The Eagles were the best team in the NFL this season. Time to play like it, and this just in… turnovers matter, a lot.
I went winless last week even though I felt like I was on the right side of three of those games. Don’t gamble, kids.
Last Week: 0 – 3 – 1
Playoffs: 3 – 6 – 1
Sunday, January 26
(6)Commanders at (2)Eagles [3:00PM ET, FOX]
I think the most underrated part of this Eagles team is their experience. They’ve seen it all the last three to four years. They weren’t good enough in 2021. They were one stop short of the mountaintop. They’ve tumbled off a cliff. They’ve been humbled. They’ve overcome drama – whether real or media fabricated. They’ve lost leaders and established new ones. They’ve battled injuries. For some strange reason they’ve had a bulls eye on their chest the last few months. The media finds ways to fault them in wins as much as defeat. Their quarterback does nothing but win yet is consistency criticized when the team doesn’t score 30. These things matter in the DNA of a team with championship aspirations.
They didn’t blink this season when it appeared last year’s struggles carried over. They didn’t blink when the Rams had the football and an opportunity to score and win the game. As they did against the Jaguars in early November, they made a play. They went through the vaunted AFC North. They battled with a backup QB in Washington. The Eagles are battle tested.
Conversely, the Commanders have a rookie quarterback who doesn’t know better and that’s equally terrifying. He’s not supposed to be here. He’s not supposed to be poised in these situations. He’s not supposed to play perfect ball with the game/season on the line. The Commanders are the wandering lion with nothing to lose looking for a pride to call their own.
I think this game ultimately boils down to the Eagles taking the game or allowing the Commanders to hang around. They let the Packers hang around and it didn’t cost them. They let the Rams hang around and found themselves 12 yards from defeat. Jayden Daniels is not the guy you want to leave the door open for in these situations. He’ll barge right through. The Eagles have to put this team down, and pouncing on them early and forcing them to press is the best way. I thought Daniels got away with some throws in Tampa Bay. He was near perfect last week because Detroit could not get pressure. The pressure must come for the Eagles to limit the damage he’ll bring.
Let’s also not understate how good this Eagles team has been this season. They are literally two drops from a 16-1 season. Barkley dropped the clincher against Atlanta in Week 2 and DeVonta Smith did the same in Week 16. Sure, that means nothing on Sunday, but the Eagles eliminated the most well rounded NFC team in the Wildcard round, survived the NFC’s best quarterback and coach/offensive mind in the Divisional and will battle perhaps the hottest team in the NFL on Sunday. This is their game. They just have to take it. And I think they will.
The Eagles were crushing Washington in Week 16 before Jalen Hurts went down. AJ Brown has been a Commanders killer since joining the Eagles. He will finally have a big game. Philadelphia’s ground game is too dominant. Saquon Barkley steamrolled Washington twice this season. He would’ve run for 200+ if Hurts didn’t go down in the Week 16 matchup. In an unexpected development, Barkley has become the soul of this team. You can feel how the whole team wants this for him. He’s come through in every big moment this year. He’ll come through again. EAGLES -6
(2)Bills at (1)Chiefs [6:30PM ET, CBS]
Advancing in the NFL playoffs is less about talent and more about staying clean. Staying clean means limiting turnovers, avoiding backbreaking penalties and not leaving big plays on the field. The Eagles advanced last week despite failing in two of those three categories. The Ravens were eliminated because they lost the battle in all three arenas. Detroit was a mess and the Texans’ special teams were a disaster. Clean football wins more often than not.
Buffalo and Kansas City are very similar in how they win games. The Bills didn’t anything spectacular against Baltimore. They ran the football, scored touchdowns inside the red zone, committed only one penalty and made sure not to give the more talented opponent any advantage. I don’t think that formula will be enough in Kansas City. It was barely enough to knock out the sloppy Ravens.
Each of the four teams remaining finished the regular season averaging less than one turnover per game. Losing teams in the playoffs this season have turned the football over 21 times; the winners only three. Turn the ball over and die. It’s as simple as that. Patrick Mahomes has not thrown an interception since losing to the Bills two months ago. Those two interceptions were the only interceptions he threw in his last ten starts this season. He had thrown nine in his first seven games of the season. Josh Allen has only one interception in his last eight starts after throwing 13 in the first 10 games of the season (I did not count the Week 18 game where he took a snap and then sat). These teams, these quarterbacks understand that turnovers are cancer, especially when you lack offensive superstars that both of these teams have had in the past. This game will not resemble the high scoring matchups from postseasons past. It will be a grind. They’ll both stick to the run. They will trust their defense to keep them in the game and that’s where the clearest advantage is for the Chiefs.
The Kansas City defense is just better than Buffalo’s. Better against the run. Better in pressuring the quarterback. Better at generating turnovers. Allen has to win this game for the Bills. He’s their best and only shot. Travis Kelce and the Chiefs won’t light up the scoreboard like a few years ago but they will score enough points that the Bills must take some risks. I think Allen is the best quarterback in the league right now outside of Joe Burrow but I don’t think he will pull this one out. The Chiefs are far from perfect but their style and their playoff resume forces you to be in order to take them out. CHIEFS -1.5