Minnesota’s mistake, a potential draft disaster, and a certain type of unbalanced offense is a death knell.
I took a week off to reset the mojo. It kind of worked. Finally had a winning record. I can show proof if you require.
Week 12: 7 – 7 – 0
Last Week: 9 – 6 – 1
Season: 89 – 102 – 3
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
Cowboys 30 at Lions 44
Detroit avoided the mistake that doomed the Eagles two weeks ago. Instead of playing conservatively with a lead, the Lions threw the football when they needed a big play. The Cowboys defense is bad, especially against the pass. The Eagles tried to run out the clock instead of keeping Dallas on their heels. Dak Prescott and the offense threatened but never could fully catch up. Good luck to Dallas if they want to commit a ton of money to George Pickens. It took three months, but the real Pickens made a few appearances in the biggest game of the season.
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Seahawks at Falcons
The Seattle defense is contender worthy but I’m pretty much out on the Seahawks offense. Sam Darnold is a baseball quarterback. As soon as baseball season ends, Darnold just isn’t the same. Since the World Series ended, Darnold has averaged just over 200 yards per game and only three touchdowns to five interceptions. FALCONS +7
Bengals at Bills
Buffalo’s defense is a problem, and the Bengals offense worked out a lot of the Joe Burrow rust on Thanksgiving. Add on how bad the AFC North has been, and Cincinnati has a real shot at the division with a win. I think they get it. BENGALS +6
Titans at Browns
It’s completely foolish and unfair to judge a draft after less than eight months. With that said, the top three picks of the 2025 NFL Draft are… (awkward smile emoji) … Plenty of time to turn it around, but Cam Ward looks completely lost, Travis Hunter had little to no impact before his injury, and Abdul Carter can’t tell time. Not great. BROWNS -4
Commanders at Vikings
These two teams combined to go 26-8 a year ago. They currently sit at 7-17. It’s hard to be good in the NFL. It’s even harder to stay good. I don’t want to say Minnesota badly mismanaged their QB situation. That’s probably too harsh. On the other hand, they surely misjudged the JJ McCarthy pick and then doubled down on that mistake by letting both Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones walk in the offseason. As I mentioned a few weeks back, history proves you must take quarterbacks in the first round if you want a starting NFL quarterback, but man is it devastating when you miss. There’s still plenty of time for McCarthy to get right but burning an entire season with a playoff roster is tough to swallow. VIKINGS +1.5
Dolphins at Jets
Has Mike McDaniel saved his job? The Dolphins have won four of five and the team plays hard and invested. I thought that roster was dead and had given up on McDaniel. Miami could sniff a winning record if they stay hot. It’ll be interesting to see what the Dolphins do with McDaniel. If he is let go, he’d likely be the most sought after coordinator in the offseason. DOLPHINS -3
Saints at Buccaneers
Tyler Shough has shown noticeable improvement over the last three games. With New Orleans destined for a top five pick, Shough has to make it abundantly clear that he is the future at the position. Otherwise, Kellen Moore and the Saints have to take a quarterback. Shough was an early 2nd rounder, so the franchise certainly has an investment in him, but they need to be almost completely convinced on him in order to pass up a top five talent in the 2026 draft. BUCCANEERS -8
Colts at Jaguars
I love this game. I can’t wait. I am incredibly impressed by how Jacksonville rallied since that horrific collapse to the Texans a month ago. I don’t even know if the Jaguars are good, but they find a way to win amid the Trevor Lawrence turnovers and defensive collapses. I know Daniel Jones is injured and this isn’t completely on him, but this is what happens when you can’t balance an offense. The Eagles are struggling in the same manner. If the opposing defense can bottle up the Colts run game, then they can challenge a flawed quarterback to beat them. When Jonathan Taylor rushes for more than 100 yards, the Colts are 5-0. When he doesn’t, they are 3-4. Wins and losses aren’t really that simple, but they kind of are at the same time. JAGUARS +2
Steelers at Ravens
Such an incredibly loaded slate this week. Would I have preferred for the Bengals/Bills to be moved to later in the afternoon as an insurance policy? Yes, but I’m not complaining. If you’re a Bengals fan, you want a Ravens win here to bring Pittsburgh’s division record down and because the Steelers have a lighter schedule the rest of the way. As awesome as the Pittsburgh/Baltimore rivalry has been through the years, I can’t remember a time when both teams are as miserable to watch as right now. The defenses aren’t very good. The offenses are stuck in mud, and both fan bases have grown tired of very successful coaches. STEELERS +6
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Broncos at Raiders
Denver won’t win a playoff game. I welcome you to throw this in my face 40 days from now. The Broncos beat good and bad teams by the skin of their teeth. Yes, those wins count all the same but outside of a very good defense, Denver isn’t an elite team. RAIDERS +7.5
Bears at Packers
Earlier I mentioned how an unbalanced offense can spell doom, but it’s important to pay attention to how an offense is unbalanced. A team that struggles to throw the ball well but can produce on the ground is significantly more dangerous than one that can’t run. A running game can produce effective and timely pass plays. A running game can control the game and press the opposing offense. A running game is a form of domination that grinds away at the opponent and slowly steals their mental and physical energy. It’s the greatest way to win in the NFL, in my opinion. It’s what made the 2024 Eagles so great. Chicago isn’t very good in other phases of the game, but their dominating run game hides so many of their flaws. I think the Packers limit the damage from the run game and expose the Bears a bit. BEARS +6.5
Rams at Cardinals
I still believe the Rams are the team to beat in the NFC but the Panthers bullied them last week. The Matthew Stafford turnovers aren’t a concern to me. He’s a great quarterback who had a bad week. The Los Angeles defense not being able to get off the field in the clutch is another story. Carolina ran 34 plays in the 2nd half and controlled the clock by a 2:1 ratio. Their only punt came after a sack and penalty pushed the Panthers into a 55-yard field goal opportunity which they opted to punt instead. I think homefield advantage is more important to the Rams than any other NFC team with Detroit a close second. RAMS -8.5
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Texans at Chiefs
Outside of Rashee Rice I don’t enjoy the Chiefs viewing experience, and I don’t even hate the Chiefs like most everyone else. This is pretty much win or go home for the three-time defending AFC champions. I thought Kansas City turned a corner and wouldn’t look back after getting Rice back, but Patrick Mahomes has struggled for a solid month, and the defense has been unable to get stops outside of the Colts game. The team is battling; I will give Andy Reid and that roster credit for that. They’re not splintering from within like Philadelphia, but it does seem like the rope is slipping out of the Chiefs hands. Staying on top in the NFL for that long is exhausting. Kansas City looks tired. TEXANS +3.5
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Eagles at Chargers
I think the Eagles are talented enough to beat every team in the NFL. I also think the Eagles are so disjointed that they could lose to any team in the NFL. I have no idea what this week will bring. I thought two consecutive losses in embarrassing fashion in front of a national audience would compel owner Jeffrey Lurie to make some changes. No changes were made publicly. Maybe some were made, maybe not, but there were no clear indications either way. Which leads me to believe something was done. Regardless, this is where the defending champs find themselves; still lost three months into a season. The defense is very banged up, and the offense hasn’t improved at all. I am wishful but not optimistic. Dallas losing may be our only win for the week. EAGLES -2.5