The Playoffs have been a bit disappointing this year. I blame football fans.
That’s right. Too many of you asked for this. You were too excited to see the Chiefs collapse. Too excited to see the Ravens stumble out of the gates. Too sick of the Bills. Too annoyed by the Eagles. Too done with the Lions. The playoffs need superstars. I don’t want three of the final four teams to have massive question marks at quarterback. This is why too many upsets in March Madness ruin the tournament down the line. Let’s not pretend the AFC playoffs have been anything but a disaster. Just a cluster -youknowwhat- of turnovers and sloppiness.
Anyway, if you’re not paying your mortgage by fading my picks you are missing out.
Last Week: 0 – 4 – 0
Playoffs: 2 – 8 – 0
Sunday, January 25
(2)Patriots at (1)Broncos [3:00PM ET, CBS]
A year ago we had Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, a stacked Eagles team, and the red hot Commanders competing for Super Bowl privileges. This year we have a weird Rams team, a boring Seattle offense, a dreadfully dull Broncos team now without their starting quarterback, and a Patriots quarterback with 2 interceptions and 6 fumbles (3 lost) the last two weeks. This is isn’t exactly the elite level of football we are used to on championship weekend. With that said, I will happily sit on my couch for seven hours on Sunday because football is football, and football is the best.
Even though one team still has its starting quarterback, the strategy for both teams will look the same: Stop the run and force the opposing quarterback to beat you. Drake Maye has been a turnover machine this postseason. If Denver’s pass rush can get home rushing only four, they win. I think that’s how Sean Payton is approaching this contest. His best bet to win is by forcing Maye to lose. Maybe Payton trusts Jarrett Stidham to run the offense without limitation, but I doubt it. I’d expect a conservative approach with a heavy dose of trickery and letting the defense win the game for you.
If I’m the Patriots, I don’t let Maye drop back to pass in the pocket until the 2nd quarter. Run the football, add in a heavy dosage of screens and/or designed rollouts just to slow the Denver pass rush, and allow Maye to settle into the game. Keep it boring. Bore the crowd. Lull the defense and frustrate/slow that pass rush. Punts are good here. You only lose if you turn the football over. That’s the game in a nutshell. If you punt, you win. Turn it over, you lose. I’m taking the points because I trust Denver’s defense more than anything else here. BRONCOS +4
(5)Rams at (1)Seahawks [6:30PM ET, FOX]
You can look at Seattle’s dominating win in the Divisional Round one of two ways. First, the Seahawks are the best team left in the playoffs and good luck to any team that gets in their way. Second, Kevin Patullo’s stink was so powerful it ruined a top three roster and got the Eagles eliminated by a JV 49ers roster. You can guess which avenue I’m taking.
As unpredictable and confusing and frustrating as the Rams have been over the last month or so, they are still the best team in the league. The Seahawks cannot win this game without Sam Darnold coming through in a big way. I know what you’re thinking.. Did you forget about Week 16? No. I have not, but do you recall Darnold’s team trailing by 16 in the 4th quarter? Do you remember his two interceptions? The amount of flukiness necessary in that 4th quarter for the outcome to flip was one in a million. Darnold’s production has also fallen off dramatically over the second half of the season. Feel free to compare for yourself…
Weeks 1 -9: 2,084 yards, 16 TD, 5 Int, 9 Sacks
Weeks 10-18: 1,964 yards, 9 TD, 9 Int, 18 Sacks
Seattle had two wins over playoff teams in that second stretch. The aforementioned fluke against the Rams, and the victory over the depleted 49ers to clinch the top seed on the final weekend of the regular season. Am I hating on Darnold and the Seahawks? Absolutely. This team is one-sided. The defense is spectacular. They are good enough to win without Darnold and the offense, but only if the Rams are sloppy and turn the football over. The Rams will turn Darnold over. The Rams will also suffer some catastrophic special teams mistake. The offense simply must stay clean to win.
The NFC was supposed to be a battle between the Rams, Packers, Eagles and Lions. The Packers had too many injuries and late game meltdowns. The Eagles couldn’t overcome Patullo. The Lions also were scuttled by failure at Offensive Coordinator and devastating injuries to their secondary. Only the Rams survived. The NFC Championship is their’s as long as they don’t give it away. RAMS +2.5