Have the Eagles shown any signs of dominance this season? The Chargers will be a problem for New England, and the AFC Champion will be determined Sunday.
Between the College Football Playoff semifinals and the NFL Playoffs, this is the last great stretch of football before the withdrawal sets in. I’m already sad.
Last Week: 11 – 5 – 0
2025 Season: 124 – 129 – 3 (did not pick Week 17)
Saturday, January 10
(5)Rams at (4)Panthers [4:30PM ET, FOX]
It was a great season of growth for Carolina. Though I would hardly consider him a franchise quarterback, Bryce Young did show signs of being an NFL starting QB. Would I commit to that if I were the Panthers? No. Would I entertain the idea of him being my quarterback next season if nothing obviously better were available? Absolutely. Why am already talking about next season? Am I not even giving Carolina a chance? No, no I am not. The Panthers died as a plucky playoff underdog when their running attack died. Bryce Young won the Atlanta game in November and performed well against the Rams, but he’s been mostly bad otherwise. He cannot carry the offense for an entire game. If the defense can manage to keep the Rams in striking difference, then I think Young gives the Panthers a chance. I just don’t see Matthew Stafford self-destructing for a 3rd time in 40 days. RAMS -10.5
(7)Packers at (2)Bears [8:00PM ET, Prime Video]
I like the Packers here. Green Bay’s regular season essentially ended on 12/20 because Romeo Doubs failed to field an onside kick against the Bears. The Packers dominated the Bears that night, but what we’ve learned from the 2025 season is dominating the Bears for 50 minutes doesn’t mean jack if you can’t win those last ten minutes too. Micah Parsons’ absence is a massive blow. However, I think this Chicago defense, especially in the secondary, is hanging on by a thread. There will be weather involved, apparently. I can never decide who that favors, but in the Rams/Eagles playoff game a year ago it most definitely favored the team desperately throwing to stay in the game. I fully expect to sweat it out for a full 60 minutes, but I am taking the Packers. PACKERS -1.5
Sunday, January 11
(6)Bills at (3)Jaguars [1:00PM ET, CBS]
I’m probably alone on this, but this is the 2010 NFC Wildcard matchup between the Packers and Eagles in Philadelphia. I declared before that game the winner would win the NFC. I am declaring the same thing here. The winner here will win the AFC. Denver and Houston have great defenses. The Patriots have a great coach and are sound across the board. I don’t care. Either the best player in the NFL emerges from this game or the team with the best offense-defense combination in the NFL does. People have been sleeping on the Jaguars for too long. I’ve been awful at picking games this season but winning money via the Jags was easy because the public and Vegas gave them no respect. Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen have the Jacksonville offense humming. They can run the ball. They have a great tight end. They have the most underrated group of receivers, and Parker Washington has emerged as a terror with the ball in the open field. The Jaguar defense is first against the run, 2nd in takeaways and 8th in points against. For Buffalo to win it’ll be up to Josh Allen. The most notable weakness of the Jacksonville defense is their pressure. They’re bottom three in sack rate and middle of the pack in pressure percentage. You can get them through the air, but they will turn you over. And that’s where I think the Jaguars will win the game. I don’t see Buffalo’s defense standing up, and as a result, Allen and the offense will be forced to press and a turnover(s) will be the difference. JAGUARS +1
(6)49ers at (3)Eagles [4:30PM ET, FOX]
I thought the Eagles made a huge mistake in Week 18. Resting most of their starters was not the mistake. I agree with Nick Sirianni’s logic – essentially that he couldn’t guarantee a two seed, but he could guarantee a week of rest for his guys. The mistake was their approach in the game. Sirianni and the Eagles did not coach that game to win. It was almost like they were trying to flaunt Tanner Mckee. Not kicking the field goal early was a mistake. Running the football on 1st and 2nd down at the Washinton 20 and then throwing to the end zone on 3rd and 10 with a backup quarterback was also foolish. Once you run on 2nd and 10 for no gain you are playing for the field goal. Why risk it? If the Eagles run the football 60-65% of the 2nd half last week they win and are the two seed. Anyway, the three seed may end up the better option anyway. If the Eagles can pull out a win against San Francisco, then they would head to Chicago, and the Rams would likely head to Seattle. In this scenario, a home NFC Championship Game is very much in play.
Enough about all that. The Eagles must win first, and that is very much in doubt. When was the last time you felt great about the Eagles as an entire unit? The first half in Dallas was great, but that all vanished quickly. There was a stretch against the Chargers where both offense and defense were playing well. Then the defense got tired and AJ Brown dropped a game-sealing touchdown. Those three consecutive drives to end the first half in Buffalo were fun. Of course, that was the last we saw of the offense that day. My point is the Eagles have yet to put a full game together. The defense is most consistent but even they fall apart. Sure, it could be attributed to exhaustion, but look at the Denver collapse, the Dallas collapse, Chicago bullying them via the ground game, the Chargers getting clutch field goals with no resistance, and Buffalo dominating the 4th quarter. The defense has not been as clutch as you would think. Enter the 49ers. A team decimated by injuries and yet finished one win away from the top seed.
I wanted the Packers. That’s why I thought the two seed was important. Kyle Shanahan stole the Eagles soul two seasons ago. Christian McCaffrey should win MVP. Brock Purdy is a weird quarterback to predict but he will let it rip, that is for sure. If the Eagles had a functioning offense, I would have full confidence in the Eagles emerging victorious, but even a badly injured and lowly defense like the 49ers should be fine against Kevin Patullo’s lousy excuse for an offense. Maybe Sirianni changes his approach with the season on the line and keeps Patullo on a short leash. Maybe Jalen Hurts goes rogue. Or maybe the endless hitches and mind-numbing three-and-outs continue and the Eagles get booed off the field. Everything is in play. The thing I trust most in this contest is Shanahan. 49ers +3.5
(7)Chargers at (2)Patriots [8:00PM ET, NBC]
I don’t understand how this got awarded the Sunday night slot over Bills/Jaguars. I get that people don’t know the Jaguars, but the Chargers lack explosiveness and excitement. Anyway, I try not to punish teams for beating their schedule. New England’s schedule was really, really soft, though. So soft it makes me wonder if they’re ready for this moment. The Chargers will be the best team the Patriots have played this season (sorry, Buffalo). Los Angeles also doesn’t play like a dome team. They’re rugged. They will run the ball down your throat. Defensively, they stand up against the run and get after the quarterback. New England’s offensive line could be a major issue if the Patriots can’t establish a run game. This is a Jim Harbaugh game. He loves being an underdog. Harbaugh has done a masterful job of instilling that same mentality into Justin Herbert. I would not feel great if I were a Patriots fan. CHARGERS +3.5
Monday, January 12
(5)Texans at (4)Steelers [8:15PM ET, ESPN]
I know I am all alone on this, but I am happy for Aaron Rodgers. I enjoyed watching him play well again. It was also funny to see/feel Chris Collinsworth squirm after those horrible timeouts in the 4th quarter. Especially the one that came simply because Rodgers was rushing to catch the defense with too many men, which happened right after Collinsworth spent 15 seconds lauding Rodgers for the throw he just made. Good times. Anyway, I know the Texans defense is great. I also know Rodgers cannot escape pressure like he once could. Do I trust CJ Stroud? No. Do I trust Houston’s 22nd ranked rush offense? No. I really want to take Pittsburgh, but I don’t see how they score enough points. Who is ready for an all AFC South Championship game? TEXANS -3