NFL talk all week focused around how sluggish offenses have looked and the neutered passing attacks. Is it true? Yes. Maybe. I think so.
I thought to myself, “Yeh I thought the same, someone should do a very limited amount of research and draw conclusions from that inadequate amount of data.” Well, that someone is me. Here’s what I found…
Turns out, the passing numbers between 2023 and 2024 throughout the first two weeks aren’t drastically different, but there is a decline. I for sure should have gone back another two or three seasons but I have real life responsibilities that come before this fruitless blog. Anyway let’s get to the data…
I divided the passer stats into six different categories:
< 150 passing yards
> 150
> 200
> 250
> 275
> 300
(Obviously someone who threw for 300 yards threw for more than 250 but I only qualified them once. Sorry if that’s a stupid way to quantify but I can’t figure out blogging so this is way over my head.)
| Week One 2023 | Week Two 2023 | |||||
| < 150 | > 150 | > 200 | < 150 | > 150 | > 200 | |
| 8 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 13 | |
| > 250 | > 275 | > 300 | > 250 | > 275 | > 300 | |
| 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
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| Week One 2024 | Week Two 2024 | |||||
| < 150 | > 150 | > 200 | < 150 | > 150 | > 200 | |
| 5 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | |
| > 250 | > 275 | > 300 | > 250 | > 275 | > 300 | |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | |
As you can see, there isn’t a significant drop from 2023 to 2024. The biggest discrepancy between the two seasons was Week 2, where in 2023 ten starting quarterbacks threw for more than 300 yards compared to only 3 this season. However, if you include the 250 and 275 threshold, the discrepancy is only four (13 in 2023 to 9 in 2024). Furthermore, if you combine the seasons, there were 17 quarterbacks to throw for over 250 yards in the first two weeks in 2024 and 19 in 2023 over the same span.
The other notable difference was in the amount of passers below 150 yards. Week 1 of 2023 won the highest mark with a total of eight. However, 2023 had no passers under 150 in Week 2 while the 2024 season jumped from five in Week 1 to seven the following week for a total of 12, a 50% increase over the same two week span the prior season.
So, yeh, despite the very limited sample size, passing is down across the league. Now we could argue about why that is (two deep safeties, poor quarterback play, early season struggles due to lack of preseason reps, etc…), but I think waiting a few weeks is the best approach. The NFL has always been an adjustment league. Defenses will adjust to the increase in rushing yards and the passing yards will likely jump back up and vice versa. I’d say I will check back in a few weeks to confirm my hypothesis but I can guarantee you… there’s no way I’m going to do that.
*****
Thursday Night Pick; Patriots +6.5
Nothing about the Jets right now makes me believe they deserve more than a field goal spread. While I do think they’ll win, their offense has not looked great and the only reason they covered last week was because Will Levis cannot help but light points on fire in the most dramatic and agonizing way possible. I know it won’t happen, but I would love to see Drake Maye in this one. To tie this pick into the aforementioned drop in passing: Only two quarterbacks were below the 150 threshold in both weeks to start the 2024 season. Justin Herbert and you guessed it… Jacoby Brissett.