I don’t feel like writing about why the NBA is in a deep, dark hole, so let’s pick the first round of the College Football Playoff.
I almost never pick college football games. I watch the premiere games each week and will follow the better teams throughout the season, but the extent of my knowledge outside of my beloved Nittany Lions is equivalent to 2nd grade competency. Laugh all you want.
10 Indiana at 7 Notre Dame
The Notre Dame is really good argument relies heavily on how much you value the Irish beating Texas A&M in College Station way back in early September. Sure, Louisville, Army, Navy and Georgia Tech are all fine wins on the resume, but none declare elite status. And then there’s the loss to Northern Illinois. So are the Irish good or great? I thought the USC game on the final weekend of the season was a little concerning for Notre Dame. All season I thought Notre Dame’s running game was great and so was their defense. Now I’m second-guessing the latter. Indiana is in a similar boat. The one time they played an elite opponent their offense fell apart. Indiana is the sexiest upset pick of the weekend and I’m not buying. NOTRE DAME -7
11 SMU at 6 Penn State
As a Penn State fan, I can see the future already. If Penn State loses here, James Franklin and the program will be mocked endlessly for being upset in their first playoff appearance. To lose at home would further intensify the embarrassment. If Penn State wins, they will not be credited for that elite win that has escaped them for almost a decade because 1. It’s only SMU and 2. SMU is ranked outside the top ten. Furthermore, if Penn State does win, they’ll move on to face Boise State. Similar rules will apply. Penn State will be favored. If they lose; endless shame. If they win; It’s only Boise State, who were ranked outside the top ten all season until the last week. Guess what? I kind of agree with this totally fictional yet highly likely sentiment. The only push back I would offer is that Penn State does not choose its playoff opponents.
As for the game, I think Penn State’s offense should bully SMU around much like they did Oregon and hope their elite pass rushers wreak enough havoc to protect their solid but not great secondary. Also, don’t be surprised if Beaver Stadium isn’t at capacity. It’s going to be a bad look that I could defend with reasonable explanations but no one cares. It’ll be yet another reason for everyone to throw stones at my alma mater. And Joel Klatt and Standford Steve and everyone else can shut up about the white out in the afternoon. I understand why they got the worst slot of the weekend. It’s totally defensible, but that doesn’t change the stupidity of playing the conferences best games at noon during the regular season. I hate everyone. Leave me alone. PENN STATE -8.5
12 Clemson at 5 Texas
Quinn Ewers’ draft stock needs a stellar performance here. Many have said it but I will repeat it because I agree… we could have a Jalen Hurts Tua Tagovailoa situation here with Ewers and Arch Manning. This is do-or-die. If Ewers is dying on the vine Texas has to give Manning a shot. Here’s the thing about Clemson, though… 60 minutes of great play isn’t really their thing this season. Take a look…
vs. Georgia – trail 6-0 at half, lost 34-3.
vs. NC State – led 52-7, won 59-35
vs. FSU – led 23-7 at the half, won 29-13
vs. Virginia – led 38-10, won 48-31
vs. Pitt – led 17-7 at the half, came from behind to win 24-20
vs. SC – led 14-7, kind of dominated for 3 quarters, lost 14-17
vs. SMU – led 31-14 after 3rd quarter, won on last second FG 34-31
So if Clemson jumps out to a big lead remember to relax. They will undoubtedly let Texas back into the game. CLEMSON +12
9 Tennessee at 8 Ohio State
Everyone is down on Ohio State and I get that, but let’s not forget what Ohio State does to teams not named Michigan. Let’s also remember this Tennessee team isn’t exactly a juggernaut. They lost to a poor Arkansas team, needed OT to beat unranked Florida, and struggled to put away Kentucky. Tennessee’s floor is significantly lower than Ohio State’s and their ceiling isn’t as high either. I would love to be wrong but I think the Buckeyes open up the offense and Nico Iamaleava struggles. OHIO STATE -7.5
One more thing… The ironic part about this opening round is the lines are all a touchdown or more. This is exactly why those against playoff expansion felt we didn’t need more games to know whom the elite teams were at the end of the season. In fact, I think there’s a better than 60% chance the final four teams will end up being the four that would have made the playoffs in the previous model (Texas-Oregon-Penn State-Georgia). Take it one step further and the most likely championship matchup (Oregon-Georgia) would have been the BCS matchup. If you’re wondering… yes, this is all a money grab, but I will greatly enjoy this money grab because it will be fun to have a full slate of college football for one more Saturday.
Further Predictions: Texas-Ohio State and Penn State-Georgia will be the semifinals with Ohio State beating Penn State for the title. (I hear you laughing.)
*****
Thursday Night Pick; Broncos +2.5