The Panthers must reverse a concerning trend, the Commanders were right to play Daniels, and why we desperately needed the Bengals in the playoff hunt…
Good luck to everyone as we try to survive a Saturday without multiple football games. I’m so sad it’s over.
Last Week: 8 – 6 – 0
Season: 97 – 108 – 3
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
Falcons 29 at Buccaneers 28
That was a brutal loss for Tampa Bay that likely removes them from a realistic shot at any Wildcard berth, but the playoffs are still very much alive. And if you think about it, if they don’t win the division the wins just wouldn’t be there for the Wildcard anyway. Regardless, Carolina now has the inside track to a NFC South title. A win Sunday against the Saints and a split with the Buccaneers over the final three weeks would give the Panthers the division crown based on division record (assuming the overall records were equal of course). The Buccaneers collapse was a team effort, but two things stood out. First, how does a fumble in a sea of orange end up back with the Falcons… twice! Second, Baker Mayfield continues to be inconsistent this season. Yes, injuries have gutted the Bucs for most of the year and one game together won’t set everything straight, but it was Mayfield’s interception and his inability to close out the game that sealed Tampa’s fate. I also loved and cringed at Todd Bowles blaming the loss on the players. I don’t disagree with him, but man you don’t see that often in today’s sports world. Not even in football.
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Browns at Bears
What are the chances we walk away from this contest and wonder, Is Shedeur Sanders a better quarterback than Caleb Williams? I don’t think it’s that wild of an idea. If I’m a Cleveland fan, I’m questioning the franchise decision makers. Are the Browns fighting for a division title right now if Sanders starts all season? It’s not that big of a stretch to consider. On the other hand, making such an argument after losing to the Titans is stupid. I apologize. BROWNS +7.5
Ravens at Bengals
Outside of the Eagles, I don’t think I’ve wanted a team to win as much as I wanted the Bengals to win last week. I have nothing against the Bills either. I simply want Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the hunt for as long as possible. I’ve said it many times, but the NFL has a major quarterback problem. For one of the most talented quarterbacks to discuss not doing this anymore if it isn’t fun is a scary scenario for the Bengals and the League. Losing Andrew Luck before his career was even halfway complete was devastating. To lose another star quarterback in a league with so few would be crushing. I’m not criticizing Burrow at all. It’s his life. I want him to do what is best for him. I just also want good quarterbacks to play quarterback. BENGALS +3
Chargers at Chiefs
I could not believe how empty that stadium was for almost the entire 4th quarter last Sunday night. Kansas City fans have gotten too spoiled or too soft. I get it was cold, but it was a one score game, and your season was on the line. That place couldn’t have been more than 65% full. I thought the Chiefs would still find a way into the playoffs after the loss until the Chargers beat the Eagles. That may have been the nail in the coffin. Kansas City could have realistically caught the Chargers and win a possible tiebreaker if everything broke their way. Now, the Chiefs need epic collapses from three 9-4 teams that own a tiebreaker over them or an 8-5 team that also owns the head-to-head advantage. Also, do we really think this is the end of Patrick Mahomes. He’s not even mid 30s yet. Tom Brady played into his 40s. Aaron Rodgers is doing the same right now. I don’t think Mahomes is quite the passer as either of them but there’s another burst in Mahomes’ career. CHARGERS +6
Bills at Patriots
With the Chiefs likely out of the playoffs, there’s no one I trust more in the AFC than Josh Allen. His defense will probably leak like a sieve; his receivers won’t get open and there will be at least one game where his offensive protection breaks down. Doesn’t matter. There’s not a team in the AFC with the playoff experience and talent that can rise to Allen’s level. With that said, if I had to pick one team to knock off the Bills, I would give the Texans the best odds. BILLS -1
Commanders at Giants
Everyone needs to stop crying about Jalen Daniels playing. Are we serious? This isn’t the NBA. Daniels is a second-year quarterback. He’s looked mostly bad this season. This isn’t Peyton Manning or Lamar Jackson in year eight. He needs the reps. I can’t believe how out of hand this whole thing has gotten. If Daniels is playing injured for a team eliminated from contention, then fine, I get it, but Daniels was cleared to play. There are only 17 games every season. You can’t replicate game reps, especially for young quarterbacks. If anything, I’d argue to the complete opposite as everyone else; Daniels needs to be playing. He needs to improve. He needs more time with the offense. He needs to get better at reading a defense. Daniels took a step back this year. He’s almost 25, not 40. If he’s healthy, he should absolutely be on the field. GIANTS -2.5
Raiders at Eagles
The Raiders are in a tight race with Tennessee for worst team in the NFL. Position coaches and coordinators are getting fired, they can’t run the football, their quarterback is bad and injured, and the head coach is trending toward a one-and-done tenure. Regardless, I have no confidence in the Eagles beating such a team. That’s where Nick Sirianni’s crew stands right now. There’s even a little bit of precedence here. In the eerily similar 2023 season, the Eagles lost in brutal fashion to the Seattle Seahawks in the final seconds. A week later they held on to beat the New York Giants and then blew a game to the dreadful Arizona Cardinals. This team, this quarterback and this coach are absolutely capable of blowing this game. Do not doubt them. RAIDERS +12.5
Jets at Jaguars
If the Jaguars were truly the Jaguars of old, this is where Trevor Lawrence would commit a handful of turnovers and they’d tailspin out of the playoff picture. I believe in this Jaguars team, though. Liam Coen knows his quarterback needs protection. No, duh, right? But I’m not just talking about pass protection. I’m talking about protection from himself. When Lawrence throws more than 35 times, Jacksonville is 1-3. When Lawrence throws 35 times or less, Jacksonville is 8-1. There are obviously game flow considerations and deficit/lead scenarios that impact those numbers, but the lesson is still pretty clear. Balance is the key. As such, Jacksonville is stubborn at running the football. They rank 5th in rush attempts per game despite landing in the middle of the league in both yards per rush and rush yards per game. Coen knows that hell or high water, his quarterback is better if the run game is a heavy part of the offense. That strategy is working. Lawrence hasn’t attempted more than 30 passes in the last five weeks, and their only blemish was a strange collapse to Houston. JAGUARS -13
Cardinals at Texans
I’m secretly rooting for a Houston/Denver playoff matchup just to see what a 3-0 playoff victory looks like. This line is too big for a Texan offense that rarely wins by more than one score. CARDINALS +9.5
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Packers at Broncos
I’ve been dying on the Broncos are overrated hill for a while now and morale is low. This is my moment. Green Bay will be only the second team with a current winning record that Denver has played in two months. I’m not even a huge Packers believer, but I do think they can pressure Bo Nix into enough mistakes to swing the game. PACKERS -2
Lions at Rams
The biggest key to beating Detroit is making the offense one-dimensional. That offensive line has not been as effective this season, and Jared Goff does not function well under relentless pressure. In eight wins, the Lions rushed for nearly 1,400 yards. In their five losses, Detroit rushed for only 402 and averaged over 4.0 yards per rush only once. With how banged up the Lions secondary is, and the potency of Matthew Stafford, there’s zero chance Detroit can win unless they dominant the line of scrimmage and rush for over 200 yards. RAMS -6
Panthers at Saints
Everything is front of the Carolina Panthers. A win over the lowly but scrappy Saints would give the Panthers a one game lead over the Buccaneers, a crucial edge in division record, and even keep Carolina alive for that 3rd seed in the NFC. Unfortunately, this Carolina squad has played their best when forgotten and left for dead. The Panthers won three straight after being drubbed by the Patriots. They got trounced by Buffalo then upset the Packers in Lambeau. Followed that win up by crashing against the Saints. Fell flat against the 49ers and written off before bullying the Rams. Expectations bring pressure. Carolina has flopped with expectations all season. Either they reverse that trend or hand the division to the Buccaneers. PANTHERS -3
Titans at 49ers
San Francisco is the best team no one is talking about. With a win over the lousy Titans, the 49ers would head into next week’s showdown with the Rams with first place in the NFC West and perhaps even in the NFC on the line. Kyle Shanahan is a wizard. Injuries should have derailed the 49ers season months ago but here they are in contention for the NFC’s top seed. 49ERS -12
Colts at Seahawks
I didn’t think Riley Leonard was all that bad last week. At least not bad enough to call Philip Rivers out of retirement. Then again, the Colts know more than I do and fully understand how Leonard limits the offense. The Colts issues are still beyond the quarterback position, though. Their slide began when Jonathan Taylor’s production fell off. I’m not blaming Taylor. I’m blaming the offense’s inability to produce via the run. Defenses took away the Colts best weapon and Indianapolis has been drowning since. Over the Colts 1-4 stretch, Taylor has rushed for more than 85 yards only once and averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry only once. Prior to this stretch, Taylor had five games over 85 yards and averaged less than 5.9 yards per carry only three times. The Colts and Eagles are very similar in that a limited run game has completely choked their offense. SEAHAWKS -13.5
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Vikings at Cowboys
I get the NFL always wants Dallas in prime time, but maybe we could have flexed another game here? Anyway, I kind of like the Vikings in this spot. Outside of Atlanta and Baltimore, all the Vikings losses have come to bruising defenses that bullied Minnesota at the line of scrimmage. Dallas can’t do that. I don’t trust JJ McCarthy, but I think the offense can do enough to at least keep it close. VIKINGS +6
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Dolphins at Steelers
This is why I was heavily invested in the Bengals winning last week. I don’t want Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the postseason. They are both so frustrating offensively. Look at the current AFC playoff field. Not even one of those offenses gives you a jolt of excitement outside of Josh Allen. We need the Bengals to liven up the party. Anyway, TJ Watt is out with a collapsed lung. I’m no doctor, but how does such a mistake happen? This is Miami’s Super Bowl. They can’t really make the playoffs because they have no wins against playoff contenders outside of Buffalo, so this is their moment. DOLPHINS +3