I think the NFL as a whole needs to reevaluate their philosophy/strategy when it comes to quarterbacks. I don’t think quarterback needs to be the physical position the league makes it out to be. Everyone falls in love with the Lamar Jackson/Josh Allen types, but those guys are one of one. They’re unicorns. Look at the greatest NFL quarterbacks. They’re not cutting up a defense with their legs. They’re surgical with their eyes and their arms.
I went through the last decade of NFL playoff teams and paired that to the top ten rushing quarterbacks each season. Here’s what I found…
First of all, there were only three seasons where half the playoff teams featured a top ten rushing quarterback. Every other season except one had four playoff teams with a top ten rushing quarterback. I don’t know why four is the number, but it seems to be where this thing settled. There were also some fun names that showed up. Tyrod Taylor, Mitch Trubisky, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, Marcus Mariota and Matthew Stafford all made one appearance over the last decade. Not quite the names I was expecting when I started this “research.” Other more obvious one-and-done guys were Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith.
Second, only one time over the last decade did more than two top ten rushers make it to the conference championships. That was way back in 2014 when Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck led their teams to deep playoff runs. The concrete footed Tom Brady still won it all, by the way. Wilson was pretty obvious but Rodgers and Luck are not exactly the guys that come to mind when you think of running quarterbacks. In 2018 and ’19, none of the top ten rushing quarterbacks reached conference championship weekend. In fact, Patrick Mahomes’ first title came in that 2019 season and he finished outside the top ten in rushing (he was 13th).
Third, only two players have reached the NFL’s final four as a top ten rusher more than once over the last decade. I think the first is obvious (Mahomes) but the second may not be as easy. That’s right, it’s Aaron Rodgers. Cam Newton, Wilson, Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jackson and Player X have all made it once. I’ll give you a lot of money if you can guess who Player X is without cheating. You guessed it! Blake Bortles.
Finally, there were only two quarterbacks over the last ten years that have been a top ten rusher and won the Super Bowl that same season. Mahomes is again the no-brainer and the other didn’t play in the Super Bowl or even in the postseason at all. Let’s give Carson Wentz a hand!
One more thing… if you were wondering how many times a certain quarterback rushed among the top ten in the same year his team made the playoffs, I got you. Russell Wilson leads the way with six. Jackson and Allen are in second place with five. Mahomes is alone at four and then it’s Rodgers, Newton and Hurts with three. Alex Smith and Deshaun Watson did it twice and the aforementioned guys a few paragraphs above all clocked in with one.
That was fun. I don’t know if I accomplished anything or will change any minds with a pretty simple study of recent history. However, the facts don’t lie: A running quarterback is not at all critical to the overall success of a NFL franchise. In fact, I’d think it’d be easier to argue the opposite. The quarterbacks that are making deep playoff runs are the ones using their feet to set up their throws. Sure, they’ll obviously run when the opportunity presents itself, but they’re not looking to move the offense with their legs. Rodgers, Luck, Wilson and Mahomes won with the passing game aided by their scrambling, not the other way around.
This leads to the ultimate question: Are we sure we’re evaluating the quarterback position correctly? Franchises continually fall in love with supremely gifted athletes with the intention of developing them as quarterbacks. You don’t marry a woman hoping she becomes a great wife. You better have that part figured out beforehand.
Look at some of the 1st round QBS over the last decade. Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Mariota, Trubisky, Jones, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields were all drafted as supremely athletic quarterbacks. None developed the ability to lead an NFL offense with their arm. Anthony Richardson appears headed that way. (I’d add Deshaun Watson to that list but he was really good in Houston before his life fell apart, so I don’t know where to classify him.) Of course, taking pocket passers high in the draft is a crapshoot, too; Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Paxton Lynch, Josh Rosen, Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett all flopped. Bryce Young is flopping hard right now.
From a percentage standpoint, the success rate on 1st round “pocket passers” is slightly higher than the “athletic, running” breed of quarterback. Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Mahomes, Allen and Jordan Love have all at the very least been solid NFL franchise quarterbacks. None were scrambling quarterbacks in college. I’m unsure where to classify Tua Tugavoila, Trevor Lawrence or Baker Mayfield right now. They’re not busts but they’re not in the class of the guys I just listed. I think only Jackson and reluctantly, Murray would be considered franchise guys of the scramblers taken over the last decade. Not great.
I think what I’m saying is this… It’s hard enough to be right on a first round quarterback, so why not take the guy you know can somewhat read a defense and throw the football rather than a guy relying on his legs to make plays. If for nothing else, playoff success says you really don’t need your quarterback to be a running machine.
*****
Thursday Night Pick; Giants +5.5
The Cowboys always crush the Giants unless the game doesn’t matter, so I’m terrified of taking the Giants. However, I can’t tell if Dallas is starting slow or if the wheels are falling off. I think it may be the latter, which I was not expecting. With essentially no running game, I think the Cowboys and Dak Prescott will find themselves under some intense heat, which will hopefully keep this from being another Cowboys dusting of the Giants.