James Franklin continues to excel at Penn State and fall flat on his face at the same time. Is it time for a change in Happy Valley?
Let’s start here: I get it. Outside of a Rose Bowl victory over Utah, Franklin hasn’t won a big game since 2016. He’s lost eight straight to Ohio State and ten out of eleven. After Saturday, Franklin is now 3-18 against top 10 teams, 1-13 against top 5 opponents, and he’s missed the playoffs every season. Worst of all, Franklin can’t beat the big boys of the Big Ten. He’s now 4-17 when facing off with Michigan and Ohio State. Again, I get it. It’s beyond frustrating to have great defenses year after year only to see our offense come up small in the biggest games.
With that said, the Franklin hire is a double on a bad day and a triple every other day. Are we sure we want to throw that away for a low percentage swing at a home run?
Look around the country. Florida has churned through seven coaches during the Frankin Era. Texas A&M has been looking for their Nick Saban for a decade. USC hasn’t found a coach since Pete Carroll left. Auburn is a carousel of coaching failures. Miami swung and missed on coaches for nearly 20 years before (likely) getting it right with Mario Cristobal. The same can be said of Tennessee and Josh Heupel. The point is this: Change does not always equal improvement. In fact, in college football, it may even prove the opposite.
Franklin is an elite program builder. Outside of the 2020 Covid season, he’s never had a losing record. He’s also gotten to double-digit wins five out of the last seven seasons (Covid year excluded). If playoff expansion happened a decade ago, Penn State would have been a likely qualifier in at least half of those seasons. In recruiting, Franklin continues to be among the nations top 15 classes year in and year out.
Should the failures of other schools and solid recruiting be enough to keep your job at a premiere football program? No, but it’s not like Franklin has stuck his head in the sand and refused to change. He’s tried multiple offensive coordinators. He’s aggressively tried to grow Penn State’s NIL capacity. He’s gone to the portal to fill holes. Even though the Ohio State games don’t reflect it, Penn State has improved under Franklin. I thought Saturday’s loss was the closest they’ve come since 2018. The difference Saturday was Penn State’s inability to run the football and their receivers failing to win in one-on-one coverage. When Ohio State needed a 3rd down conversion, their receivers beat man coverage. Penn State’s did not.
That’s where Franklin must improve if he’s ever to climb the final leg of the mountain. He needs more talent on the outside. Penn State does not recruit top tier receivers. I’m guessing they try, but those types of talents go to Alabama, LSU or Ohio State. It happens. Even Georgia can’t recruit top receiver talent. Franklin must then make sure his receiver development is the best in the country. He knows this. That’s why he switched receivers coach a few years back and brought in Marques Hagans. The development just hasn’t taken place like he hoped or expected.
Franklin must also re-establish a dominant running game. Penn State’s ground attack has always been elite and since Miles Sanders went to the draft it’s been hit or miss. There’s too much talent in the backfield to finish the biggest game of your season with your running backs averaging less than 2.5 yards per carry. If you know you won’t recruit elite athletes on the outside, you better make sure you can pound the rock between the tackles.
I’m not in love with Franklin as a head coach. I think he struggles on game day and I think the biggest games have not slowed down for him in his head yet. It’s been a decade though, so why those games haven’t slowed for him is perplexing and inexcusable. On the other hand, he’s the second longest tenured coach in the Big Ten and outside of Ohio State and Michigan (and maybe Oregon now) every other program would kill for Penn State’s sustained success. Replacing him for a new hire could elevate the program to the next level that Franklin appears incapable of reaching, but it’s more likely that Penn State would find itself floating in a sea of mediocrity like Auburn, Florida or USC.
*****
Thursday Night Pick; Bengals +6 … I don’t think either defense will have much luck in stopping the opposing offense, so I fully expect a 15-12 field goal shootout.