Listen, you can’t overthink Week 1, which is a more polished way of saying I have no idea what’s going down this week, so let’s just let it rip.
[Editor’s Note: This post was published 9/6/24 here and then moved.] If you don’t believe me, do you really think I would post NFL picks a week later and still go 8-7-1 and take the Bengals and Giants again?
We’re running back the over/under guesses from last season because I didn’t completely embarrass myself. I went 17-15 in 2023. A lousy 6-10 in the NFC (including 1-3 in the NFC East) and 11-5 in the AFC (4-0 in the AFC North). Yeh, you’re right, you don’t care.
Last Season: 128 – 130 – 5
Season: 1 – 0 – 0
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
Ravens 20 at Chiefs 27
Kansas City has speed again on the outside, and that was without Hollywood Brown. Felt like those were the two best teams in the AFC and we’re going to see that game again in January. Also, the Ravens think the last touchdown should’ve counted? His toe was clearly out. I don’t get it.
Ravens over 10.5
Chiefs over 11.5
Friday (6:15PM ET)
Packers at Eagles
A lot of hate out there for the Eagles this season. Their 2023 2nd half collapse was disgusting, so I get it. On the other hand, this team is very young and very, very talented. The defense may be unproven but man there is some firepower on offense. Remember to never overreact to anything in Week One but especially from this game. EAGLES -2
Packers under 9.5
Eagles over 10.5
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Steelers at Falcons
Ten wins seems a lot for a franchise that hasn’t sniffed double digit wins in seven years. Maybe the offense gets the Falcons there but I’m not putting my money on it. STEELERS +3.5
Steelers under 8.5
Falcons under 9.5
Cardinals at Bills
There’s too much talk about Josh Allen’s weapons and how the Bills will fall off this year. Allen is THE weapon in Buffalo. As long as he’s lining up behind center the Bills will be in contention. BILLS -6.5
Cardinals over 6.5
Bills over 10.5
Titans at Bears
Anyone else get strange vibes from the Bears Hard Knocks? It’s clear Caleb Williams is an unquestioned talent, but does anyone actually like him? That’s not necessarily a death knell, but I think it’s fair to say Williams won’t be a leader in that locker room anytime soon. TITANS +3.5
Bears under 8.5
Titans under 6.5
Patriots at Bengals
The Bengals were a finalist for bad vibes team. You’ve been warned. BENGALS -8.5
Patriots under 4.5
Bengals under 10.5
Texans at Colts
I really like this Colts team but the quarterback situation scares me. Anthony Richardson is still a huge wildcard and it’s unwise to expect another spectacular relief performance from Joe Flacco. COLTS +3
Texans under 9.5
Colts over 8.5
Jaguars at Dolphins
I don’t love the Jaguars secondary. Otherwise, I think Jacksonville is a top AFC team with a healthy Trevor Lawrence. JAGUARS +3.5
Jaguars over 8.5
Dolphins under 9.5
Panthers at Saints
I get sick whenever I think about the trades Carolina made in recent seasons. There isn’t a more helpless feeling in sports than having a terrible owner. SAINTS -4
Panthers over 5.5
Saints under 7.5
Vikings at Giants
I think Brian Daboll is a really good coach. The 2022 Giants were a very solid football team. In 2023 they were decimated by injuries. I wanted to take the over on New York but their schedule is not friendly and their quarterback situation is ick. GIANTS +1.5
Vikings under 7.5
Giants under 6.5
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Raiders at Chargers
The Raiders screwed this up. You don’t start Gardner Minshew. You go through the spring and summer as if he’s your backup and then insert him into the lineup midway through the first quarter of the first game. CHARGERS -3
Raiders under 6.5
Chargers over 8.5
Broncos at Seahawks
All of Geno Smith’s numbers regressed last season. Call me stupid, but I’d be more tempted to take the over wins total if Sam Howell were starting. BRONCOS +6
Broncos over 5.5
Seahawks under 7.5
Cowboys at Browns
Someone needs to explain to me how Dallas won’t get to 11 wins. So what, they don’t have a running back. Tony Pollard was so bad last season they might as well not have had one. The Defensive Coordinator left. Okay, but the talent is still there and this team has won 12 games the last three years. COWBOYS +2.5
Cowboys over 10.5
Browns over 8.5
Commanders at Buccaneers
The Jahan Dotson trade still doesn’t make sense. Had he really fallen to fourth or fifth on the depth chart or did Dan Quinn just want to send a message? COMMANDERS +3.5
Commanders over 6.5
Buccaneers under 7.5
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Rams at Lions
I think both the Lions and Rams are intriguing regression candidates. I’m just too chicken to put my money on it. RAMS +4.5
Rams over 8.5
Lions over 10.5
Monday Night (6:20PM ET)
Jets at 49ers
I can’t make up my mind on the Jets. The defense will be great again but I don’t think Tyrod Taylor was the right move for backup quarterback. I fear they’ll end up in a similar situation to last year. I hate betting on the health of 40-year-olds but 9.5 is too low with how good that defense was in 2023. JETS +4.5
Jets over 9.5
49ers under 11.5