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Week 12 NFL Picks

The Buccaneers can’t win the NFC South, I’m out on Houston and don’t fret about $10.5 million to a teenager becoming the norm in college football.

Last Week:  11 – 3 – 0
Season:       95 – 68 – 3

Thursday (8:15PM ET)

Steelers 19 at Browns 24
What a fun game. Football should always be played outdoors. If you wanted to know how much the Steelers believe in Russell Wilson, last night showed you. Over the course of two separate hurry-up drives, the Steelers inserted their backup quarterback three times and ran the football another two or three times. Pittsburgh is a very good football team but there is too much pressure on their defense to keep the opponent under 20 points. I also don’t understand why they don’t get George Pickens Jr. involved more. For his lanky build, he’s quite good after the catch and he’s tough, too. This is what Arthur Smith does though. He did the same in Atlanta; teases you with talent but won’t use it enough.

Early Games (1:00PM ET)

Vikings at Bears
I think Minnesota is trending down. The offense has been in a rut for almost a month and that falls squarely at the feet of Sam Darnold. He looks uncomfortable. He’s missing throws he was making in September and early October. Minnesota’s 3rd down conversion rate and scoring are heading in the opposite direction of good. The offense is giving the ball away more than any team in the league outside of Tennessee, Dallas and Las Vegas. On a positive note, the defense leads the league in turnovers and is 4th in scoring, so you can see the margin of error the offense is permitted thanks to that great Brian Flores unit. BEARS +3.5

Lions at Colts
It’s funny how we overrate wins against teams we all hate or are sick of hearing about. The Jets are that team. We’re tired of the drama. Tired of the lies about how they’re going to turn it around. Tired of all the talk about the immense talent on the roster and how this personnel move will fix everything. That’s what happened last week. Anthony Richardson and the Colts victory over the Jets impressed me. Then I remembered the Jets stink. They’re a train wreck and the Colts needed a last second score to win the game. Richardson did in fact perform well, so that’s encouraging for Indianapolis, but I’m not going to let that win move the needle. LIONS -7

Patriots at Dolphins
I can’t stand coaches trash-talking opposing players unless it’s in a fun, self-deprecating type of way. Maybe Max Crosby and Mike McDaniel have a relationship and if that’s the case I retract my feelings, but don’t talk trash when you’re not in uniform. Nick Sirianni does this and it’s the worst. Anyway, in a week of lackluster matchups, this one may be intriguing. Drake Maye looks like the best quarterback of the class right now and Miami is still riding a hope and prayer for a playoff berth. DOLPHINS -7

Buccaneers at Giants
Your (former) franchise quarterback reads a goodbye statement with seven weeks left in the season. Your backup is complaining about being passed over for the starting job. I think I said the Giants were a good team at least three times this season. There’s a reason this content is free. Tampa Bay is a popular pick to retake the NFC South. I don’t see it, and not because I love Atlanta or doubt the Buccaneers. The schedule just won’t allow it. After the Chargers and Vikings, the Falcons end the season with the Raiders, Giants and Panthers over a four week stretch with the Commanders sandwiched in there. At worst, Atlanta probably finishes the year with nine wins. With two losses to Atlanta, Tampa Bay would need to finish 6-1 to get to 10-7 and win the division. Their schedule certainly allows for that possibility but there’s just no room for error for a team already shorthanded. BUCCANEERS -6

Cowboys at Commanders
I obviously hate the Cowboys, but having them DOA so early in the season is a little less fun than watching them collapse in the playoffs. Having to root for them in situations like this is also a gross feeling. Washington has been bad for over a month now, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Given how much they depend on Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz in the passing game it makes you realize how poorly they thought of Jahan Dotson. COMMANDERS -10

Chiefs at Panthers
Kansas City is in that zone where I could see them lose to any team at any time right now. With the undefeated season gone, I wonder if things get even bumpier. I’m not talking off the rails like the 2023 Eagles, but the Chiefs have been walking the tightrope for awhile now. I thought Andy Reid called a poor game last Sunday. Kareem Hunt hasn’t been awesome, but he had his best yards per carry since September and the Chiefs just abandoned the run game for the better part of the 2nd half. Kansas City desperately needs Isiah Pacheco back to suck in the linebackers and open up the middle of the field for Patrick Mahomes and the offense. PANTHERS +10.5

Titans at Texans
I try every week to understand what people see about Houston as a sneaky AFC title contender and the only thing I love about them is Joe Mixon. The defense is a top ten unit in almost every category and the offense has held its own despite a plethora of injuries. The stats say it’s all there and yet I don’t see it on the field. I don’t trust CJ Stroud like I did a year ago. I think the secondary is vulnerable despite the rankings. Truth is, they haven’t beaten a good team this season outside of the victory over Buffalo thanks in large part to Sean McDermott’s brain melting down late in the 4th quarter. I’m prepared to be loud wrong on this, but I can’t get behind Houston. TITANS +7.5

Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)

Broncos at Raiders
I don’t think crushing Atlanta fully qualifies as a signature win, but it’s close enough that everyone now sees Bo Nix and the Broncos as a legitimate playoff team in the AFC. Denver has all the makings of a feisty, you-don’t-want-to-see-them-in-January team except they’re missing one thing; a run game. Sean Payton has tried every back on his roster and they just can’t seem to establish any kind of consistent run game. BRONCOS -6

49ers at Packers
The 49ers are in last place in the NFC West and own the worst division record of the four teams. The climb back into the playoffs won’t be easy, especially with the Wild Card berths currently settling at seven wins. The schedule will not be kind to San Francisco either as they play both the Bills and Lions. While the stats don’t back this up, I think the 49ers biggest issue is their inability to run the football. If you remove the Dallas blowout, San Francisco’s top back in their last three outings (KC, TB, SEA) has averaged 4.1, 3.0, and 4.2 yards per carry. Christian McCaffrey averaged 5.4 in 2023 and Jordan Mason averaged 5.3 before his shoulder injury this season. Brock Purdy can’t carry this offense, especially with the constant injuries at tight end and receiver. The ground game has to get back to that 5 yards per carry level if the 49ers are going to climb their way back into the postseason. 49ERS +3.5

Cardinals at Seahawks
I can’t figure these teams out. The Seahawks offense should be unstoppable and they are buns half the time. Arizona keeps moving the football despite very little production from their receivers. I’ll keep trying to understand these teams. In the meantime, can we talk about the $10.5 million NIL deal the Michigan quarterback just got? I’m happy for the kid, but there is no way this continues because I don’t think 18 year-old kids can possibly live up to the pressure of that kind of money. Think about all the five star quarterbacks around the country. How many of them live up to those stars? Look at the Texas A&M kid, or the one at Oklahoma or even Clemson. I’m purposely not naming these guys because I feel bad, but UCLA, USC and Alabama all have five star QBS that have yet to deliver after two or three seasons. Yes, I said “yet,” so things can change, but imagine the pressure on this $10.5 million kid if he isn’t running through the BIG Ten after a season or two? Everyone is worried about these deals only going higher in the future and how that will ruin the sport. I see it the opposite. I think these deals will only get lower in the coming years as players fail to deliver and boosters/schools realize the production isn’t worth the pay. CARDINALS +1

Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)

Eagles at Rams
The young Philadelphia secondary limited Ja’Marr Chase, shut down Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers. This is their first test against an elite duo of receivers. (Remember Tee Higgins did not play last month.) Not only am I intrigued to see how they perform against Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, but also how a veteran quarterback like Matthew Stafford and en elite schemer like Sean McVay attack the Eagles rookies. I’m quite certain they will attack via the air though, as the Rams are 30th in yards per rush and the Eagle defense is 7th against the rush. The Eagles pass rush must produce. EAGLES -3

Monday Night (8:15PM ET)

Ravens at Chargers
What an embarrassing performance by the Ravens last week. Despite their putrid output, I still went away thinking Baltimore was the right pick. Two missed field goals, careless turnovers, inexplicable drops, Lamar Jackson playing like he was punch drunk and the Ravens still had a chance to win the game. I generally hate 12 personnel, but I think Baltimore may want to settle things down for a stretch and Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely (despite the fumble) are Jackson’s most reliable receiving targets. Whatever is off with Jackson needs to get right before a playoff run. RAVENS -2.5

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