Can Josh Allen do it by himself? Can the Texans overcome their own quarterback? Does Chicago have another rally in them, because they’re going to need it.
Annual reminder… this is the last Saturday-Sunday football combo until September. Cherish it. Don’t skip games. No complaining. Even bad football is better than anything else on TV… unless of course Kevin Patullo is calling plays. Then anything else is better.
Last Week: 2 – 4 – 0
Playoffs: 2 – 4 – 0
I’m warning you now… I go way overboard with these picks. I’m confident and irrationally bold about this weekend. I feel like I’m seeing everything clearly and that often means one thing: I’m going to be very wrong. Oh well.
Saturday, January 17
(6)Bills at (1)Broncos [4:30PM ET, CBS]
I think I’m going to end up failing on my boldest prediction last week. (Not a shock based on how poor I’ve been this season.) If you recall, I declared the winner of Bills-Jaguars would win the AFC. The truth is I really needed the Jaguars to win. Buffalo is too banged up. They literally have three receivers on their active roster. Jacksonville’s defense was really good. Denver’s is better. I trust Josh Allen. I think he’s been the best player in the NFL for the last two seasons, but I don’t know how he pulls a rabbit out of this hat. To have a chance, Buffalo must run the ball better than they did a week ago. Jacksonville had the league’s best run defense, so it should only get easier this week. Just kidding. Denver boasts the NFL’s 2nd best run defense. It gets worse… where Jacksonville was vulnerable (against the pass), Denver is strong. They have the best pass rush by nearly every statistical measure, and their overall pass defense is in the top ten in every major category as well. There’s really no way to justify picking the Bills unless you do it like this… I don’t trust Bo Nix. The Broncos do not run the football well unless it’s Nix scrambling for big gains. Force Nix to beat you and he will turn it over. Allen must be Patrick Mahomes. How many times has Mahomes just found a way? Even though he’s short stacked and long odds against, Allen must do the same. I know I should take the Broncos, but I am a fool. BILLS +1.5
(6)49ers at (1)Seahawks [8:00PM ET, FOX]
I’m not going to overthink this pick. The 49ers are here because their coach is lightyears better than the bozos pacing the sidelines for Philadelphia. Don’t get it twisted, that was a JV squad beating a varsity team last weekend. While I do not think Seattle is a juggernaut, their defense won’t give up the explosive plays that doomed Philadelphia a week ago. The Seahawks pass rush will also greatly impact the outcome. The Eagles pass rush was inexplicably nonexistent against a weaker 49er offensive line. The Eagles offense and Kevin Patullo also did a horrible job at exploiting an injury depleted defense. While I do not believe Sam Darnold will deliver a great game, I think the Seahawks will find big plays against that 49er secondary. While I may sound like I am disrespecting the 49ers, I am insulting the Eagles. There’s no reason this 49ers team should be here given their injuries. I think the Seahawks do enough to win but the brilliance of Kyle Shanahan keeps it close. 49ERS +7
Sunday, January 18
(5)Texans at (2)Patriots [3:00PM ET, ESPN]
Separating one playoff performance from the next is crucial when trying to pick winners. Houston’s defense looked unbeatable last week in Pittsburgh. They were so good you could almost forget how bad CJ Stroud was for three quarters. I want to pick Houston, but I cannot. Here’s why… First, Drake Maye can move. As great as the Texans pass rush is, they were chasing a statue in the Wildcard round. Aaron Rodgers is 42. Maye is 23 and a very good runner. 3rd and longs are not as easy when the quarterback is a running threat. Second, the back end of the Steelers defense was quietly a mess for most of the season. Look at that 4th quarter against Baltimore in Week 18. See the handful of big plays that played a huge role in swinging that game last week against Houston. Outside of Joey Porter Jr, the Pittsburgh secondary is a mess. That’s why they picked up and played Asante Samuel Jr. off the street. It’s why the Steelers picked up and started Kyle Dugger after the Patriots cut him. There are better secondaries than New England’s but the level of play between them and Pittsburgh’s is vast. Which brings me to my final point… CJ Stroud must be better, and he must do so without his top receiver. Nico Collins is unlikely to play, and I would bet the Patriots have little problem stopping Houston’s ground attack. Is there a combination of Maye turnovers and an excellent Houston secondary suffocating the Patriots offense that would lead to a Texans victory? Absolutely, but Stroud is still the quarterback, and I trust him to struggle more than anything else. With that said, I’m taking the hook because I think this is a coin flip game. TEXANS +3.5
(5)Rams at (2)Bears [6:30PM ET, NBC]
This is the best matchup of the weekend, and it could be a wild contest. Chicago made a living this year playing like garbage for 50 minutes and flipping the game on its head to win in the final minutes. The Rams inexplicably swing between unbeatable to complete disaster by the quarter. Both trips to Carolina, the 4th quarter in Seattle, and the Falcons game all demonstrate the erratic swings of the Rams perfectly. Weather will be involved, but I think that will impact the Bears more than the Rams. Los Angeles nearly knocked off the Eagles a year ago in blizzard conditions. I can’t remember Caleb Williams in a snow game yet. Not that I am some expert, but I try to boil these matchups down to what will impact the game the most. Two things favor Los Angeles more than anything else. One is the Rams pass rush. It’s the only strength of that defense and Williams loves to hang on to the football and extend plays, sometimes to his own detriment. Turnovers, back-breaking sacks and grounding penalties will greatly impact the Bears offense Sunday because of the Rams pass rush. The only way to combat this is for the Bears to control the game on the ground or via an endless amount of screens to Colston Loveland and their talented duo of backs. Chicago is at its best when it’s running the football consistently. Too often they get away from it and that’s why these amazing comebacks have been so necessary. Keeping Mattthew Stafford and the explosive Rams offense off the field is also the Bears best bet to advance, which leads me to the second biggest advantage for the Rams…Puka Nacua. Nacua against that Chicago secondary is a real problem for the Bears. Chicago’s luck finally runs out. RAMS -4