The holiday snuck up on me again, so I had to rapid-fire the picks this week. Have a Happy Thanksgiving.
Last Week: 10 – 3 – 0
Season: 105 – 71 – 3
Thursday (Thanksgiving Day)
Bears at Lions
The Bears keep finding ways to lose. The Lions keep blowing the doors off their opponents. I’m tempted to take the Bears here but I’d need more than 10 to feel good about it. LIONS -9.5
Giants at Cowboys
I agree completely with Malik Nabers. You don’t ignore your best player for an entire half. It’s bad coaching, bad play calling, bad scheming; whatever you want to call it. It’s bad. Brian Daboll has earned his firing. COWBOYS -3.5
Dolphins at Packers
Josh Jacobs has been carrying the Packers and would be an MVP candidate if Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley weren’t setting the world on fire. With that said, I think Green Bay is a bit overrated and Miami needs wins to stay alive. DOLPHINS +3.5
Friday (3:00PM ET)
Raiders at Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes wants to blowout teams again. This is a great week to start. The Raiders allow over four touchdowns per game; 4th worst in the league. Their scoring margin is 3rd worst (-9.8). Getting Isiah Pacheco back will also be a big boost. Kareem Hunt lacks the burst to hit holes and thus is unable to break the big runs. A lot of those 6-8 yard runs from Hunt will be 15+ yard gains with Pacheco. CHIEFS -13
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Chargers at Falcons
I still think the Chargers are good, but I don’t like a team traveling across the country after a holiday on the heels of a national TV debacle to face a pretty desperate team coming off a bye. FALCONS +1
Steelers at Bengals
Pittsburgh will make the playoffs but the wheels will start wobbling and eventually fall off down the stretch here. I do not doubt Mike Tomlin. I doubt the quarterback position. That chariot is looking more and more like a pumpkin each week. BENGALS -3
Cardinals at Vikings
I finally believed in Kyle Murray and the Cardinals and they stunk. More specifically, Murray and the running game stunk. Okay, Murray wasn’t horrible, but he had two back-breaking mistakes and Arizona just isn’t good enough to survive significant miscues. I’d love to hear what the Cardinal front office whispers behind close doors about draft night regrets. Malik Nabers would be perfect for this offense. I should check the All-22, but it doesn’t seem like Marvin Harrison Jr. gets any separation. I’m giving Kyler another shot, mostly because I don’t trust Sam Darnold. CARDINALS +3.5
Colts at Patriots
I think the Giants are the worst team in football. The Patriots are in contention though. COLTS -2.5
Seahawks at Jets
The Jets are this season’s 1-2-3 Cancun team. I can’t imagine the extent of eye rolls whenever Aaron Rodgers or Davante Adams open their mouths. It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish, and these two future Hall of Famers tarnished their legacies with their performances on and off the field over the last year or so. SEAHAWKS -2
Titans at Commanders
The Titans are fun. Will Levis is a menace to every team on the field, his own included. His deep throws are as beautiful as his turnovers are disastrous. I would love to know the last time a top ranked defense by almost every measure was five games under .500. TITANS +5.5
Texans at Jaguars
I think I may be right about Houston. They just don’t have it. Maybe it’s all the injuries. Maybe it’s CJ Stroud’s sophomore slump. It’s probably a combination of all of that, but they look like a team suffering whether they win or lose. TEXANS -4
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Rams at Saints
I think the Rams may stink. I’m pretty sure I said they would win the division a few weeks back. I expected the defense to have its ups and downs but the offense has been wildly inconsistent. They’re too talented for that and I don’t understand the struggles. SAINTS +2.5
Buccaneers at Panthers
Bryce Young looked very competent last week against one of the NFL’s best defenses. He looked composed. He played within his abilities. He extended plays. He made some impressive throws. At the very least, he’s given Carolina something to consider after looking like a complete write-off two months ago. PANTHERS +5.5
Eagles at Ravens
Baltimore is 2nd best at stopping the run and 2nd worst against the pass. That’s not a good combination for the Eagles. Jalen Hurts has played well, but leaning on him to win a game has not been Philadelphia’s best recipe for success. Add in the Brandon Graham injury and the division falling off behind them and I think the Eagles go down. I just don’t think they’ll pressure Lamar Jackson enough. I also fear that Nick Sirianni will abandon the run game too early. RAVENS -3
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
49ers at Bills
If the 49ers are relatively healthy this week, I’d expect a much better showing. On the other hand, that defense was horrible last week. The offense was going to need a great effort from the defense to have any chance and the defense fell flat. The bad vibes team keeps vibing in the wrong direction. BILLS -7
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Browns at Broncos
Denver has one win against a playoff team (Atlanta). I like Denver and Bo Nix, and that defense most of all, but that’s a little concerning. After this week, the Broncos have the Colts, @Chargers, @Bengals and Chiefs on deck. The last one may be a freebie, so they may only need a single win from the other three to cement a playoff berth. BRONCOS -5.5