The Saints are in even more trouble than you may think, the Chiefs are red hot, and Washington did this to themselves…
I see the board very clearly this week. I think 12-4 is in play, which means 3-13 is more likely. Buckle up.
Last Week: 5 – 8 – 0
Season: 58 – 63 – 0
Thursday (8:20PM ET)
Ravens 28 at Dolphins 6
Just as everyone expected… here come the Ravens. No, beating the Bears and Dolphins doesn’t make you a contender again, but that’s essentially the schedule for Baltimore until Week 16.
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Bears at Bengals
Grading a draft class less than two years after the draft is generally a mistake, but it’s not trending in the right direction for Chicago and Caleb Williams. Drake Maye is clearly the best quarterback of that class with Jayden Daniels second and Williams or Bo Nix third (I’d go Williams). Add in passing on Tyler Warren for Colston Loveland this past spring and you can better understand the torture of being a Bears fan. I still think about the Eagles passing on Justin Jefferson for Jalen Reagor. Imagine watching Maye and Warren together for the next decade. Chicago had that opportunity. BENGALS +2.5
Vikings at Lions
Carson Wentz gutting out a season-ending injury to keep Minnesota afloat while JJ McCarthy nursed a sprained ankle is commendable. Wentz wasn’t awesome in relief but he was pretty good whenever the Vikings could run the football, which is no different than 80% of NFL quarterbacks. In their two wins with Wentz, Minnesota averaged 5.69 and 4.47 yards per carry (QB scrambles excluded). In their three losses, those averages plummeted to 3.22, 3.21 and 3.09. Football is so much easier if the run game is firing. LIONS -8
Panthers at Packers
Hear me out on this, but I thought Carolina’s performance against Buffalo last week was encouraging. That team came out so flat that I thought for the first time it was officially Bryce Young’s team. They needed their quarterback out there to give them life. The Panthers have fallen behind several times this season and they were never as lifeless as they were Sunday. Young has struggled immensely at times but he’s been a baller this season and that Panthers team was dead without him. Yeh, you’re right, none of that makes sense. Please forget you read that. PANTHERS +13 (If Young plays.)
Chargers at Titans
I had a conversation with someone recently about Cam Ward and how the Titans messed up. Abdul Carter was the “can’t miss” prospect of the 2025 draft. You don’t take a flyer with the top pick. You take the sure thing. Yes, even sure things in the NFL Draft don’t always pan out, but Carter will be a perennial all pro. I’m not sure Ward will have a job in three years. CHARGERS -8.5
Falcons at Patriots
Atlanta demonstrated what a culture loss looks like in Week 8. Your starting quarterback is out. Your star receiver is out. There were injuries on the defense as well. You still can’t lose like THAT to one of the most broken teams in the league, at home, no less. The Falcons have a top three running back and a bruising back up at the same position. The Dolphins entered as the worst run defense in the NFL. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 29 yards on 13 carries. Come on. That’s a culture loss. No grit. No pride. Atlanta lost that game before the opening kick. PATRIOTS -5.5
49ers at Giants
The Cam Skattebo injury was a bummer for Giants fans but spare me the dirty hip drop tackle nonsense. First of all, Zack Baun wasn’t in pursuit of a ball carrier. He was in coverage. Both Baun and Skattebo jumped for a ball and then landed tangled up. Second, Giants fans should blame their quarterback for such a horrific pass. That pass is supposed to be on the chest, not sailing eight feet in the air. 49ERS -2.5
Colts at Steelers
The Colts are really good but I’m not fully ready to dive in. They’re 2-1 against winning teams and an ambiguous call from 1-2. However, I’m a firm believer that if you can run the football on your terms then you are threat to any opponent in any environment. No one runs the football like the Colts right now. Sure, the Colts are only 5th in yards per attempt, but look a little closer at the teams above them. Baltimore’s QB has rushed for 180 yards at 6.9 clip. Josh Allen has scrambled for 261 at 5.3 per carry. Justin Fields and Jayden Daniels are next at 288/5.4 and 211/4.8, respectively. What about Daniel Jones? 86 yards at 2.9 yards per attempt. Stats lie sometimes. The Colts have the best rushing attack in the NFL. COLTS -3
Broncos at Texans
I’m very curious to see how Bo Nix and the Denver offense perform against a respectable defense this week. I also fear for CJ Stroud’s safety. According to Shane Haff, Week 8 was the first time in 25 games that Stroud wasn’t sacked. Even worse, in 23 of those 25 games, Stroud was sacked more than once. I think this is where I mention that Denver is first in the NFL in sack percentage, pressure rate, and sacks per game. Yikes. BRONCOS +2
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Jaguars at Raiders
The Jaguars gained a ton of momentum from beating the Chiefs and promptly fell flat on their face, getting outscored 55-19 in subsequent weeks. The Raiders are a nice “get right” opportunity out of the bye for an offense that lost their run game over the last month. JAGUARS -2.5
Saints at Rams
New Orleans has a quarterback problem (no duh), and I mean that from a draft perspective as well. Who is the big prospect entering the 2027 draft? All the preseason big names flopped mightily this season. I know some team will talk themselves into a quarterback, but I’m not sure there’s a first round talent right now. That’s bad news for a Saints team destined for a top five pick and no QB answer on the roster. RAMS -14
Chiefs at Bills
Kansas City is head and shoulders the best team in the NFL right now. People underestimated how devastating that Rashee Rice injury and subsequent suspension was to the Chiefs over the past year. Washington bottled them up for a half (thanks in large part to a dropped pass), but Kansas City has been scorching hot. By my count, the Chiefs have had 18.5 meaningful drives (essentially the outcome was still in doubt) over the past three weeks. (The half drive was right before halftime on Monday night where time was limited.) Of those 18.5 drives, 12 have resulted in touchdowns. Two ended in field goals. They punted only once. Good luck to the rest of the NFL. CHIEFS -2
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Seahawks at Commanders
Not at all shocked by Washington’s collapse this season. They got too high on their own smoke this offseason. While they did reach the NFC Championship game, they weren’t on the level of the real NFC contenders. Detroit fell apart due to injury. The Eagles eliminated the Packers and Rams, who were both true contenders. So instead of continuing to add young talent and build for the future, Washington went all in on old pieces and scuttled any hopes of another promising season. You could see it from a mile away. SEAHAWKS -3
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Cardinals at Cowboys
This could be Jonathan Gannon’s final stand. Arizona has competed all season but there’s no climbing out of a 2-6 hole, especially in the NFC West. This is a must win for Arizona or there will be a house cleaning to the fullest extent over the coming months. CARDINALS +2.5