Week 1 NFL Picks

Once again, I was ill-prepared for the start of the season.

Here are my abbreviated picks for Week 1 with an over/under pick for each team as well. Note: I am HORRIBLE at this and put about an hour of research into my selections. (I don’t even calculate if the math of my selections checks out.) An hour total. Not per team. I love losing, apparently.

Last Season:    127 – 130 – 12
Season:        1 – 0 – 0

Thursday (8:20PM ET)

Lions 21 at Chiefs 20
Like I said, that game meant so much more to Detroit than Kansas City.
Chiefs over 10.5
Lions under 10.5

Early Games (1:00PM ET)

Panthers at Falcons
Sometimes preseason matters and sometimes it doesn’t. I think the Panthers look a lot better for the real thing than they did in rehearsals. PANTHERS +3.5
Panthers over 7.5
Falcons under 8.5

Bengals at Browns
Everyone is picking the Browns. I hate it when everyone is in line with my favorite pick of the week. So I’m switching. BENGALS -1.5
Bengals under 11
Browns over 9.5

Jaguars at Colts
Every year there’s a Week 1 outcome that shocks everyone but ultimately was not indicative of that team’s success. I don’t think this game is that, but I thought about it real hard. COLTS +4
Jaguars under 10
Colts over 6.5

Buccaneers at Vikings
Another candidate for shocking upset. However, the Vikings offense is a pretty well oiled machine and I can’t see a Baker Mayfield unit outgunning Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson. VIKINGS -4.5
Buccaneers under 6
Vikings over 8.5 

Titans at Saints
Mike Vrabel has established himself as one of the league’s best coaches. He could field a competitive team made up of accountants and science teachers. I didn’t understand this line, which means I’m definitely going to be wrong. TITANS +2.5
Titans over 7.5
Saints under 9.5

49ers at Steelers
Just like with the Bengals/Browns game, I loved the Steelers here until everyone loved the Steelers here. Now I’m lost. STEELERS +2
49ers over 11
Steelers over 8.5

Cardinals at Commanders
A third contestant for shocking Week 1 outcome. As much as I would love picking against Ron Rivera, backing Jonathan Gannon is even more terrifying. COMMANDERS -7
Cardinals under don’t know, don’t care. Could be 1 and I’d go under. (It’s 3.5)
Commanders over 6.5

Texans at Ravens
I flirted with CJ Stroud and the young Texans stunning a trendy Super Bowl pick on the road. I couldn’t commit. RAVENS -9
Texans under 5.5
Ravens over 10.5

Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)

Packers at Bears
Green Bay is not losing their debut without Aaron Rodgers against a quarterback that can’t throw the football. PACKERS +1.5
Packers over 7.5
Bears under 7.5

Raiders at Broncos
Broncos country, let’s ride! In a shocking turn of events, it sounds like Sean Payton hates Russell Wilson’s persona as much as the rest of us. Fun! BRONCOS -3
Raiders over 6.5
Broncos under 8.5

Eagles at Patriots
How many players on the 2023 Patriots played with Tom Brady? I can’t decide if all the Brady pageantry helps or hurts. I like this game for the revamped Eagles defense. A subpar Patriots offense should help the Eagles find their sea legs. EAGLES -3.5
Eagles over 11.5
Patriots over 7

Dolphins at Chargers
Good job, NFL. Too often the afternoon slate is a slop fest. I see three intriguing matchups and two division rivalries. Keep it up. DOLPHINS +3
Dolphins over 9.5
Chargers over 9.5

Rams at Seahawks
There she is! We found it! The shocking upset that ultimate doesn’t matter and is not indicative of either teams success (or lack thereof) that season. Sorry, Seattle, it just feels right. I’d like to be on record… I believe Geno Smith and the Seahawks have a rough season because Smith is not the same as he was in 2022. RAMS +4.5
Rams under 6.5
Seahawks under 8.5

Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)

Cowboys at Giants
Do the Giants ever beat the Cowboys? COWBOYS -3.5
Cowboys over 9.5
Giants over 7.5

Monday Night (8:30PM ET)

Bills at Jets
I think the Jets and Aaron Rodgers do pretty well here because I am not a believer in the Bills defense and I love home dogs. On the other hand, I can’t back New York with my pennies until I see they can actually pass protect. BILLS –2.5
Bills under 10.5
Jets under 9.5

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