Due to traveling last weekend and illness this week, I was only able to catch up on a handful of the games I missed, so these picks will stink.
Last Week: 7 – 8 – 0
Season: 77 – 58 – 3
Thursday (8:15PM ET)
Bengals 34 at Ravens 35
The Chase Brown fumble cost Cincinnati the game. I know it happened midway through the 3rd quarter but the Bengals just limited Baltimore to one first down on two drives right out of the half. The Ravens were broken. They couldn’t get anything going and the Bengals had scored on their last two possessions. Then the fumble woke up the Ravens and they scored on every possession after. The dropped interception by Cam Taylor-Britt was also a huge missed opportunity. The difference between the Bengals and Ravens last night was the Ravens making plays and the Bengals missing plays. Obviously, the Bengals didn’t miss many, but the fumble and dropped interception were enough to let Baltimore steal a win.
Early, Early Game (9:30AM ET)
Giants at Panthers
I still don’t think the Giants are a bad team. They’ve been blown out by the Vikings and Eagles, but four out of their five other losses were all by one score. What I don’t understand about the Giants is their offensive strategy. In the 1st half last week against Washington, the Giants went three-and-out twice, fumbled once and scored seven points. Malik Nabers had one target and no receptions. In the 2nd half, the Giants scored on every drive and Nabers was targeted 10 times. He finished with 9 receptions for 59 yards, all in the 2nd half. I say this all the time: Get the football to your best players. One target is absurd. Do you think Washington just all of sudden decided to switch up their Nabers strategy in the 2nd half? Did they forget their strategy? No. The Giants made an emphasis to get Nabers the ball. Don’t be stupid. Get your best players the football hell or high water. GIANTS -6.5
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Patriots at Bears
People love to argue that young quarterbacks need weapons to throw to in order to be successful early. I totally agree. I also think young quarterbacks can become undone by having too many weapons early in their career. That Bears offense is tense. You can feel DJ Moore on the verge of eruption, and I don’t mean in production. Remember this when people say players only care about money. Moore just got paid. His team is pretty lousy and he’s not getting the ball. He wants the ball because he can help the team win. I’m not defending the antics, but I also get the frustration. That coaching staff has two months to get this right or Caleb Williams will have another new system to learn this summer. BEARS -6
Bills at Colts
The Colts need to get their run game on track if their going to find a way into the postseason. You don’t want Joe Flacco dropping back that many times without an effective play action. Buffalo’s pass defense and pass rush are middle of the pack or worse, so the Colts should have success downfield if they can get Flacco settled. Minnesota made sure Flacco was under pressure and on edge all night and you could see it impacted his comfort in the pocket. Buffalo hasn’t lost in a month. They also haven’t played a winning team in a month. They’re due. COLTS +3.5
Broncos at Chiefs
Kansas City is coming off a big Monday Night Football win and they visit the Bills next week. If they’re going to drop a game before December this is it because we know they’re not losing in Buffalo. BRONCOS +7.5
Falcons at Saints
The NFC South outside of Carolina looked highly competitive in September. Since then the Saints have dropped seven straight and fired their coach. Tampa Bay has lost four of five and has played the better part of that stretch without three of their top receivers. All this while Atlanta has cruised to win five of six and has all but clinched the division already with two wins against the second place Buccaneers. SAINTS +3.5
49ers at Buccaneers
I’m paying close attention to this one. If the 49ers come out and dust the floundering Buccaneers with Christian McCaffrey back, then the Lions and the rest of the NFC contenders should take notice. If the horrible injury luck and overall sloppy play continue, I may be willing to write off Kyle Shanahan’s squad as contenders this season. Sometimes a bye week fixes a lot of problems. Other times it just delays the inevitable. BUCCANEERS +6.5
Steelers at Commanders
A drubbing of the lowly Panthers excluded, the Commanders have not looked all that special over the last month. They’ve score only three 2nd half touchdowns over the last month and one of those was a fluke Hail Mary. How Jayden Daniels does against Pittsburgh’s defense is going to be fun. STEELERS +2.5
Vikings at Jaguars
I didn’t even know Trevor Lawrence got hurt. I also thought for sure Doug Pederson would be fired after they let him visit Philadelphia. VIKINGS -7
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Titans at Chargers
The Chargers are quietly the best team no one is talking about. Sure, their schedule has been mostly a cakewalk, but they are physically dominating teams. Did you know the top three running backs in the NFL this season were all free agents? Did you know the 10th (Tony Pollard) and 11th (JK Dobbins) rushers were also free agents? Pollard is the only one not on a current playoff team. Running backs matter. Please don’t tell Jerry Jones. CHARGERS -7
Eagles at Cowboys
I don’t care that Dallas looks like trash and their overpaid franchise quarterback is out. I don’t care that they can’t stop anybody on defense or that they can’t run the football. AT&T Stadium has been house of horrors for the Eagles. I think the last time we ran through Dallas at home was the 2017 Super Bowl season. I’m expecting a miserable experience and just hoping the Eagles pull it out. On the plus side, AJ Brown appears good-to-go, so at least the offense will have no excuses. COWBOYS +7.5
Jets at Cardinals
I still don’t trust either of these teams but I’m starting to like Arizona’s physical style of offense. Pound the ground game, get Kyler Murray on the move and hit your big tight end matched up against smaller defensive backs. If Marvin Harrison Jr can find a bit more consistency, I think the Cardinals will be a tough out in January. CARDINALS +2
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Lions at Texans
Houston is badly injured, I know that, but they were horrible in the 2nd half last Thursday. They were also horrible in the 2nd half against Buffalo earlier in the season. And against the Packers in Week 7. And the Colts in Week 8. It’s a 60 minute game, fellas. The Lions don’t take the 2nd half off. Or the first. Or any snap throughout those 60 minutes. LIONS -3.5
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Dolphins at Rams
I was impressed by the Dolphins last week. I had written them off. I think it’s likely too late for them to make a playoff run, but they could certainly make it interesting with a win Monday and the Raiders and Patriots on deck. Also, The NFL needs to stop ejecting players for unintentional dangerous hits. This is football. It’s all dangerous. And ejecting players for throwing punches at people with helmets on is dumb, too, on all accounts. RAMS -1