The answer is I don’t think so, but maybe. It’s definitely possible. It could happen.

As I gathered information to write this here post, my optimism about the top seed grew. I went into this assuming there was little to no chance of the Eagles capturing the coveted first round bye. The Lions are too good. The Eagles schedule is too tough. Detroit can’t possibly lose two or three of their final seven. Au contraire.

The Lions in fact have the tougher remaining schedule of the two teams. Detroit’s opponent win percentage over the seasons final seven weeks is .53. The Eagles is only .49. Furthermore, the Eagles have three absolute cupcakes on their schedule; Panthers, Cowboys and Giants. The Lions also face three teams with a losing record, but those teams are the Colts and Bears (twice). If the Lions have any schedule advantage over the Eagles, it’s this: The Eagles will play the Rams, Ravens and Redskins (had to keep the Rs going) on the road. Those teams have a combined 19-13 record (.59 win percentage). The Lions will not travel to a team currently above .500. Instead, they get the Packers, Bills and Vikings in Detroit (24-7 combined record, .77 win percentage). By the time Sunday rolls around, the Lions will have only lost twice at home in the last 366 days, so getting two losses out of those three would likely take a miracle.

So which of these two ultimately takes home the top seed? Or does a dark horse emerge down the stretch? I think it’s Detroit, but let’s first eliminate any of the potential dark horses.

There is no one in the NFC West that will get to the (at least) 13 wins it will requite to win the NFC’s top seed. They will continue to cannibalize each other. Only Arizona can actually get to 13 wins and that’s only if they run the table. Not happening. Sorry, NFC West. Same story in the NFC South minus the cannibalization. That division just stinks. The Buccaneers are the best team but they’re too injured and Atlanta is a mess right now. Like Arizona, the Falcons would need to finish 7-0 to get to 13. Crossing off the South.

That leaves the Vikings, Packers and Commanders as the only real threats (man, the NFC is bad). Sam Darnold is regressing back to Sam Darnold, Jordan Love and the Packers just can’t seem to find their offensive rhythm from a year ago, and the Commanders have dropped two straight and are a Hail Mary away from losing three of four. Given their respective schedules, Washington has the best chance of the three, but making up three games on Detroit over seven weeks seems unlikely. The Vikings and Packers are already down a game or two, respectively, and both have already lost a head-to-head and as mentioned earlier, will travel to Detroit for their second matchup. Injuries aside, I think they’re both destined to the Wild Card.

That brings us back to the Eagles. Philadelphia must win Sunday night to keep the record in common games level (both the Lions and Eagles lost to the Buccaneers). They also must figure out their offensive struggles over extended stretches. I’ve already figured this out, as has most of the fan base. It’s Jalen Hurts. Too many fans and media have the blinders on for Hurts. Look at his Super Bowl performance. Look as his numbers over the past six weeks. Okay, sure, that all is great. Now what do your eyes tell you? Is the Eagles offense living up to the talent? Is it threatening from opening kick to final whistle? How many times per game does the quarterback leave a touchdown or explosive play on the field? Don’t lie to yourself. This happens every week with Hurts. In my opinion, he’s so terrified of turning the ball over that he’s become too selective in his reads. He’s second-guessing everything. Instead of processing open man – throw ball, he’s processing open man… still open… now throw. It’s already too late then. See and react. Trust your read.

There was a story out of LSU after Jayden Daniels’ first season there with Brian Kelly. Kelly wanted Daniels to throw some interceptions. Not on purpose, obviously, but Kelly felt Daniels was too concerned with NOT throwing interceptions. Too few interceptions meant he wasn’t pushing the offense enough. To be great you have to flirt with reckless. Hurts is either way too conservative or just incompetent, and the stretches where he and the offense are rolling lead me to believe it’s not the latter. He simply has to be better for the Eagles to catch Detroit and more importantly, make a deep playoff push. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith must be more involved. They’re open and Hurts is failing them and the offense.

And that’s the rub. The Eagles just aren’t on Detroit’s level as long as Hurts has his heels in the mud while the rest of the offense charges forward. The Lions point differential is a point shy of doubling Philadelphia’s. Dan Campbell’s squad doesn’t allow bad teams like the Jaguars to hang around. The Eagles offense has the talent and potential to get there, but they need their quarterback to take that step. And maybe the top seed isn’t the best thing for the Eagles anyway.

Given how Atlanta has looked lately, and how the NFC West is a bar fight, the NFC East has the inside lane on at least the 2nd seed. If the Eagles can clinch that second spot early, they’ll likely have at least one and possibly two de-facto byes against the Cowboys and Giants in the final two weeks of the season. If you were to combine that with a potential first round bye, the Eagles could go almost a month without a competitive, playoff intensity atmosphere. That’s less than ideal when hosting a Divisional Round playoff game.

Ultimately, though, the fate of the Eagles belongs to Hurts. If he can be decisive, aggressive QB1, the Eagles are as dangerous as any team in the NFL. If not, well, they’ll have front row seats to the Lions winning the NFC.