Bryce Young may be the future in Carolina after all, Kyler Murray is not MVP worthy and I still need the Bills to convince me.
(I took it on the chin last week. Turns out making picks on a whim is bad business.)
Last Week: 6 – 10 – 0
Season: 111 – 81 – 3
Thursday (8:15PM ET)
Packers 31 at Lions 34
Dan Campbell is a crazy person. Maybe the aggressiveness comes back to haunt him down the road, but it won Detroit the game last night and all but clinched the top seed in the NFC. (The Eagles needed a Packers win to have the tiebreaker. Now they don’t, so they would need to finish a full game ahead of the Lions.) Detroit is as tough as they come in the NFL, which isn’t very common for a dome team. Unfortunately for Detroit, their greatest weakness right now keeps getting weaker as the defensive injuries continue to mount. I know the secondary is a questionable unit as well. However, I’m not convinced there’s a quarterback in the NFC capable of exploiting that unit outside of Matthew Stafford, and he’s struggled more than normal this season. Maybe Baker Mayfield if Chris Godwin comes back. I don’t know. So while I think the secondary is an issue, I don’t think it’s as critical as it would be due to the lack of elite QB play in the conference.
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Jaguars at Titans
I understand protecting the quarterbacks in the pocket where they’re blind and completely vulnerable, but once the quarterback becomes a runner we have to stop protecting them as if they’re still vulnerable in the pocket. They should be treated as a runner for the good of the game and their own protection. The hit on Trevor Lawrence last week was unnecessary and illegal but it could’ve been easily avoided if we treated a scrambling quarterback as a runner. Surrendering yourself like that is only safe if the other party submits to the same rules. It’s like flying through a green light. You’re gonna get killed if the crossroad driver decides he doesn’t want to stop on red. Azeez Al-Shaair ran the light last week and Lawrence paid the price. TITANS -3
Jets at Dolphins
I don’t buy into the cold weather issues for the Dolphins. It has nothing to do with the weather and everything to do with their mentality. That franchise lacks a mental toughness from the top down. Brian Flores was chased out of town for being too tough. Your franchise quarterback did a TV feature on how his previous coach was demeaning and too hard on him. Come on. You think it’s the weather that turns this team to mush? DOLPHINS -5.5
Falcons at Vikings
I’d trust the Vikings more as a playoff threat if their ground game was better. That may be a little unfair to Sam Darnold this late in the season, but we all know that’s what this will boil down to in the postseason. Look at it this way, six of the top ten rushing offenses in the NFL could be in the NFC playoffs (PHI, WSH, DET, GB, AZ, TB). That means the Vikings offense could face limited opportunities, forcing Darnold to be aggressive if the ground game isn’t churning out yardage. Yes, Minnesota’s defense is tops against the run, so maybe they neutralize a great rushing offense, but I still think the Vikings playoff success lives and dies with Darnold. (I hate taking this Atlanta team but it’s the Kirk Cousins revenge game and seven of the Vikings last nine were one score games.) FALCONS +6
Saints at Giants
New Orleans was in complete control at halftime last week against the Rams with their season on the line but couldn’t find the end zone. Then the defense collapsed in the 2nd half and now they need a dozen miracles to have a shot in the NFC South. This is likely the beginning of a 20 month hibernation for New Orleans. They’re not very good. They lack a franchise cornerstone at the critical positions. They are over the cap next year by a whopping $62 million. They have to unload whatever veteran assets they can, bring in a young coach, and build around the 2025 and 2026 draft. The band-aids didn’t work and now they need to come off. Time to bleed out and start over. SAINTS -5
Panthers at Eagles
Speaking of starting over… the Panthers may not need to start over after all.
QB 1: 91/147 62% 947 5/0
QB 2: 78/132 59% 858 4/1
QB 3: 84/134 63% 978 4/5
QB 4: 89/134 66% 874 6/4
QB 5: 90/131 69% 926 5/4
Those are the stats over the last four games of five different NFL starting quarterbacks. Can you guess which one is Bryce Young? The answer is QB 2. QB 1 is Caleb Williams. QBs 3 through 5 are CJ Stroud, Jayden Daniels and Drake May, respectively. Young isn’t getting much help from the NFL or his receivers, either. I still don’t know how the Adam Thielen touchdown was ruled incomplete and the other Carolina receivers LOVE to drop the football. It’s only four games, but Young is playing at an NFL starting quarterback level and he looks comfortable and confident. This could be an interesting test for the Eagles. Detroit’s win over Green Bay almost certainly clinched the top seed and destined the Eagles for number two. It’d be human nature to come out flat, but I think the Eagles are locked in and will be determined to bury a lesser team. Carolina can’t stop the run, so I would start there if I were Nick Sirianni and see if I can buy Saquon Barkley a well deserved 4th quarter rest. EAGLES -13.5
Browns at Steelers
The Bengals defense is atrocious. Regardless, I was still shocked by how explosive Russell Wilson and the Steelers offense looked last week. I picked the Bengals because I didn’t think Pittsburgh could keep up, but they did and they did it with ease. George Pickens is the worst kind of crazy receiver because he isn’t aware he’s crazy. After every decent play he does something indefensibly stupid and then looks shocked when he’s flagged or Mike Tomlin is in his ear. It’s quite funny, unless you are a Steeler fan, because at some point that’s going to hurt in a big, big way. STEELERS -6.5
Raiders at Buccaneers
Tampa Bay survived in Carolina thanks in part to a great performance by Bucky Irving and the aforementioned Thielen controversy. I still like the Buccaneers to win the South but the lack of receiving talent is starting to take its toll on Baker Mayfield. He was off last week even with Mike Evans back. BUCCANEERS -6.5
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Seahawks at Cardinals
I heard someone on ESPN offer that Kyler Murray belongs among those in the MVP conversation. I had to rewind to make sure I heard that correctly. Murray cost the Cardinals the game in Seattle two weeks ago and threw interceptions on two of the Cardinals last three possessions last week in Minnesota. Yes, the final interception can be excused as it was 4th down, but the throw was horrible and he did nothing on the three previous plays to better the Cardinals chances of converting. If you didn’t watch, Arizona got the football back down 22-23 with 1:13 to go and all three timeouts remaining. The drive lasted only four plays; a 5 yard pass, sack, 3 yard rush, interception. Yup, MVP caliber stuff right there. CARDINALS -2.5
Bills at Rams
Josh Allen is great. The Bills are great. Yup… but are we sure? I kind of think the Bills are overrated. Allen is good enough to win them a Super Bowl regardless, but at some point he’s going to need help and I don’t know where it’s going to come from in the passing game. Dalton Kincaid has been a quiet bust, Amari Cooper hasn’t added much, and the rookie Keon Coleman has been up and down and injured. The next two weeks will show us a lot about who the Bills really are in terms of true contenders. I am not entirely convinced just yet. RAMS +3.5
Bears at 49ers
The 49ers ruined a great football atmosphere last week by being horrible and the Bears franchise quarterback is whining about getting hit while on the football field. You both can go home and try again next year. BEARS +3.5
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Chargers at Chiefs
I’ve heard a number of comparisons between this year’s Chiefs and the 2023 Eagles. I can see the similarities but I don’t think it’s the same. That Eagles team was immensely talented (at least on offense) and the wheels just came off. They couldn’t sustain any kind of flow. They never recovered. This injury depleted Chiefs offense isn’t talented outside of Patrick Mahomes. They’re fighting tooth and nail for points. The defense gives them a chance and more often than not, they pounce, but this isn’t an underachieving offense like the Eagles last season. The frustration is certainly mounting but there isn’t despair and confusion like in Philadelphia. I guess Isiah Pacheco was on a pitch count last week, but his full return should give the offense one thing they can rely on to move the football. From there the play action and deep shots will evolve. This is a big game, though. The Eagles collapsed after essentially losing the one seed to the 49ers. Holding onto to that seemed to be their lifeblood and it feels like the Chiefs are in a similar spot with the Bills right on their heels. CHARGERS +4
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Bengals at Cowboys
Who exactly is the Simpsons game for? Do young children watch the Simpsons? Do grown adults who love animated series gravitate towards football? I sincerely don’t know the answer to these questions but I’m guessing no. Also, the Simpsons aren’t on FOX anymore? I don’t understand these crossover events. I’ll watch this game because the Bengals offense is electric and watching the Cowboys potentially weaken their draft pick is enjoyable too, but it would have been nice to see a better game flexed here. COWBOYS +5