A year ago I went 0-6 with my picks for Wildcard Weekend. It’s nice knowing things can’t get any worse.
Update: Penn State just choked away a shot at a National Championship. Things definitely just got worse.
Last Week: 7 – 8 – 1
2024 Season: 153 – 113 – 6
Saturday, January 11
(5)Chargers at (4)Texans [4:30PM ET, CBS]
CJ Stroud has absolutely been underwhelming this season but the noise about his decline is too much. The Houston offense has been ravaged by injuries and I think not playing in meaningful games for over a month impacts the ceiling of any team. Think about… at no point since before Thanksgiving were the Texans threatened in the division. The top seeds in the AFC were never a realistic option after back-to-back losses in early November. The Chargers meanwhile, are a team made for the postseason and have been battling to stay in the postseason since Halloween. With that said, I think outside of Washington these are the two worst teams in the playoffs. Combined, they are 3-10 against playoff teams (1-5 Houston, 2-5 Los Angeles), so it’s one and done regardless of who advances. CHARGERS -3
(6)Steelers at (3)Ravens [8:00PM ET, Prime Video]
I’m not surprised the wheels fell off in Pittsburgh. I’m just surprised how long it took. Their offense was always too reliant on hitting deep balls. The ground game is ineffective and Russell Wilson just isn’t going to cut up a defense like it’s 2015. The Steelers overachieved early and then reality came swiftly and violently. If I’m Mike Tomlin, I’m going rogue for this matchup. You know you have little chance to line up and beat the Ravens with what you got. Why not insert a package of 15-20 plays for Justin Fields? Give Baltimore something unexpected and then hope your defense can force a few turnovers to even the scales. The Steelers have the better kicker, so any close game would lean heavily in Pittsburgh’s favor. If George Pickens can pry his head out of his rear end I think the Steelers have a small chance with some Fields creativity. The Zay Flowers injury is a problem for Baltimore. Last year Lamar Jackson would not run in the playoffs. If he wants to win this year he has to scramble. STEELERS +9
Sunday, January 12
(7)Broncos at (2)Bills [1:00PM ET, CBS]
I think this one may be closer than people think simply because Denver’s defense is really good. The Broncos are excellent against the run and led the NFL in sacks and sack percentage. Making Buffalo one-dimensional isn’t exactly a win because Josh Allen is at quarterback, but it’s the best chance you have. Getting hits on Allen and forcing him into mistakes is key. The climate won’t provide Buffalo any advantage either, so the Broncos have a real chance here. Unfortunately, the other key components to pulling an upset on the road in the playoffs is running the football and controlling clock which in turn forces the favored opponent to press. Denver can’t run the football. Like, at all. They’re technically average according to the stats but if you watched them all year they had no success at moving the football on the ground. They tried any soul on the roster at running back to no avail. It’ll be up to Bo Nix to carry the offense and while he’s improved and shown some flashes, I can’t see how he finishes this game without a couple of turnovers. BILLS -8.5
(7)Packers at (2)Eagles [4:30PM ET, FOX]
Nick Sirianni should have the Packers/Cowboys matchup from a year ago playing on a loop around the Eagles facility this week. Green Bay is the most dangerous team in the NFC playoffs outside of Detroit and Philadelphia. They’re good against the run, they can pound you with a run game of their own and they have a multitude of weapons on the outside. The only issue is for Green Bay is there is no dominant weapon on the outside and they just lost their home run hitter to injury. Furthermore, the guy throwing to those weapons has not returned to the lights out quarterback that ousted Dallas last year. Jordan Love has been battling injuries all season and maybe that’s the reason, but it will take more than a solid outing to upset one of the NFL’s premiere defenses at home. When it boils down to it, the Eagles just need to do what they do. They have too many weapons and too many options to let Green Bay dictate this game. Stay committed to the ground game, give Jalen Hurts easy targets and trust your defense to limit the Packers. It sounds simple because it is simple. The Eagles are better. They only lose this game if they give it away, which is exactly what Penn State did 12 hours ago. EAGLES -5
(6)Commanders at (3)Buccaneers [8:15PM ET, NBC]
I’m terrified of the Buccaneers coming to Philadelphia next week. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs (and Tom Brady) have owned the Eagles over the last three seasons. If the Eagles win, this will be their opponent because Washington stinks. Mayfield will have his way and Tampa will advance with at least a two score victory. BUCCANEERS -3
Monday, January 13
(5)Vikings at (4)Rams [8:15PM ET, ESPN]
The NFL can be cruel sometimes. Minnesota was a victory away from the NFC’s top seed and a bye. Now they’re back-to-back losses from an early vacation. I’ve said it multiple times and I’ll say it again: My biggest hesitation with the Vikings is they lack a run game that can bail them out when the aerial attack isn’t firing. Sam Darnold was a mess last week. Minnesota needed something to give the offense life until Darnold found his rhythm. It never happened. Also, take a look at Minnesota’s schedule. They’re 3-3 against playoff teams. Wins against the Texans and Packers (x2) and losses against the Lions (x2) and the… wait for it… Rams. For comparison, the Lions are 6-2 against playoff teams and the Eagles finished 5-2. I think this is a Matthew Stafford game. Old greybeard has seen a blitz or two in his time and Sean McVay is the best offensive mind in the game. RAMS +2.5