The College Football Playoff seeding is a mess, and it’s a mess for three very clear reasons.
So, before you listen to some podcast host or TV personality rage about the ineptitude of the committee, remember to think rationally and refer to these three explanations. You don’t have to love them or even agree with them, but these are facts.
First, the automatic byes screwed everything up. Due to the stupidity of guaranteeing a first round bye to the four highest ranked conference champions, the committee left the equality of the 2nd and 3rd rounds vulnerable. You have a team outside the top eight leapfrogging to a 3rd seed and a team outside the top 12 jumping all the way to 4th. That means more deserving teams will receive lower seeds and the top seeds in the tournament will be forced to play tougher lower seeded teams than the teams ranked as the three or four seeds. This is especially the case with Oregon playing the winner of Tennessee and Ohio State. If the tournament were seeded solely on ranking, the byes would probably go to Oregon, Georgia, Texas and Penn State. The five highest conference champions should still get an automatic bid, so they would be in, just without the bye. That would leave the rest of the seeding looking like this…
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- Boise State
- SMU
- Arizona State
- Clemson
The winner of Notre Dame/Clemson would meet Penn State. Texas would face Ohio State or Arizona State. Tennessee and SMU would battle to meet Georgia and the winner of Indiana and Boise State would matchup with Oregon. That field makes a ton more sense. The 5th and 6th seeds no longer have the easiest path to the semifinals and barring upset; the top seed (Oregon) would face the weakest second round opponent instead of the toughest. (As I mentioned last week, the tournament should reseed after every round so the highest seed always gets the lowest remaining seed, but that isn’t happening this year.)
The second reason the field is lopsided is because the Committee told us all weeks ago that conference title game losers would not be punished for the extra game unless something significant occurred such as a devastating injury or a blowout. That is why Penn State stayed above Ohio State. No, it doesn’t make any sense at all that a two loss Penn State team is in front of another two loss Ohio State team despite the Buckeyes owning a head to head victory over Penn State. But it does when you remember the Committee’s pledge. Penn State showed well against Oregon. They went into the game ranked ahead of Ohio State and Notre Dame, so barring a blowout, they weren’t going to drop. We all knew the modus operandi heading into last weekend and the Committee held true. The subsequent outrage is pure click bait, ignorance or flat out stupidity. If you were paying attention over the last few weeks nothing about the 5-9 seeds were surprising.
The final reason for the controversial seeding is Ohio State losing to Michigan. The massive upset in The Game screwed up the entire playoff field. Ohio State lost their bid to the Big Ten title game, Penn State instead got the berth, and Ohio State dropped below Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Georgia in the rankings. It was at this very moment that any shot at a top seven seed was gone for Ohio State. Again, because the Committee vowed not to punish title game losers, Oregon, Georgia, Texas and Penn State all would finish ahead of the Buckeyes. Notre Dame was idle, so they could not fall behind Ohio State either, and the top automatic byes reserved for the two conference winners outside the Big Ten and SEC would obviously jump Ohio State, forcing the Buckeyes all the way down to that eighth spot. IF Michigan did not upset their conference rival, Ohio State or Oregon would be the 5th seed, Texas would be 6th, Penn State 7th and Notre Dame 8th. Does that make more sense than the current arrangement? It does, but that upset on the last day of the season dropped a tornado at the top of the rankings and we are living in the aftermath.
Now, is the way the Committee handled the losers of conference title games the best? I don’t necessarilty think so but I also understand their aim. They have to protect the significance of those games for a multitude of reasons (mainly money) and the only way to do that is to put a safety net under the loser. Is there a better way? Maybe, but I don’t see it at this moment except to get rid of the game altogether but that won’t happen because… money.
To recap… is the current seeding of the College Football Playoff the best seeding? No. Does it make sense? Not really. Should anyone that was actually paying attention be shocked? No. Are there explanations that confirm as fact why the seeding is the way it is right now? Yes.
So next time someone complains about why their team is too low or why Penn State is too high feel free to tell them to shut up and pay attention. We had the answers before the exam and now we’re complaining about the grade because we couldn’t comprehend.