Don’t even read the picks this week. They’re worthless. Just listen to Mike Tyson and go about your life.
Last Week: 7 – 7 – 0
Season: 84 – 65 – 3
Thursday (8:15PM ET)
Commanders 18 at Eagles 26
A great win for the Eagles over their biggest threat in the NFC East. The defense was again great. As I’ve mentioned many times this season, Saquon Barkley epitomizes the Pounding the Rock philosophy. Keep giving him opportunities and eventually you’ll get the big play. Unfortunately, Jalen Hurts was really bad for an entire half again. He seems to second-guess everything he sees and is therefore slow to get the ball out. He’s missing open guys. If the Eagles have any shot against Detroit, they can’t have their quarterback no-showing an entire half. Given their respective schedules, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the rematch in late December is for the division. The Eagles have a tough slate ahead that will likely result in a loss or two and the Commanders have nothing but cupcakes and a bye.
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Packers at Bears
The Packers need 2nd half of the 2023 season Jordan Love to make an appearance if they are to have any shot in the postseason. Love hasn’t been terrible, but his production is all done by a noticeable margin. He’s already one interception shy of his 2023 season total and not even halfway to his 2023 touchdown output. His completion percentage, QBR and Passer Rating are all below last year’s numbers as well. Is this the product of the knee injury from Week 1? BEARS +5.5
Jaguars at Lions
I know the Lions look like the best team in the league and all, but they have a slight tinge of 2023 Eagles to them. Yes, they’re winning, but their offense seems slightly off. They can’t seem to get Amon-Ra St. Brown as involved as he was a season ago (he’s at 1/3 of his ’23 output) and until last week Sam Laporta was a ghost. If I were the Lions, I’d get Jahmyr Gibbs’ touches up. He’s had 20 or more touches only once this season. While that’s not any different from a year ago, Gibbs is their most explosive threat, and if they can’t get the ball to St. Brown or Laporta like they did a year ago then just hand it to Gibbs. LIONS -13.5
Vikings at Titans
After appearing to turn his career around, Sam Darnold began to unravel in Carolina around Week 7 back in 2021. He made it to Week 9 this season before the ride got really rough. Five interceptions in two weeks and an offense that couldn’t find the end zone against the league’s worst defense is not encouraging for a team with playoff aspirations. VIKINGS -6
Raiders at Dolphins
I’ve been very critical of Mike McDaniel but his team has not given up on the season despite a plethora of injuries and distractions. Miami could very easily climb their way back into the playoff hunt by winning three of four over the next month. The schedule stiffens after that with the Texans and 49ers but I’m not writing off the Dolphins just yet. I’ve liked what I’ve seen the last three weeks. DOLPHINS -7
Rams at Patriots
The Rams blew it Monday night. I really thought they had it figured out. They are by no means done, but with the Eagles, Bills and 49ers on deck over the next month you can’t be dropping home games to 2-6 teams. RAMS -4.5
Browns at Saints
I would like to see Nick Chubb look like himself again. Not sure if that will ever happen but here’s to hoping. BROWNS -1
Colts at Jets
I’ll take the L here. I was begging for the Colts to give Joe Flacco the reins and make a playoff run. They did and Flacco was flat out bad and borderline terrible. This path is probably better for the long term health of the franchise anyway. Find out if there’s a future with Richardson and maybe he grows from the benching. It absolutely won’t be the last time, but when will teams stop wasting a top ten pick on quarterbacks based on physical talent alone? COLTS +4
Ravens at Steelers
If I’m the Steelers, I’m taking deep shots on every drive. The Ravens secondary is a mess and the best shot you have against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense is to take Derrick Henry out of the equation. The only way to do that is to get a big lead early. I’m probably going to look pretty stupid here, but I don’t think the Steelers can hang. RAVENS -3
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Falcons at Broncos
A tremendous late afternoon slate. The NFL owed us this after that slop from last weekend. If Denver had a running game, I would feel much better about their chances to get into the playoffs. The Broncos keep cycling through running backs hoping that one will eventually hit. Last week it was Audric Estime who got the bulk of the carries with uninspiring results. BRONCOS -2
Seahawks at 49ers
The return of Christian McCaffrey did not change the bad vibes for the 49ers. Their special teams imploded and their star receiver attacked their kicker as a result. The head coach then argued that the guy trying to protect the kicker might have overreacted while he was being choked. Good times. SEAHAWKS +6.5
Chiefs at Bills
Buffalo is banged up at receiver and tight end. Their defense has been vulnerable this season. The Chiefs were supposed to lose last week and escaped. I think Patrick Mahomes has a day and Kansas City remains unbeaten. CHIEFS +2
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Bengals at Chargers
All the talk about the Chargers not beating a good quarterback is on the line this week. Jim Harbaugh is obviously a great coach, and he’s not building the Chargers any differently than any of his previous teams – defense, physicality and running the football. I just find it funny that those things travel in football, and given that almost every Charger game is a road game, well, that bodes well for the franchise. CHARGERS -1.5
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Texans at Cowboys
Dallas may be the worst team in the league. I wasn’t buying the Cowboys drop off talk in the offseason. Wow was I wrong. I can’t think of a single thing this team does well outside of Brandon Aubrey. As for the Texans, I’m withholding judgment until Nico Collins returns, but CJ Stroud’s sophomore season is not delivering on the promise of his rookie campaign. TEXANS -7