Assessing the Colts blockbuster, maybe we’re too high on the Patriots, should the Seahawks run game be a concern, and why Rico Dowdle deserves MVP love.
Also, I am bad this season, so .500 last weekend felt like a win.
Last Week: 7 – 7 – 0
Season: 65 – 70 – 0
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
Raiders at Broncos
Brock Bowers put on a show last week, so it made perfect sense for the Raiders to not target him on the game winning two point try. This is the point in the season where I really wish that Las Vegas had taken a 4th round flyer on Shedeur Sanders. Your season is toast. You have no hope under center. Your top 10 pick can’t be effective because he’s contacted behind the line of scrimmage on more than a third of his rushing attempts. Sanders could be the highlight of tonight and the rest of your season, and who knows, maybe you find yourself a starting quarterback along the journey. What’s worse is the Raiders took two quarterbacks in the 6th round. They were clearly taking swings. Why not take one on Sanders? RAIDERS +9.5
Early, Early Game (9:30AM ET)
Falcons at Colts
The Colts made the biggest splash of the trade deadline. I’d argue it was foolish to surrender two first round picks when you don’t have a franchise quarterback on the roster. The Colts are clearly not convinced Anthony Richardson has a future, and if Daniel Jones is your franchise cornerstone then good luck to you. Yes, Jones has proven he is a worthy starter this season, but last week in Pittsburgh was ugly. Jones’ career to this point is 80% failure. On the flip side, here’s how/why the Colts talked themselves into the trade… First, if you’re in need of quarterback, who are you chasing in the NFL Draft over the next two years? Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Allar all went belly up this season. Does that mean none of aforementioned guys will have an NFL career? No, but NFL front offices aren’t lining up to draft them on day one of the draft. Dante Moore started hot but hasn’t set the world on fire since. Fernando Mendoza? Ty Simpson? Even if you like one of those, they probably won’t be around in the 20s. Second, as I just mentioned, the Colts are winning games, so those draft picks will likely end up the 20s. Instead of drafting a couple of starters, why not bring in an all-pro? Sauce Gardner has not been that of late, but players drown in the poison pool of the Jets. A change of scenery and a competitive environment with a team contending for an AFC title will be great medicine for the star corner. Also, Gardner is only 25. So while I don’t love losing two first rounders when the most important position in all of sports isn’t solidified, I can at least see the justification for the move. If Danny Dimes can stay solid, the Colts will be just fine. COLTS -6.5
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Giants at Bears
If the Giants are going to keep rolling with the Brian Daboll/Joe Schoen pairing, then why didn’t they make any trades this week? Your season is lost. The market for defensive lineman was booming. Unloading Kevon Thibodeaux for assets seemed like the right move, especially when you consider it would have allowed Abdul Carter to move to the line full time. Maybe ownership plans to refresh the front office and neutered Schoen and Daboll, which would make sense. BEARS -5
Bills at Dolphins
Buffalo was impressive against the Chiefs. They did what the Eagles did to Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl; pressured with four and didn’t allow him to scramble. It was a statement win and likely secures home field advantage in any postseason matchup with the Chiefs. On the other hand, history has proven that beating Kansas City in the regular season means absolutely nothing. BILLS -9.5
Ravens at Vikings
These are two of the most unpredictable teams of the 2025 season thus far. Minnesota’s defense shut down the Lions last week and yet got their doors blown off by the Chargers the week before and gave life to a struggling Eagles passing offense the week before that. I don’t even know if the Raven defense is capable of playing well three weeks in a row, but we are about to find out. VIKINGS +4
Browns at Jets
The Jets won the trade deadline by selling high on young stars that have slightly declined. Despite some big names, the Jets defense has been disappointing and it was time to commit to starting over. I would identify my starting tackles as the franchise cornerstone, find a veteran quarterback who could thrive behind a solid line, draft another receiver to pair with Garret Wilson, and go from there. BROWNS -1.5
Patriots at Buccaneers
This should be a great matchup with MVP caliber quarterbacks… but will they have anyone to throw to? Kayshon Boutte is likely out for the Patriots and Stefon Diggs is still sitting for over a third of New England’s offensive plays. For the Buccaneers, Emeka Egbuka is finally back to full speed, but Mike Evans will obviously be out and Chris Godwin is still not practicing. I’m not trying to be a hater, but maybe we can slow down just a bit on the Patriots love? Sure, 6-2 is great, but they have only two wins against teams with a winning record, and one of those is against Carolina pre Rico Dowdle. The other four wins came against teams with a combined 9-34 record. BUCCANEERS -2.5
Saints at Panthers
Rico Dowdle doesn’t belong in the same conversation as Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield, but he deserves some MVP caliber love. He’s changed the entire persona of that Panthers offense. They are as bruising and punishing a run attack as there is in the NFL right now. Prior to Dowdle’s insertion into the lineup, Carolina ranked as the 26th rushing offense in the NFL at just over 100 yards per game. They now rank 5th at 139.8 yards per game. Their yards per attempt also jumped nearly a full yard from 3.9 to 4.7. Last but not least, the Panthers are 4-1 over that same stretch. That’s MVP work right there. PANTHERS -5.5
Jaguars at Texans
Trevor Lawrence is Carson Wentz 2.0. I’m ready to never be invested in a Lawrence game ever again. Lawrence’s 2022 campaign isn’t nearly as good as Wentz’s 2017, but the flash of potential followed by years of frustration and disappointment is on par. JAGUARS -1
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Cardinals at Seahawks
Let me get this straight… Kyle Murray had a shot at playing last week and then landed on IR after Jacoby Brissett led the Cardinals to a Monday night victory? This smells like image protection by Murray’s camp. Regardless, the pivot to Brissett is the right move because there is no room for error in the loaded NFC West. As for Seattle, they are the hottest team in the NFC but I’m not ready to declare them favorites. Not even close. That rushing attack is going to a problem down the road. Sam Darnold looks like Joe Montana right now, but he’s flashed early and fizzled late before. He is going to need a balanced offense as the weather cools and defenses tighten. The Seahawks are 31st in rush yards per attempt and both Zach Charbonnet (2nd) and Kenneth Walker III (5th) rank among the top 5 in contact behind the line of scrimmage. That offensive line is generating no push in the run game. CARDINALS +6.5
Rams at 49ers
Puka Nacua is one of/if not the NFL’s biggest, baddest receiver. Yet, he still seems to get hurt every other half. Does he just play too hard? Is his body already breaking down? Does he need to pivot to a Marvin Harrison style of play where he catches, runs and then gets down before any significant contact? I’m not joking. He’s too good and too important to the Rams where they should encourage him to initiate less contact and preserve himself. I don’t like this pick but Kyle Shanahan always finds a way. 49ERS +5.5
Lions at Commanders
The Commanders are so bad. They made all the wrong moves in the offseason and once again failed to protect the franchise’s greatest asset. Keep up the good work, Josh Harris. LIONS -8
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Steelers at Chargers
Speaking of not protecting the franchise quarterback… the Chargers are in a real pickle as their offensive line continues to crumble. Help is not on the way either, as Omarion Hampton is expected to miss at least another three weeks. I know Justin Herbert isn’t a young rookie or anything like that, but he’s shown a tendency to noticeably digress when heavily pressured. Jim Harbaugh must make protecting Herbert the biggest priority for the rest of the season. All quarterbacks struggle when pressured, but the swings for Herbert are as drastic as any player in the NFL. STEELERS +3
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Eagles at Packers
Green Bay is a very good football team with three of the most befuddling outcomes of the 2025 season. They lost to a dreadful Browns team thanks to a total collapse in the final minutes. Their vaunted defense then no-showed the 2nd half in Dallas a week later which led to a tie. Last week, thanks in large part to two turnovers and a missed field goal, the Packers managed only 13 points despite never punting in a loss to a Carolina team that could only muster 102 passing yards. Despite how much everyone loves the depth of Green Bay’s receiving corps., I think you really need a number one go to guy in the NFL. It’s like a pitching rotation in baseball. If you don’t have an ace you’re just not going to excel in the biggest games when it matters most. Tucker Kraft was probably the closest thing to an ace for Jordan Love and he’s done for the year. The Packers are an enigma. EAGLES -1.5