dropping a likely touchdown is peak bad vibes team behavior. The only positive from this season could be a little bit of savings on the Brock Purdy extension. He wasn’t bad but he also wasn’t able to carry the franchise through the rash of devastating injuries that plagued the 49er offense.
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Chiefs at Browns
I might be out on the Chiefs, and not because the offense is stuck in mud or because they can’t stretch the field or because they lack explosive plays. I would be out because of Andy Reid. How many times over the last few weeks has Reid thrown the football on 3rd and short? In Week 14 against the Chargers, the Chiefs faced 3rd and short (four yards or fewer) nine times. When Reid ran the football, the Chiefs converted 4/4. Of those four instances, three were 3rd and 1 and one was 3rd and 3. When Reid threw the football, the Chiefs were 1/5. The lone success came on a 3rd and 3. The four failures were a 3rd and 1, a 3rd and 2 and two 3rd and fours. This is what drove Eagles fans crazy throughout Reid’s tenure. On the other hand, Reid is a football genius. He knows what he’s doing. The Chiefs 2024 run percentage is actually higher than it’s been since 2015. I’ll shut up now. CHIEFS -4
Bengals at Titans
As I previously mentioned, the Bengals were a strong contender for Bad Vibes Team and they finally got past that imaginary fence thanks to Leon Lett 2.0 in Dallas Monday night. While they are still mathematically alive in the AFC playoff race, Cincinnati should consider limiting Joe Burrow’s exposure over the final month of the season. He got rocked Monday night and the Bengals have no chance in 2025 without him. I’m not arguing to bench him, but maybe protect him with some more conservative play calling. Burrow has averaged 47 pass attempts over the last four weeks and he’s been sacked 12 times over that same stretch. I’m banking on last week being the Bengals Super Bowl and them coming out flat. TITANS +5
Commanders at Saints
Despite the existence of the Jaguars, Jets, Giants and Patriots, I find the Saints to be the least watchable team in the NFL this season. They are a consistent dumpster fire of injuries and incompetence. If the Giants knew how to play football they may have even won last week. COMMANDERS -7.5
Ravens at Giants
It’s been almost two weeks since Lamar Jackson stood at the podium following a loss to the Eagles and declared he was ready to go and the team would absolutely turn things around. The toothless Giants aren’t much of a test, but we’ll see if the post bye Ravens are any different than the frustrating and inconsistent version we already know. RAVENS -16.5
Cowboys at Panthers
I’m not going to go as far as to say Bryce Young beat the Eagles last week (there was over a minute remaining when Xavier Legette dropped that TD and the Eagles had three timeouts and only needed a field goal). However, he certainly did enough to beat the Eagles and prove he’s an NFL starting quarterback. COWBOYS +3
Jets at Jaguars
I don’t think Doug Pederson has done enough (or much of anything) to warrant keeping his job in Jacksonville, but that team still plays hard. The Bears died weeks ago. The Cardinals and Falcons play like they’re on vacation. The Giants and Raiders play like they want their coach fired. The Jaguars battle, and to their credit, so did the Jets last week. JETS -3.5
Dolphins at Texans
Miami has a pretty easy schedule after this but I don’t think there’s a realistic road to the playoffs. They need to make up two games on the Broncos, Ravens or Chargers and would likely need to win out themselves. Denver has the toughest remaining road but they could get a freebie in Week 18 if the Chiefs have already clinched. In addition to catching one of the three aforementioned teams, the Dolphins have to jump ahead of the Colts in the win column because they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker after falling to Indianapolis in Week 7. If Miami closes well I think Mike McDaniel gets to write this season off due to injuries and keeps his job for another year. TEXANS -3
Afternoon Games (4:25PM ET)
Colts at Broncos
The NFL really dropped the ball here. Look at this late afternoon slate. Four huge games with playoff implications on both sides after an early slate that maybe has one? I also noticed that none of the five start at 4:05. Not sure why the league delayed all the games to that 4:25 start but there will likely be a 8-10 minute stretch Sunday afternoon when no game is live. Anyway, I think this is do-or-die for the Colts. If they win, they can realistically get to ten wins as they finish against the Titans, Giants and Jaguars. Ten may not even get them in but a tiebreaker over the Broncos down the road would be a huge asset. At some point, the Colts need to address their running game. I know Jonathan Taylor has been battling injuries the past few seasons and running backs age pretty rapidly, but I don’t think the drop in Taylor’s numbers tell the whole story. Because it’s not just Taylor. In 2023 Zach Moss’ average yards per rush were right with Taylor’s. It’s nearly the same if you combine the limited carries of Taylor’s backups this season. In 2021 the Colts averaged 5.1 yards per carry. That number has dropped to 4.3 or 4.4 in the years since. That blame can’t entirely fall on the running backs. BRONCOS -4.5
Bills at Lions
Last week I said I still the needed the Bills to convince me. Josh Allen cemented the MVP award against the Rams but that was about it. The Buffalo defense is a problem and any elite passing offense will have its way with the Bills. Thankfully for Buffalo, only two of the NFL’s top eleven passing offenses reside in the AFC and one of them is the Bengals who will probably not see the postseason. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Bills biggest road block in the playoffs will be the Baltimore Ravens and not the Kansas City Chiefs. LIONS -2.5
Steelers at Eagles
The Eagles drama this week is way overblown and mostly about nothing. AJ Brown wants the offense to be better. He said the same things last year when the Eagles collapsed. Jalen Hurts needs to be better. I’m not convinced he’s aware of this fact but everyone else certainly is. Pittsburgh is very good defensively against the run. They do get handsy in the secondary, though, so the Eagles should absolutely ramp up the targets for Brown and DeVonta Smith. With that said, the Eagles are a running football team. They can’t lose sight of who they are just because there’s drama in the locker room. Winning is the goal. I still don’t trust Russell Wilson against a good defense so I think the Eagles pull it out. Unfortunately, I don’t think the drama subsides too much because Hurts will likely continue to struggle. EAGLES -5.5
Patriots at Cardinals
Kyler Murray keeps killing the Cardinals. He has at least three more years after this one and I think Arizona should start looking at some options. Here are four: 1. Trade Murray to the Jets. The Jets don’t have time for a rebuild or to groom a young rookie quarterback. Murray is ready and he has three years left on his deal and even a fourth if you want him. New York can bring in a quarterback whisperer at head coach and hit the ground running with a playoff roster and a capable quarterback in need of new scenery. Is a 1st round pick too steep? Sure, maybe you can get it done for a couple of 2nds and 3rd. I’m not good at valuing picks so I don’t know, but the Jets need a quarterback and Kirk Cousins won’t fit the bill. 2. Stay the course and hope Murray figures this thing out. He’ll only be 28 next season. Sure, not an awful idea but not a great one either. 3. Send Murray and your 1st round pick to the Raiders or Giants for their first rounder (whichever is higher) and take Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward and insert him as your franchise cornerstone. 4. This is the most unlikely… but trade Murray to the 49ers for their first rounder. It’ll likely be a middle of the first round pick but the 49ers have a QB conundrum. A Brock Purdy extension could cost more than Murray’s current number and you’d have Murray locked up for multiple years. Would the Cardinals trade him within the division? No, not a chance, but it’s a fun thought. CARDINALS -6
Buccaneers at Chargers
Tampa Bay has a bad defense and only a weak schedule and the collapse of the Atlanta Falcons has kept them in the playoff hunt. The Chargers are a good team with a winning record. The Buccaneers have not beaten one of those since September 29th. CHARGERS -3
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Packers at Seahawks
Both of these teams are better than I thought they were a month ago. Green Bay’s losses have come at the hands of three teams with a combined 34-5 record. Not a great endorsement for a Super Bowl run but they win the games they’re supposed to win. Seattle doesn’t have quite the same resume but the emergence of Jackson Smith-Njigba has raised the offense a level and given Geno Smith a security blanket when the pocket breaks down. I like the Seahawks here but I’ve been blind on the Packers all season and so my self-scouting says I need to look beyond myself here and go with Green Bay. PACKERS -2.5
Monday Night (8:00PM & 8:30PM ET)
Bears at Vikings
Minnesota is real good. That Divisional Round of the NFC Playoffs is going to be a doozy. We could have four teams with 13+ wins facing off. All the Sam Darnold talk this week was interesting. Do you pay him? Do you trade JJ McCarthy? If you gave Kevin O’Connell truth serum, do you think he would have wanted the season to play out this way? He’s damned regardless of what path he takes. If he keeps McCarthy then McCarthy must live up to Darnold’s level of play this season. If he keeps Darnold and his play falls off, then he’s back to where he was a year ago, but this time with a bloated QB contract on his books. I think the rookie quarterback contract is always the right choice and I’d bet that’s where Minnesota goes. VIKINGS -6.5
Falcons at Raiders
Is this the last stand for Kirk Cousins? I think the outcome of the Buccaneers game Sunday will impact how short the leash is for Cousins Monday night. All the Falcons need to do is catch Tampa Bay to win the division. They do not have to pass them in the win column. Atlanta needs to be a play action pass team if they want to get back to winning. You have the horses in the backfield to do it, and there’s no better way to protect your quarterback than to run the ball effectively. FALCONS -4