Football is back. Rejoice.

I actually did fairly well with my stupid predictions last season (you can read them here), so I’m almost certain my 2025 predictions will go completely off the rails. Let’s go…

1. The Washington Commanders will finish with a losing record. The Commanders needed an outside consultant this offseason – someone who would look at their 2024 season from a realist perspective. Their schedule was a joke. They benefited from some historically fluky wins. Their biggest flex was defeating the Eagles and a backup quarterback, and their playoff run was simply good fortune. Sure, the victory over Tampa Bay was a nice win, but Detroit was badly short-handed. That’s why the Eagles dealt the Commanders a very violent and swift slap of reality in the NFC Championship. Instead of building a young roster around budding star Jayden Daniels, the Commanders added aging talent and become one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. While I do believe Daniels is great, sophomore struggles for quarterbacks are a real thing. Just ask CJ Stroud. Wide receiver depth is an issue, the offensive line is questionable at best, and in general the front office added names over on field production.

2. The demise of the three-time reigning AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs is way overblown. The Chiefs are not dead, not at all. The Chiefs won 15 games a year ago without their top receiver for just about the entire season. Their top running back was also injured for nearly half the season. Their offensive line wasn’t great and Travis Kelce had the worst season of his illustrious career. No, Kelce is not getting younger, but I think he has a minor resurgence in what is likely his final run. The offensive line added a top-ten talent and both Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice (after a brief suspension) will return to the offense. Ignore the “11 wins in one score games is a fluke” nonsense. Yes, that’s something to take note of with most teams, but Andy Reid teams are well coached. He’s made a career of dragging wins out from the mud. In Philadelphia he rarely had the most talented teams and yet he won 11-13 games for half a decade. The Chiefs will be back in the Super Bowl.

3. The Eagles will repeat as Super Bowl champions, but will do so by winning the NFC Championship on the road. Their schedule is too difficult to win either of the top seeds in the NFC. They’ll still win the NFC East, which will secure them at least one home game, but I see the NFC North winner grabbing that top seed and the Buccaneers landing at number two due in large part to the lousy NFC South and a cupcake schedule. Homer pick? Maybe. But the Eagles boast the most talented roster in the NFL. Furthermore, outside of Lane Johnson, all their stars are 28 or younger. The window for more titles is wide open and that locker room knows it. They won’t even watch their Super Bowl banner be raised tonight. That was last season. The Eagles are collectively at ground zero. Are there some question marks? Absolutely. Who will fill the second outside corner role is the biggest, in my opinion. Will the young defensive line at least be close to the 2024 version? Can Saquon Barkley hold up for a full season after 500 touches a year ago? There will be obstacles and struggles for sure, but in a one game scenario in January? The Eagles will still be the team to beat.

4. We’re getting wild now… Aaron Rodgers will throw for 30 touchdowns and lead the Steelers to their first playoff win since 2017. No, I’m not drinking. I like the Steelers defense with a gunslinger on the other side of the ball. Russell Wilson played too scared to elevate the Steelers offense last season. Rodgers has the reigns now and a massive receiver on the outside. I also love Rodgers back in a football town where football is all that matters.

5. The AFC North will send three teams to the postseason, which means the Bengals are back! This isn’t as bold a prediction as I thought. The AFC is sneaky bad outside of two divisions (this one and the AFC West). I don’t see anyone outside Buffalo in the AFC East making waves, and while the AFC South may be more competitive, there isn’t a lot of fire power down there either. No, the Bengals don’t have a great defense but they didn’t have that in 2024 either and only a 1-4 start kept them out of the postseason. Joe Burrow and the Bengal offense will drag whatever 11 the defense throws out there to a Wildcard berth.

6. Here comes the biggest swing… The Denver Broncos miss the playoffs. I understand the offseason love for the Broncos. That defense is a monster. But Bo Nix? Really? The Broncos are all-of-a-sudden contenders in a top heavy AFC? I’m not buying. Where’s the overhaul of the running game? Maybe some legitimate help opposite Courtland Sutton? I watched Nix last year and saw a competent quarterback but not a quarterback capable of hanging with the current legends atop the AFC. There’s too much love for the Broncos just like the Texans got last season. The only difference is the Texans were in the dreadful AFC South. Denver resides in a tough AFC West. No playoffs for the Broncos.

7. Despite some pretty favorable schedules, no team in the NFC West gets to double-digit wins. I know, this is a reckless pick, but let’s go with it… The 49ers need a miracle season of health and lack depth. Their defensive line outside of Nick Bosa is no bueno. The Rams quarterback situation is fragile (they blow past 10 wins if Matthew Stafford stays healthy). I’m not buying Sam Darnold stock if Kevin O’Connell isn’t involved. It’s year seven for Kyler Murray. I’m not convinced he’s the guy. Though I think all these teams are solid, cannibalization will go a long way in keeping the ceiling low for the division.

8. The Dallas Cowboys finish second in the NFC East. Dallas had a mess of a season in 2024 and still managed seven wins. They beat three playoff teams and only one of those was with Dak Prescott. I don’t love Brian Schottenheimer but I do think he brings an even keel to the franchise that is lacking everywhere else. The Micah Parsons drama is over. The team has been written off and left for dead. Yes, the defense will likely be terrible but I love the George Pickens Jr. addition. Even without a true number one back I think the offense will be one of the more explosive in the league.

*****

Thursday Night Pick; Cowboys +8 (I hate taking the home favorite in these opening night/celebratory games.)
Cowboys over 7.5 wins
Eagles over 11.5 wins