Injuries are mounting around the league, Bo Nix is lucky to be in Denver, and why the Panthers screwed up 4th and 3… twice.
Last Week: 12 – 3 – 1
Season: 35 – 27 – 2
As you can see, I nailed it last week. Who’s excited for the correction?
Thursday (8:15PM ET)
Buccaneers 30 at Falcons 36
Kirk Cousins has a gift. That gift is quarterbacking teams to wins they had no business winning. Cousins also has the Eli Manning gene. You’re not terrified of him, he in fact always looks terrified, and yet somehow you lose and he’s smiling after 60 minutes.
Early, Early Game (9:30AM ET)
Jets at Vikings
I never doubted it, but it’s perfectly clear now that the Packers were not the issue in Aaron Rodgers’ final seasons there. It was Rodgers that underperformed in the postseason, then blamed management and complained about the roster until they finally had enough. Now Rodgers is floundering with a dysfunctional organization, a poor coach and no offensive line. Meanwhile, the Packers have rebuilt themselves on the fly with a new, younger quarterback that isn’t whining. VIKINGS -2.5
Early Games (1:00PM ET)
Panthers at Bears
I like this Panthers team. However, I didn’t love the 4th and 3 decisions in the 2nd half. The fake punt late in the 3rd seemed reckless, especially at your own 35. It failed, giving the Bengals a field goal despite not gaining a yard. Two possessions later, in a 10 point game with just under eight minutes to go, the Panthers kicked the field goal on 4th and 3. I guess my issue here was less with the field goal and more about the 3rd down call. It’s 3rd and 3; you’ve been running the football well all afternoon. Andy Dalton was fine but not great. Four of Chuba Hubbard’s last five carries went for at least five yards. Run the ball there and as long as he doesn’t lose yards you run it again on 4th down. I think football from the high school level through the pros is too in love with throwing the football. PANTHERS +4
Ravens at Bengals
Outside of Green Bay, Justin Tucker has been the worst kicker I’ve seen this season. Read that sentence again. It’s shocking that, in a league where half the kickers are crushing 60 yarders, Tucker is 1/4 from beyond 45 yards. Anyway, the Bengals show up in big games and if they can steal this one they’re looking at a possible 3-1 or 4-0 stretch over the next month. BENGALS +2
Dolphins at Patriots
No one expects a head coach to excel without his starting quarterback. On the other hand, what Mike McDaniel has put on the field the last two weeks was astonishingly bad. You still have great receivers and a good backfield. 389 yards in 120 minutes is almost impossible. Spare your eyes and stay away from this slap fight. PATRIOTS -1
Browns at Commanders
Through four weeks the Commanders look like the best team in the NFC East. I’m sold on Jayden Daniels but not yet sold on the Commanders as a playoff team. The Eagles and Cowboys are a mess but those are two talented teams that understand the season is long and in a bad division you’re never out of it. I have no idea why I like the Browns here but I’m going with it. BROWNS +3
Colts at Jaguars
I know exactly what Doug Pederson is telling his squad right now: Get this dub, we sweep in Europe, come back 3-4 and we’re right back in this thing. What he isn’t telling his team is after they get back to North America the Packers, Eagles, Vikings and Lions are on deck. It’s probably a good bet Doug is with his family on Thanksgiving. The only thing to save his job would be the reason he was hired in the first place; quarterback growth. Unfortunately, Trevor Lawrence has regressed drastically over the last 12 months. Many believe injuries and drops were the culprits at the end of the 2023 season but he’s sailing balls all over the field and taking sacks that are crippling the offense this season. Lawrence’s regression has taken the Jaguars with him. JAGUARS -3
Bills at Texans
I don’t like the AFC South. Everyone is either bad or overrated. The Texans need Joe Mixon to get healthy and a Bills team fresh off an embarrassing national TV loss will be a lot to handle. I know the young Houston secondary has been solid but they’ve also been the product of a generous QB schedule. Anthony Richardson in Week 1, Caleb Williams in Week 2 and the aforementioned struggling Lawrence last week are not within a mile of Josh Allen’s level. BILLS +1
Afternoon Games (4:05PM ET)
Raiders at Broncos
Bo Nix is redefining the quarterback position and not in a good way. At one point last week he had seven completions for -7 yards. Denver’s run game finally showed some signs of life last week, so maybe there’s hope for a more balanced offense, which will undoubtedly help the rookie QB. I will say, I like how Sean Payton is unwavering in his support for Nix. The same can be said in Tennessee with Will Levis. Most young quarterbacks don’t enter the league and take over like Jayden Daniels. It takes time and confidence. Allowing them to learn and grow without the threat of their career being over right away is a massive advantage. BRONCOS -3
Cardinals at 49ers
During their rout of the Patriots last week, the FOX team mentioned how the 49er organization knew what they had in Jauan Jennings and were not at all shocked by his breakout performance this season. Bull****. If that were the case, why would they pay Brandon Aiyuk all that money if they knew Jennings was a stud AND still had a first round receiver to add to the roster? Wouldn’t you then trade the whiny, overpaid veteran? Paying Aiyuk didn’t make sense to me when they did it and it makes even less sense now. CARDINALS +7.5
Packers at Rams
Matthew Stafford just needs to survive this week and get to the Week 6 bye. I’m guessing Cooper Kupp will be back in Week 7 and perhaps Puca Nucai soon after. I fear it may even be too late by then. Los Angeles desperately need a win last week and they just couldn’t get anything done on their final two possessions. This seems like an obvious Packers win but Sean McVay finds a way when most coaches can’t. RAMS +3
Giants at Seahawks
No Malik Nabers means the Giants already bad offense will be even worse. Maybe Daniel Jones will finally find some of his tight ends, especially rookie Theo Johnson who will be a weapon one day. SEAHAWKS -7
Sunday Night (8:20PM ET)
Cowboys at Steelers
Dallas will be without DeMarcus Lawrence for at least a month and Micah Parsons appears unlikely to play Sunday night. I really liked the Cowboys here but I don’t know how an already struggling defense overcomes those absences. It’s not much better for Dallas offensively either. They started fast against the Giants and then held on for much of the 2nd half. Picking Dak Prescott and the offense to finally put together a full 60 minutes against the league’s top defense seems unwise. I’m going to do it anway. COWBOYS +2.5
Monday Night (8:15PM ET)
Saints at Chiefs
Stop sending me the Patrick Mahomes/Jalen Hurts comparisons through four weeks. The stats may look the same but the records do not. And Mahomes doesn’t commit turnovers at the absolute worst times. And Mahomes isn’t out there moping around like he has no idea what to do. And Mahomes doesn’t run like there’s a treadmill with the resistance cranked to ten under his feet. So stop. Just stop. I told you last week Kareem Hunt would lead the team in touches. Get ready for the breakout game. SAINTS +5.5