Have the Carolina Panthers arrived, will the Colts thrive or slide down the stretch, and finding a starting quarterback outside the first round is a pipe dream.
We’re still losing over here. I think the losing streak is well over a month. Next week we resort to flipping a coin.
Last Week: 5 – 8 – 2
Season: 73 – 89 – 2
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
Bills 19 at Texans 23
I’m not going to panic about the Bills or Chiefs until the postseason. Do they look bad at times? Yes. Do either of them look like contenders? No. I don’t care. Also, we know Buffalo has been unable to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. With the Chiefs trending toward the last playoff berth, what is the best way for Josh Allen and the Bills to avoid them until the AFC Championship? You guessed it… the 6th seed. Chess not checkers.
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Steelers at Bears
With all due respect, this is a battle to determine the worst division leader in football. Chicago is a potent run offense. Everyone sees Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson and thinks explosive aerial attack, but that’s just not the case for the Bears. They’re at their best when they are churning yards on the ground. With that said, the Bears have one win over a winning team. STEELERS +2.5
Patriots at Bengals
Though I’m still not a believer that New England is the best team in the AFC, it would take a surprising collapse for the Patriots to surrender the top seed in the conference. The Jets and Bears games are going to haunt the Bengals until next summer. Imagine Joe Burrow coming back to a 5-5 team just a game out of the AFC North? That would’ve been fun. BENGALS +6.5
Giants at Lions
The Lions ran into a defensive buzz saw last week. The Giants will now bear the brunt of that wrath. LIONS -12.5
Vikings at Packers
When I watch JJ McCarthy I think, Maybe NFL teams shouldn’t draft quarterbacks in the first round as often. But I’m wrong. Here’s why: Eleven of the 16 starting quarterbacks in the AFC start for the team that drafted them in the first round. Las Vegas, New York, Cleveland, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are the exceptions, but four of those starters were still first round selections elsewhere. And Cleveland’s preferred but injured starter was also a first rounder (Deshaun Watson). Only four NFC teams start quarterbacks that were drafted outside the first round (Hurts, Prescott, Purdy and whoever the Saints sacrifice that week.) Of the twelve NFC teams that start first round quarterbacks, eight of those quarterbacks start for the team that drafted them in the first round (injuries aside). So yeh, I’m an idiot. Good luck waiting around until later in the draft for a starting quarterback. VIKINGS +6.5
Seahawks at Titans
Last week was why I don’t consider Seattle a true contender in the NFC. Sam Darnold is a regular season quarterback. He’s just not going to get you over the hump in those high caliber games. Maybe he can do it with a dominant run game on his side, but as I mentioned a few weeks back, the Seahawks don’t have that. They are a pass heavy offense. I wouldn’t go as far as to call them one-dimensional, but they’re 29th in rush yards per attempt. SEAHAWKS -13
Colts at Chiefs
This isn’t quite do-or-die for the Chiefs, but it’s do-or-die eve. One more loss is about all Kansas City can afford before their playoff hopes go up in smoke. I’m a big believer that Jonathan Taylor deserves MVP. I’m not as big a believer in the Colts. Their last seven games are a gauntlet. After the Chiefs, Indianapolis plays division rivals Houston and Jacksonville twice with the Seahawks and 49ers sandwiched in between. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say 2-5 is as likely as 5-2 over that span. CHIEFS -3.5
Jets at Ravens
If this were the only game on TV Sunday I would watch it, but it’s not, so I’m probably not going to pay it much attention. The Jets are a tough watch and Baltimore and Lamar Jackson are still finding their feet. This is the Ravens last cupcake, so they better get everything fine tuned before they face Joe Burrow (twice), Pittsburgh (twice), New England and Green Bay. JETS +13.5
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Browns at Raiders
I will watch because I’m interested in how the Shedeur Sanders saga plays out. I’m also interested to see if Geno Smith survives multiple interactions with Myles Garrett. Also, why is Smith still starting? It’s over. He’s toast. A few weeks ago against the Jaguars he refused to come out of the game after appearing to be injured. I’m wrong for assuming this, but while the broadcast praised him for his toughness and grit, I thought he looked like a guy who knew if he came out he would never see the field again because regardless of who the backup was, they would have been better. BROWNS +3.5
Jaguars at Cardinals
I thought Jacksonville had the most impressive win last week. Not because the Chargers are a juggernaut or anything, but because of how the Jaguars bounced back after such a devastating and demoralizing loss in Week 10. In some ways the Jaguars are the same old Jaguars; dumb mistakes, poor execution, questionable coaching. However, the Liam Coen Jaguars are without a doubt tougher and more resilient. I can’t wait to see how they almost blow this game. JAGUARS -2.5
Eagles at Cowboys
The Eagles could get embarrassed here if they’re not on their game. Dallas’ offense is really good. The playoffs are a still in reach for the Cowboys. Not likely, but within reach. I know the Cowboy defense has struggled all year, but the Eagles offense would be inept against a scout team at this point. Maybe the Eagles offense puts it all together like they did against the Giants last month, but I think there’s too much ineptitude and drama surrounding this offense. At some point the levy will break and then and only then will the bosses realize change is needed. COWBOYS +3
Falcons at Saints
I love football. I’m already sad we only have one weekend after this of full football. That means a full college slate Saturday followed by the NFL on Sunday. It flies by so fast. With that said, I think I can go without watching this matchup, especially with Drake London sidelined. Chris Olave is also pretty awesome. Great job by Buffalo by not going after him. Josh Allen definitely doesn’t need a WR1. SAINTS -2
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Buccaneers at Rams
It’s been a disastrous season for the Buccaneers from an injury perspective. They’ve lost three of four and news on the injury front is not encouraging. While Chris Godwin may return this week, it appears Bucky Irving is not close according to reports. The offense has struggled without Irving and a more potent run game would do wonders to keep Baker Mayfield upright and healthy. There is some brighter news from a schedule standpoint. After the Rams, the only team with a winning record on Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule is the Panthers. Also, what happened to the Rams last week? Whenever I give in and declare they are the best team in the NFL they drop a half like their 2nd half against Seattle last week. RAMS -7
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Panthers at 49ers
I’m thrilled for Carolina to be in this spot. I only hope we get Week 11 Bryce Young and not Week 9 or 10 Bryce Young. Evolving as an NFL quarterback is as much about consistency as anything else, so hopefully Young can string together some solid weeks as the Panthers make an unexpected run at the NFC South crown. While the division title is very much in play, so is a Wildcard berth, and getting the head-to-head tiebreaker over San Francisco would be massive when playoff positioning comes around. I love the Panthers here. I’m just terrified of how they’ll respond to a huge game in front of a national audience with real expectations on them now. Run the football, Dave Canales. That 49er defense is decimated by injuries. Run it early. Run it often. Then run it again. PANTHERS +7