It’s the best weekend of NFL football and I am overly confident. Take cover.
I say this every year, but this is the last Saturday-Sunday football combo until September. AND we have the National Championship Monday night. Cherish it. I’m already sad football will be gone in three weeks.
Last Week: 3 – 3 – 0
Playoffs: 3 – 3 – 0
I’m warning you now… I go way overboard with these picks. I’m confident and irrationally bold about this weekend. I feel like I’m seeing everything clearly and that often means one thing: I’m going to be very wrong. Oh well.
Saturday, January 18
(4)Texans at (1)Chiefs [4:30PM ET, ESPN]
A lot of folks are writing off the Houston Texans Saturday. I will admit, I don’t give them much of a chance to win, but let’s not forget that in a nearly identical situation last year they were tied at halftime against the top seeded Ravens IN Baltimore. Then their defense collapsed and that was that, but the experienced was gained, and I don’t think the Texans will be at all intimidated Saturday. Both of these teams were among the top seven in opponent average time of possession, so big plays will be a huge advantage as extended drives will be tough to come by. In that sense, I think CJ Stroud, Nico Collins and the Texans have the advantage. Yes, Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback but even with Xavier Worthy they have lacked the big play scores since Rashee Rice went down in September. The Chiefs must find some success on the ground. They finished the season 29th in yards per attempt. The top seed earned Kansas City the weakest Divisional Round opponent but also the best defense. I lack the courage to take the Texans outright but I think they hang around and make the two time defending champs grind it out. TEXANS +8
(6)Commanders at (1)Lions [8:00PM ET, FOX]
Two teams advanced past the Wildcard round without a 100 yard rusher. It was the Commanders and the Rams. I thought the Buccaneers would advance last weekend but they were sloppy and undisciplined and Washington took full advantage. I get that everyone is in love with Jayden Daniels and this upstart team but I don’t see it. They can’t run the football, their defense is bad against the run and I’ll go ahead and say it… Detroit’s secondary will take full advantage of opportunities that Tampa’s did not. That’s right… Daniels was great last week, but I counted at least three throws that were flirting with disaster. Two were dropped interceptions and the other somehow escaped the defensive back’s line of sight. Detroit is a top ten team in both turnovers and interceptions. Jared Goff and the Lions offense is a machine, so Daniels and the Commanders offense will have to press. The turnovers will happen. Washington will lose. LIONS -9
Sunday, January 19
(4)Rams at (2)Eagles [3:00PM ET, NBC]
The Rams are the overwhelmingly sexy pick to pull the upset this week and advance deeper into the postseason. I’m an Eagles fan, so feel free to process all of the following through that filter… It’s amazing how quickly people dismiss the most balanced team in the NFL this season. Remember when I said I thought the Eagles eliminated the toughest NFC opponent outside of Detroit last week? Well, only the Eagles and Packers ranked among the top eight in total defense, total offense AND scoring this season. Not Baltimore (they were 10th in defense), not Detroit, not Buffalo not Kansas City. Only the Eagles and Packers. Philadelphia is deep, they are versatile and they probably should have lost last week but their defense would not budge. I don’t expect the offense to be as sluggish and as good of a back as Kyren Williams is, he’s not a battering ram like Josh Jacobs. The Rams are also a bottom ten rush offense and rank 31st in yards per rush attempt. Matthew Stafford is certainly good enough to win this game on his own, but the Eagles defense was number one against the pass this season. They were also 2nd in passing first downs allowed. Add in the weather and the Eagles relentless ground game and I just don’t see how the Rams get out of Philadelphia with a win unless they completely collapse on one side of the ball. EAGLES -6
(3)Ravens at (2)Bills [6:30PM ET, CBS]
I don’t feel good at all about this matchup if I’m Buffalo. Yes, the opponent is different, but it’s exactly the same otherwise. Same seeding. Same venue. Same time. Same channel. Same result. The Bills need this game played in a dome, not played in temperatures below 20. The ground game won’t save the Bills this week. Baltimore will make them one-dimensional and then it’ll be up to Josh Allen to keep up with a Baltimore offense that will bludgeon you into submission. The Bills held up just fine against the run this season on paper, but that defense was often nursing big leads, not grinding out brawls in a phone booth. For me, this isn’t even about picking Allen over Lamar Jackson or vice versa. They’re both great. They were two of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL this season. All this game buys the winner is a one week reprieve from the, can’t win the big game narrative. Next week will be the one that really counts and I don’t see Allen getting there with the lack of weapons around him and a defense that just isn’t as good as Baltimore’s. Even last week it felt like Denver was able to hang around much longer than they should have. The Bills offense lacked the juice to deliver the knockout blow until late in the 3rd quarter and even that was a miraculous play on 4th down. RAVENS -1.5