It’s Week One and the picks are… uneducated. Bring on football.
Going with my Over/Under win totals again because I need some content for Week 1 AND I went 21-11 last season. Did I total up the wins and make sure my selections are mathematically possible? I 100% did not. That’s too much like homework.
Last Season: 153 – 113 – 6
Season: 1 – 0 – 0
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
Cowboys 20 at Eagles 24
Welp, the second outside corner is a real problem and the offense was a little perplexing. My two biggest adjustments for Week 2 would be: 1. Target number 11. I think he’s pretty good. 2. Kindly ask your most impactful player not to spit on anyone.
Cowboys over 7.5
Eagles over 11.5
Friday (6:00PM ET)
Chiefs at Chargers (In Brazil)
Not a ton of love for the Chargers out in the streets but Vegas isn’t budging. Neither am I. Jim Harbaugh teams don’t regress like that. I love bringing Keenan Allen back to help Justin Herbert find his early 2020s mojo. CHIEFS -3
Chargers over 9.5
Chiefs over 11.5
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Buccaneers at Falcons
Baker Mayfield has his third offensive coordinator in three years since coming to Tampa Bay. I’m not worried but there may be a twinge of concern. I’d be very concerned if I were a Falcons fan. No money. No first round pick in ’26. No right tackle. BUCCANEERS -1.5
Buccaneers over 9.5
Falcons under 8
Bengals at Browns
The Browns will be better than everyone thinks. This is just how the NFL works. That’s the only explanation I have. BROWNS +5
Bengals over 9.5
Browns over 5.5
Dolphins at Colts
Expect a nice bounce back season from Michael Pittman Jr. It’d be nice to see one from Jaylen Waddle, too, but nothing seems to go right in Miami under Mike McDaniel. COLTS -1.5
Dolphins under 8.5
Colts under 7.5
Raiders at Patriots
I really like both of these new coaches. Not sure I feel great about either team. Geno Smith won’t have the talent on the outside he had in Seattle but Brock Bowers is the nicest security blanket in the NFL. RAIDERS +2.5
Raiders under 7.5
Patriots under 7.5
Cardinals at Saints
It can’t feel great to draft a QB in the second round and then have a long-term need at QB before the season even starts. CARDINALS -6
Cardinals under 8.5
Saints under 5.5
Steelers at Jets
The Jets have had the talent the past three years. Is this the year it finally turns into wins? I’m going to boldly declare.. maybe. Justin Fields isn’t my favorite option at quarterback but if the Jets can get that talented backfield firing they should be in good enough shape to still be in the wildcard hunt come Thanksgiving. JETS +3
Steelers over 8.5
Jets over 5.5
Giants at Commanders
Russell Wilson must be so grateful this one isn’t at home because the over/under on how many three-and-outs before Giants fans start clamoring for Jaxson Dart is 1.5. GIANTS +5.5
Giants over 5.5
Commanders under 9.5
Panthers at Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence fell off a cliff in 2023 and fell further in 2024. Somehow he managed a new commercial at the onset of the 2025 season. Travis Hunter really is the best teammate. JAGUARS -4
Panthers under 6.5
Jaguars over 7.5
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Titans at Broncos
There’s always one Week 1 head scratcher and I wonder if this is it. I don’t have the courage, but as I mentioned yesterday, Denver’s offense could be a one-dimensional mess this season. BRONCOS -8.5
Titans under 5.5
Broncos under 9
49ers at Seahawks
The 49ers have already triggered a panic by listing Christian McCaffrey’s calf on this week’s injury report. New year, same problems. The 49ers are cursed. 49ERS -1.5
49ers under 10.5
Seahawks under 8.5
Lions at Packers
I think the Packers could be really, really special in 2025. Everyone talks about the Rams almost knocking off the Eagles in last year’s playoffs but that was the snow. No team battled the Eagles as tightly as the Packers in 2024. I can’t figure out the 9.5 Green Bay win total. My belief in Green Bay must be wrong. PACKERS -2.5
Lions over 10.5
Packers over 9.5
Texans at Rams
The Joe Mixon absence is perplexing. CJ Stroud behind that offensive line without a run game is a big concern. I know the defense will be awesome but double digit wins is too much for me without a steady ground attack. I’m a chicken. TEXANS +2.5
Texans under 9.5
Rams under 9.5
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Ravens at Bills
I love both teams this year and that’s great news because I’m way too heavy on unders this season. BILLS -1.5
Ravens over 11.5
Bills over 11.5
Monday Night (6:20PM ET)
Vikings at Bears
Chicago continues to build a fantasy roster while their lines on both sides of the ball underwhelm. That’s not a winning formula in the NFL. The Vikings are hoping a 2nd year rookie quarterback doesn’t scuttle their entire season. I certainly can’t afford two more unders so I’m trusting Kevin O’Connell to figure something out. VIKINGS -1.5
Vikings over 8.5
Bears under 8.5