I mean, sure, it’d be tough to balance out the roster, and the defense would need to be built completely via trades or free agency as a result, but that’s got to be better than status quo, right?

Let’s pretend for a moment this was a realistic solution. If the Eagles passed on defensive players and drafted only offensive players, they would have more than enough assets to adequately build their defense. After all, the Eagles have been fantastic at finding offensive talent in recent drafts (McCoy, Jackson, Celek, the list goes on). It’d be easy to flip young offensive stars for solid defensive players.

I’m telling you, this makes complete sense. If you still suck at something after you’ve tried year after year to improve, you should probably stop, right? Conversely, if you excel at something, and you’ve proven you can consistently succeed, why not do it more? While the Eagles continually acquire offensive talent throughout the draft, they couldn’t draft a defensive star if a 25-year-old Reggie White was on the board staring them in the face.

If you don’t believe me, or think I’m being unreasonable (which I totally am), take a quick look at the defensive players the Eagles have drafted in the previous five drafts.

2007
Victor Abiamiri – 2^nd round, Defensive End: If spending time on injured reserve got you in the Hall of Fame, Abiamiri would be a first ballot candidate.
Stewart Bradley – 3^rd round, Linebacker: Showed a ton of potential in those earlier seasons. Then, he blew out his knee and got a concussion on opening day the next year. Never was the same player. Bradley just took a pay cut to stay on Arizona’s roster.
C.J. Gaddis – 5^th round, Defensive Back: Never made the Eagles team. Stuck around with the Falcons but never saw the field. Been out of the NFL since 2008.
Rashard Barksdale (Avon’s brother?) – 6^th round, Defensive Back: Failed to make the team. Out of the NFL after only appearing in six games.

2008
Trevor Laws – 2^nd round, Defensive Tackle: Showed flashes, but never good enough to stay in the rotation and make an impact. Consistently outplayed by undrafted free agents like Antonio Dixon and less heralded free agent signings like Derek Landri.
Bryan Smith – 3^rd round, Defensive End: Lasted one year with the Eagles. Appeared in six games before he was a goner.
Quintin Demps – 4^th round, Safety: Showed some promise as a rookie before getting burnt like toast in the NFC Championship Game. Eagles waived him prior to the 2010 season. Demps played for the Houston Texans last season.
Jack Ikegwuonu – 4^th round, Defensive Back: Valued as a steal at the time because a knee injury dropped him out of the 1^st round. Ikegwuonu played in one game before being released in November of 2009. Since then, he’s been arrested for stealing sneakers. Seriously.
Joe Mays – 6^th round, Linebacker: Mays never prospered as an Eagle and was traded in 2010 to Denver for RB J.J. Arrington (aka nothing). Mays has started more than half his games with the Broncos at middle linebacker.
Andy Studebaker – 6^th round, Linebacker: Placed on the Eagles practice squad before being picked up by the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s been a reliable player there, even starting five games in 2011.

2009
Macho Harris – 5^th round, Defensive Back: Waived after one year with the Eagles and then played three games for the Redskins in 2010. And that’s the extent of his NFL career.
Moise Fokou – 7^th round, Linebacker: Solid player, but even on a team with a linebacker corps as weak as Philadelphia’s, Fokou has struggled to hold on to a starting spot. Considering he was a 7^th round selection, he should be considered a reasonably successful pick.

2010
Brandon Graham – 1^st round, Defensive End: Struggled in rookie season, bum knee in 2011. 2012 will determine whether he’s a bust or not.
Nate Allen – 2^nd round, Safety: Ditto.
Daniel Te’o-Nesheim – 3^rd round, Defensive End: Waived before the 2011 season and then signed to practice squad before Tampa Bay claimed him. (For those keeping track, that’s two third round picks in three years that failed to even make the team in their sophomore season. Brutal.)
Trevard Lindley – 4^th round, Defensive Back: Gone before the 2011 season. (I really liked Lindley. Thought he had potential. Clearly, I was wrong. He hadn’t played for anyone else since being cut UNTIL… that’s right; the Eagles signed him in January 2012. Weird.)
Keenan Clayton – 4^th round, Linebacker: Clayton’s played in 21 games since being drafted and started once. Hasn’t been more than a special teams contributor.
Ricky Sapp – 5^th round, Defensive End: Left the Eagles in August of 2011 for undisclosed reasons. He was waived shortly after and is currently a member of the Jets.
Jamar Chaney – 7^th round, Linebacker: Started all 16 games for the Eagles in 2011 and still hasn’t made a play. Ok, that’s a littler harsh, but Chaney appears to be a bigger part of the problem than the solution.
Kurt Coleman – 7^th round, Safety: I’ll say this: Coleman isn’t afraid. He plays hard and doesn’t shy away from contact. Sadly, he’s not a good tackler and his coverage skills are suspect. Both attributes are kind of important to the safety position.

2011
Jaiquawn Jarrett – 2^nd round, Safety: For those keeping track, that’s four safeties drafted in the last three drafts. Perhaps the team should explore a new scouting approach? Jarrett started two games and never did anything spectacular. Too early to tell what he’ll amount to, but since the Eagles are discussing upgrading the safety position AGAIN, it doesn’t look good for Jarrett, Allen, or Coleman.
Curtis Marsh – 3^rd round, Defensive Back: Appeared in seven games for the Eagles in 2011. I’d bet 89% of Eagles fans couldn’t even guess his number. (Where did the days go when the Eagles drafted talented cornerbacks with their eyes closed?)
Casey Matthews – 4^th round, Linebacker: After Clay Matthews took the NFL by storm in 2010, the Eagles hoped to cash in on some of that Matthews family magic. Sadly, things didn’t work out. Matthews started early in the season before getting benched and becoming a whipping boy for Philly fans.
Brian Rolle – 6^th round, Linebacker: Started 13 games as a rookie and was the most impressive defensive rookie. He’s undersized but has great instincts and makes big plays. We’ll see if the Eagles like him as much as I do.
Greg Lloyd – 7^th round, Linebacker: Never saw the field for the Eagles in 2011. Will probably be fighting for his NFL career come training camp.

As you can see, it’s no coincidence the Eagles defense as been the ugly sister in recent years. What’s worse, the Eagles used their first five picks in 2010 to take defensive players and then used three of their top four picks in 2011 to do the same, and still, the defense struggles. One poor draft hurts bad enough. Blowing three or four consecutive drafts causes a franchise to suffer for years. We’re seeing that now with the Eagles. (It’s important to note that free agent signings [Babin, the now departed Samuel, Jenkins, Asomugha] have mostly kept the defense competitive.)

In order for the defense (and the Eagles as a team) to compete for a title in 2012, the front office must hit a few singles and maybe even a home run with their defensive draft picks this weekend. Or, the underachievers from past drafts could just suck less, because that’d work, too.

That’s right. This is the end of Manning’s days contending for Super Bowls. He chose money and contending for a playoff berth instead of pursuing what his brother already has: a second ring. I’m not angered by Manning’s choice to go to Denver, just a little sad (and confused).

I like Manning. I’ve always wanted him to win that second championship and assume his rightful place as the greatest quarterback to ever play football. Unfortunately, that status can’t be his without at least another Super Bowl win, and maybe two. In Denver, I don’t see him reaching the Super Bowl within the near future. In fact, the Broncos may even struggle to reach the postseason on a consistent basis.

What does Denver have that makes you believe they’re close to contending? Tim Tebow was obviously not an elite quarterback, but his receivers didn’t always make it easy, either. Drops are still drops, regardless of who’s throwing the football. As great as Manning is, he can’t catch what he throws. Even Gisele Bundchen knows that. The mediocre cast of receivers in Denver must improve dramatically for Manning to make a significant impact.

Denver’s running game? Ehh. Knowshon Moreno has been a huge disappointment in his first two seasons in Denver. While Willis McGahee resurrected his career with the Broncos, he’s now past his prime. His numbers also significantly declined as the 2011 season wore on. He’s certainly a talented back, but for how much longer, and can he give them enough down the stretch and into the playoffs? As we saw last season, the answer is no.

Everyone likes to point to the Bronco defense as a reason Manning chose the Broncos. It’s a fairly good point, too. Denver has a young, aggressive defense that gets after opposing quarterbacks. Von Miller was a game-changer in just his rookie season and a fully healthy Elvis Dumervil will significantly upgrade an already impressive pass rush. Still, the secondary is a gigantic question mark. The Broncos ranked below the middle of the pack in pass defense in 2011. And have we already forgotten that Tom Brady torched the Broncos for over 363 yards and six touchdowns, numbers that could have easily pushed 500 yards and 8 touchdowns had New England not called off the dogs?

Let’s also not forget about the coach. John Fox isn’t exactly an offensive wizard. His offense was brutal before Tebow took over the starting job and it was brutal (albeit more entertaining) after. His offenses in Carolina weren’t much better. Only the electric Steve Smith (whom Fox ignored too often) added a punch to Fox’s mundane scheme. Furthermore, and perhaps most importantly, Fox is a poor man’s Andy Reid. Fox won’t win you a championship. Sure, he’ll turn your lousy, downtrodden franchise into a competitive, respectable team that may compete for a division title or a Wildcard berth, but don’t expect too much more.

And finally, this is 2012 “I’m coming off multiple major neck surgeries” Peyton Manning. The Broncos aren’t getting MVP Peyton Manning from 2004, or even MVP Peyton Manning from 2008 or 2009, or even Pro Bowl Peyton Manning from 2010. We don’t know what they’re getting, and it’s hard for me to believe they know, either. To assume Manning is the same player this late in his career after sitting out a year is pretty optimistic. He’s the greatest quarterback to play the position, at least in my opinion, but it’s wishful thinking to believe he can carry a slightly above average Bronco team past the elite teams in the AFC.

So what was Manning thinking? Perhaps he knows something we don’t. Perhaps he and Mike Wallace have a gentlemen’s agreement to meet in Denver. Perhaps he believes Jonathan Stewart will come too. Perhaps Manning and the Broncos believe the current nucleus and a solid 2012 draft will propel the Broncos into the same class as the Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, and Texans. Though they could be right, I simply don’t see it.

Manning’s decision to sign with Denver was a business decision, not a winning decision. While I can’t fault him for that, I’m sad that I won’t see Peyton Manning in another Super Bowl. And if I’m wrong about that, I will gladly eat crow.

Bill Belichick allowing the Giants to score. Absolutely the right call. No question. Yes, the Giants could have botched a chip-shot field goal Chris Boniol-Tommy Hutton style or even fumbled while trying to run down the clock, but the likelihood of either happening was slim. The Patriots allowing time to tick away hoping the Giants would screw up would be equivalent to me never working and hoping I win the lottery one day instead.

Bill Belichick should have allowed the Giants to score one play earlier. Errh! Wrong. The Patriots had to play aggressively on first down so the possum play on 2^nd down would be effective. There’s no proof of this nor has Belichick confirmed anything, but I’m almost certain it was the case. Had he called off the dogs on 1^st down, the Giants, who were expecting such a move, could have surrendered. The very fact that Ahmad Bradshaw unsuccessfully tried to surrender on 2^nd down only proves the Giants (or at least, Eli Manning) were aware of such a scenario and decided not to score if given a free pass. Playing dead on 2^nd down was only successful because the Patriots competed on 1^st down. This is why Belichick is considered a genius.

Speaking of genius, I though Belichick outcoached Tom Coughlin. Of course, Coughlin laughed last as the winning coach, but look at the obstacles Belichick faced. Less talented team? Check. Worse defense? Check. Lousier receivers? Check. Dealing with more serious injuries? Check. Not given any lucky bounces or second chances while the Giants got three? Check, Facing the hottest quarterback in the playoffs? Check. And still, the Patriots controlled the 2^nd half and held the lead right up until those final minutes. Belichick’s preparation and unrivaled in-game management gave New England a chance to win. Sadly, the players couldn’t come through.

If you want proof of a specific scenario where Belichick got the best of Coughlin, I’ll give you two:

1. The final drive where Belichick allowed New York to score. Coughlin even acknowledged after the game he didn’t consider the Patriots would allow them to score. Only Eli Manning mentioned it to Coughlin and his teammates in the huddle. Whoops. (By the way, I love Tom Coughlin. I think he’s a fantastic coach. He’s everything Andy Reid isn’t. But it bothers me that after a loss in the Super Bowl, people all of sudden think Bill Belichick is a phony when in fact he gave his players every chance to win that game. They blew it.)

2. At the end of the 1^st half, the Patriots were driving while trailing by six. In addition to adding points to the scoreboard, the Patriots were deliberate about eating clock so Manning wouldn’t have another chance before the half. The Patriots were due the ball to start the 2^nd half and were obviously intent on taking advantage of back-to-back possessions. During that final 1^st half drive, the Giants had all three time outs. At no time did Coughlin call a time out to preserve time for his offense. Hello, Tom?? You have the hottest quarterback in the world right now. Eli (and the Manning’s in general) is the absolute best at adding quick points at the end of halves. It’s not like taking a time out would have aided the Patriots in some way. They had all three time outs as well. In fact, they didn’t start using their time outs until there were only 29 seconds left. Refusing to use timeouts not only played right into the Patriots’ hands, but it cost the New York offense an opportunity to add points.

Do defenses still decide championships? Thankfully, yes. The NFL’s final four came down to three teams with excellent defenses and one team that played the AFC West champion. If you want national attention and Sportscenter highlights; build yourself a high-flying offense. If you want championships; find an unwavering quarterback and put a brutally physical defense behind him.

Did the Giants deserve to win? Of course. They were the better team and made every play the Patriots couldn’t when it mattered most – the Manningham throw and catch, pressuring Brady in huge moments on New England’s final two drives, an unexpected and outstanding interception against one of the NFL’s elite pass-catchers – the list goes on and on. Still, the Giants should consider themselves lucky. I won’t even include the Victor Cruz fumble that was called back due to penalty. That wasn’t luck on the Giants part, just stupidity by the Patriots. The other two fumbles, however, were possessed by New York witchcraft. Each one bounced away from a trio of Patriots and directly into friendly arms. The Giants were good and lucky. The Patriots were nearly as good but unlucky. As they say, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

Did a New York victory make the world a more horrible place? Absolutely. Whenever you give Brandon Jacobs a free pass to run his mouth even though he hasn’t been worth anything in three years, you know something went horribly, horribly wrong.

Was the Rob Gronkowski injury as costly as made out to be? I think so. It was obvious he couldn’t run well. He couldn’t cut, and the Giants stopped paying attention to him after the 1^st quarter. Injured or not, though, he should have prevented that 4^th quarter interception. Regardless, plenty of teams have beaten the Giants this year with fewer receiving options than the Patriots had with Aaron Hernandez, Wes Walker, and Deion Branch, so I’m not convinced a healthy Gronk automatically flips the outcome. Besides, the Giants secondary is relatively weak, and Brady wasn’t under heavy pressure all game long as he was in in the Super Bowl four years prior. The Patriot receivers simply didn’t make the big plays that Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham did. Which leads us to…

Was Gisele Bundchen out of line when she called out her husband’s teammates? Nope. While her words may have caused Brady some tense moments at work, she was right. Brady can’t throw and catch the football. However, Brady wasn’t perfect, either, so perhaps Miss Welker should chime in at some point in the next few days. Let’s also not forget that drops paved the Giants’ road to a title. The Packers couldn’t catch anything three weeks ago… and lost. The 49er defense couldn’t catch anything… and lost. The Patriots couldn’t catch anything in the 4^th quarter… and lost. Congratulations, Giants. You were the best team over the final two months… and the luckiest SOB’s, too.

The Eagles will win the Super Bowl next season and every year there after. No doubt. Isn’t it obvious?

Indeed. Eli Manning is every bit as good the three aforementioned quarterbacks and undoubtedly the best of the group when push comes to shove in the 4^th quarter of a big game. That’s right, if you find yourself in a tight game trailing in the final minutes, then Eli Manning is your best option. I never thought I would type that sentence, but it’s true. Get used to it.

Once again, the New England Patriots couldn’t hold onto a lead late in the 4^th quarter against the Giants to bring home the Vince Lombardi trophy. Naturally, the blame has been divided and dished out appropriately. The real culprit, though, and the gift that kept the Giants season alive? Second chances.

In week 14, the Dallas Cowboys held a 12 point lead with 5:41 remaining. A win would have presumably laid the Giants to rest once and for all. Tom Coughlin was on the hot seat and a defense that delivered a title just a few years earlier was rapidly falling out of favor. That was until Eli Manning took it upon himself to rally the Giants, save their season and possibly even Coughlin’s job. The Giants went on to win four of their next five including a Wildcard round victory and a stunning upset over the Super Bowl favorite Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

After knocking off the Packers, the Giants again found themselves in a tight game with their season on the line. This time, though, Eli Manning and the Giant offense struggled to break through a vaunted San Francisco defense. With the score tied at 17, the Giants and 49ers traded possessions for the final minutes of regulation and into overtime. The 49er defense kept Manning at bay while the 49er offense curled into a ball and hid, failing miserably on five opportunities to win the game following Akers’ tying field goal. The San Francisco offense registered only one first down in those possessions and never came close to delivering the knockout blow. As a result, the Giants and Eli Manning hung around and eventually took advantage of another 49er miscue to finally win a game the 49er defense had dominated.

Last night, in Super Bowl XLVI, the Patriots were in a similar position. Up two with four minutes remaining and the chance to stretch the lead to five or nine or run out the remaining clock entirely, New England choked. On 2^nd and 11 from the Giants 44 with a reasonable field goal attempt just ten yards away, Tom Brady and a wide open Wes Welker failed to connect for a first down inside the Giants 20. On 3^rd and 11, Brady and Deion Branch couldn’t come through for a first down. Eli Manning and the Giants, for the third time in the previous two months, avoided the kill shot and were presented a second chance, and for the third time, they took full advantage.

Eli Manning calmly marched down the field like it was the 2^nd quarter of a September game. Only the urgency in Al Michaels’ voice and the petrified faces on the New England sideline indicated the magnitude of those moments. Manning didn’t care. He shrugged off the pressure and stole another Super Bowl from Bill Belichick and the Patriots, all because he and his Giant teammates were given too many second chances. While second chances offer redemption, they also forfeit victories. The Cowboys, 49ers, and Patriots left the door open. Eli Manning and the Giants walked through it. Now, they’re Super Bowl champions for the second time in four years.

(Tangent: Let me first say that I believe Justin Tuck meant no disrespect to Eli Manning. Considering Tuck was the first player Eli Manning hugged, I’m assuming they’re friends. However, I heard Justin Tuck on two separate post game shows mention that although Eli Manning won MVP, it could have gone to any member of the Giants 53 man roster. He even insinuated Eli won it because he was the quarterback.

While Manning would undoubtedly agree with Tuck’s assessment, Manning was clearly the Giants best player. He deserved sole possession of the MVP award. He didn’t win it because he was the quarterback (though I’m sure it didn’t hurt.) He won the prestigious award because without him, without the ice flowing through his veins, without his resiliency, without his uncanny ability to elevate his play in the biggest moments, the Giants don’t win that game. Eli Manning won the MVP because he was the best and most important one of those 53 players.)

Brady Falls Again.

The saddest part of Sunday’s outcome is that Tom Brady will be blamed for another Super Bowl loss even though he played well enough to win. In fact, I thought he outplayed Manning up until those closing minutes.

Instead, we’ll remember the intentional grounding; underthrowing Rob Gronkowski for an interception; the poor throw to Welker; the miscommunication with Branch; and another devastating sack on the final drive – reminiscent to the one he took on the final drive in Super Bowl XLII – as his defining moments. In fact, let’s look at each one.

The intentional grounding was a huge swing. It gave the Giant defense momentum and confidence from the outset. More importantly, those two points ultimately changed the whole dynamic of those final minutes. Without the safety, the Patriots hold a four point lead and the Giants are forced to score a touchdown on that final drive. Even if New York did find the end zone, the Patriots would only need a field goal to tie instead of the always difficult and nearly impossible “80 yard touchdown drive in less than a minute with only one timeout.”

The 4^th quarter interception was the game’s lone turnover, and while it didn’t result in points, it stalled the momentum New England had controlled for the entire 2^nd half. I don’t blame Brady for the throw. If you have an all-world, 6-7 tight end matched up against a linebacker one-on-one, you take that chance. Although Gronkowski was hobbled by injury, I think Brady, and every other NFL QB, would still take the same chance. Besides, the biggest mistake on that play was made by Gronkowski. Too often NFL receivers hang back and think about scoring over making the catch. DeSean Jackson does this all the time. At the very least, Gronkowski should have pulled Chase Blackburn to the ground and taken a penalty. Your quarterback is trusting you in that situation to make a play or at least prevent a turnover. Gronkowski was boxed out by a shorter, less athletic linebacker and was shoved off the ball with one arm. Obviously, it was not his finest moment.

I’m ok with Brady catching some flack for the Welker throw. Yes, Welker should have made the catch, but a better throw would have made Welker’s job significantly easier. It looked like one of those deals where the receiver expected the ball to be coming over one shoulder and the quarterback threw it over the other. It happened to Aaron Rodgers and Gregg Jennings three weeks ago. It happens to everyone. However, if Welker hangs on, the Patriots at least kick a field goal. If Brady makes a better throw, Welker possibly scores.

The Deion Branch failed 3^rd down conversion right after the Welker drop was, in my opinion, entirely Branch’s fault. Instead of settling down in the open area between the safety and linebacker, Branch continued across the field. Brady thought the veteran Branch would make the veteran move and sit between the defenders. He didn’t and that’s why Brady’s throw looked like it was thrown behind the open receiver. Such a devastating mistake on a play that could have ultimately clinched a Super Bowl title.

The sack on the final drive was as disappointing as the drive itself. I would have loved to see Brady win the game there and essentially reverse the script of Super Bowl XLII. Sadly, Brady looked dejected even as he walked onto the field. Missing an open Branch on the first play was huge. A completion there puts the Patriots at midfield and, considering Branch probably gets out of bounds, 45 seconds would still be on the clock with a timeout in hand. Another reception or two and it’s possible the Patriots get at least three shots at the end zone from inside the 25. Instead, the pass goes incomplete, Brady then throws a pass in the middle of the field to Aaron Hernandez that was dropped and then takes the sack on 3^rd down. Looking at the replay, there was little Brady could do to avoid the sack aside from another intentional grounding penalty. Still, the sack and the completion in the middle of the field two plays later were un-Brady-like. If you go over the middle with no timeouts, it has to be for a decent chunk of yardage.

As backwards as this sounds, I thought Brady played well enough to win. He just didn’t make enough plays to win. Eli Manning did, just as he has throughout the past two months. And with two Super Bowl titles and two Super Bowl MVP awards, I think it’s safe to say Eli was right along; he is in the same class as Brady and Peyton. He just knew it before anyone else.

Last Week:  2 – 0 – 0
Playoffs:     7 – 3 – 0

Sunday, February 5 (6:29PM ET)

1. Quarterbacks (duh)

I know, I know, it’s the most obvious factor of all, but I couldn’t ignore it.

Neither quarterback played exceptionally well in the conference championship round. In fact, if the 49ers secondary could catch, we’d probably be discussing Alex Smith’s unbelievable turnaround. But we’re not. Instead, we’re dissecting Tom Brady’s lackluster play and the grittiest performance of Eli Manning’s career.

With optimal conditions and two weeks of preparation and rest, I don’t expect another lousy performance from either quarterback. However, both Manning, and especially, Brady are susceptible to turnovers. Brady’s thrown multiple interceptions in two of his last four playoff appearances. Again, Manning would have been lucky to escape San Francisco with two interceptions and somehow he left with none. Both quarterbacks take risks and trust their receivers to bail them out. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s often what makes great quarterbacks great. But how many mistakes each quarterback makes and whether or not the defenses can take advantage will be the most decisive factor on Sunday.

2. Pressure (again, duh)

The Giants boast the best pass rush in the NFL (when healthy). They flustered Aaron Rodgers, made Alex Smith look like Alex Smith circa 2007, and were successful in chasing Tom Brady from the pocket in a victory over New England earlier this season. With apologies to Eli Manning, New York’s pass rush is its greatest asset. When the Giants were losing even though Manning was racking up gaudy numbers, it was because the defense couldn’t stop anyone. The Giants secondary is, to be fair, not very good. In the regular season, New York surrendered at least 340 yards to Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. Needless to say, the pass rush is critical to New York’s chances. If they can’t get consistent pressure on Brady and allow him to stand back there untouched, they can’t win. It’s as simple as that. Rob Gronkowski may not be at full strength (thanks to Bernard “Redcoat” Pollard), but I think it’s Aaron Hernandez that will give the Giants fits. Where Gronkowski is a big, physical threat down the middle of the field, Hernandez can line up anywhere and do anything. Corey Webster is New York’s best cover corner, and he can’t cover Wes Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez all at once. That means the Giants will need to help out their secondary by dropping more linebackers in coverage or hope they can generate enough pressure from the front four to force New England to keep an extra back or tight end in for protection.

Let’s not forget about the Patriots. While their pass rush isn’t as celebrated as New York’s, it’s been nearly as effective in the playoffs. Against Denver, New England registered five sacks and then added another three against Baltimore. Vince Wilfork terrorized Joe Flacco in the AFC Championship Game. Wilfork should have similar success against an offensive line that struggled to protect Manning two weeks ago. Although the New England secondary takes a lot of heat for being one of the worst in the NFL, they did finish 2^nd in the league in interceptions. A little heat from the Patriot pass rush could force Manning into an interception or two. Assuming, of course, the Patriots actually hang on to the football.

Either way, the defense that gets consistent pressure will have the inside track to hoisting the Lombardi trophy. (Unless of course you’re the 49ers and your punt returner fumbles twice in the final 20 minutes. Then all bets are off.)

3. Big Plays (earth-shattering news)

Fumbled punt returns. Turnovers. Dropped interceptions. Missed field goals. Osi Umenyiora slapping the ball out of the quarterback’s hand while Gregg Jennings stands alone in the end zone. Yeah, big plays matter. The smallest mistake like a punt grazing a knee changes everything. All things being equal, I think the Giants are the better, more well rounded team, especially defensively. For the Patriots to win, they must avoid backbreaking turnovers and big offensive plays by Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and the rest of the Giants offense. Or, force more turnovers and connect on more big plays than the Giants. Either way, the Patriots must have the edge.

The best way to get that edge? A hurry up offense. Even if Brady does nothing but throw four and five yard passes for the 1^st half, he has to keep the defense off balance and pray they get a little worn out. Pass rushers often get frustrated by a dink and dump offense as well, so slowing the Giants pass rush off the line certainly wouldn’t hurt, either. If the hurry up is successful, the Patriots will have opportunities deep downfield when the secondary is too flustered to call the right coverage or someone overcompensates and blows an assignment. If the hurry up is frequent AND effective, the mistakes will come.

The other wildcard is the running game. Obviously, running the football is the fastest and most effective method to slowing a pass rush. However, this is the Super Bowl. I don’t expect either team to abandon what they do best (pass the football) in order to discourage a pass rush. This is about winning a championship. You line up and do what you do best against whatever your opponent does best. Don’t change your stripes now and let the defense dictate how you play the game. Does that mean either team should completely abandon the run? Of course not, that would only make sense to Andy Reid. However, neither team can get so caught up in running the football that they forget what they do best. Your quarterbacks got you here. Give them the keys to drive you home.

The Pick

As I mentioned, I think the Giants are the better team with the hotter quarterback and better pass rush. They’ve eliminated the NFL’s best quarterback and best defense en route to the Super Bowl. Regardless, the Giants have done a little too much talking this week. I know that’s their style and it’s proven successful, but teams generally dish out smack for two reasons; overconfidence or intimidation.

Overconfidence is deadly. Enter a big game like this against an equal opponent and you’re finished. You can’t recover from overconfidence. It’s a fatal disease. Intimidation? Please. I know the Giants like to think they can rattle Brady and the Patriots, but there’s a reason New England has been the NFL’s most successful franchise year in and year out. You don’t achieve that consistency by worrying about what your opponent is doing (or saying).

I’m an Eagles fan and would take pride in the NFC East taking home another title. (And knowing Vince Young took down the champs. Holla!) However, even with three Super Bowl titles in the bag, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick need this one to cement their legacies. Contrary to what Vegas says, the Patriots are indeed underdogs. I think that’s right where they want to be. PATRIOTS If I were Charles Barkley; Patriots -3

*****

Last Week: 1 – 1 – 0
Playoffs:    7 – 3 – 0

Obviously, adding a player of Peyton Manning’s caliber is always a good idea. Considering he’s a stellar quarterback, the move makes even more sense.

As you well know, for the majority of the Andy Reid era the Eagles ran a manila offense and relied on the athleticism and skill of Donovan McNabb and Jim Johnson’s impenetrable defenses. When Reid finally built the offense to match McNabb’s talent, the Eagles went to the Superbowl. Then, Reid reverted back to midlevel receivers and relied too much on Brian Westbrook and McNabb. By the time Reid brought in elite talent again, McNabb was passed his prime. Then the Kevin Kolb era came and went in less than 30 minutes. After two years of Michael Vick, the Eagles still can’t find consistency at quarterback.

Enter Manning.

Even in his late 30’s, Manning is better than any quarterback the Eagles have had in the past five years, and maybe even ever. Manning would bring his unprecedented consistency to a position that has deeply cost the Eagles in recent seasons. More importantly, the Eagles are built for Manning.

As I’ve complained about since Terrell Owens left, the Eagles lack big, physical receivers to minimize the consequences of inaccurate quarterbacks. With Manning’s precision, the Eagles current stable of receivers is a perfect fit. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson (if re-signed) could expect precision passes and spend less time fighting for balls in the air against bigger, more physical defensive backs. Manning made a living throwing to the likes of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clarke, Brandon Stokley, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. None of whom were/are big, physical receivers. All relied heavily on speed and quickness. Furthermore, LeSean McCoy is an ideal receiving back and would provide Manning his most dynamic backfield since Egderrin James.

Most important of all, the Eagles boast the NFL’s best left tackle in Jason Peters. Michael Vick made the Eagles offensive line look a lot worse than it actually was. Vick doesn’t understand how to work and move within a pocket. He panics and makes the offensive line’s job twice as hard. Manning is probably the best pocket passer in NFL history. I’m certain the Eagles offensive line is more than adequate to protect Manning.

Even the defense is tailored to Manning’s strengths. Andy Reid and Juan Castillo built the current Eagles defense based on the assumption that they’d have leads to protect. They were right. Unfortunately, the Eagles defense couldn’t protect those leads until it was too late. As the last month of the season revealed, the Eagles pass rush needed time to adjust to the new defensive scheme. Although there’s no guarantee the unit will continue that level of play in 2012, it’s not completely crazy to expect a full season of what we saw in December from the Eagles defense. After all, Manning won plenty of division titles and even a Superbowl with a defense that relied heavily on a pass rush spearheaded by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Of course, it would be irresponsible to take on Manning without considering the unfortunate reality of his situation; one hit and Manning may never play again (if he even plays at all). Vick is still, for the most part, in his athletic prime. Manning is unquestionably on the down slope of his career. Is it really wise to mortgage a bright future with a young offense to bring in an aging legend while keeping your fingers crossed he won’t suffer a career-ending injury? The answer: yes. Here’s why.

Although Vick is younger and has more spring in his step, he puts the Eagles in the exact same position. Vick hasn’t played a full season for the Eagles yet. His style of play makes devastating hits and injuries unavoidable. Besides, if the Eagles and Vick don’t win (or at least reach) the Superbowl in 2012, the whole team is getting blown up anyway. Reid will be out. Vick would almost certainly been gone as well. It’s not as if adding Manning would scuttle some master plan the Eagles put in motion years ago. At this point, the franchise is year to year. If Manning were to play, and the Eagles were to bring him in, I’m certain he and the Eagles would ensure he’s healthy enough to play at or near the level he was at in 2010. Manning’s chances of being lost to injury are no worse than Michael Vick’s. In fact, if Manning gets a clean bill of health, I’d bet on him taking more snaps than Vick.

Also, if Eli Manning wins another Superbowl next week, what better way for Peyton to take back the Manning family crown than to pursue (and hopefully win) another Superbowl in the same division as his brother?

Of course, all this is based on the shrinking likelihood that Peyton Manning ever plays again, the somewhat probable chance he’s released by the Colts, and the minute possibility he relocates to an outdoor team in a cold city in one of the fiercest divisions in football.

But hey, one can hope.

(2) Ravens 20 at (1) Patriots 23
I was shocked by a number of things on Sunday, but none were as unexpected as Tom Brady’s off day. Sure, even the best quarterbacks don’t always have their greatest days in the postseason. Aaron Rodgers struggled last week. Ben Roethlisberger the week before. Even Brady himself has had his share of forgettable postseason performances. Sunday’s lackluster day felt different, though. Brady’s poor play was self-inflicted. He missed opened receivers, never looked comfortable in the pocket, and threw a couple of picks to top it all off. When he missed a streaking Rob Gronkowski for an easy touchdown in the 1^st quarter, you knew Brady was in for a rough afternoon. After all, Brady hasn’t missed that throw all season.

It’s not as if Brady was under intense pressure all afternoon, either. In fact, I expected more from Baltimore’s pass rush. Brady had time. His receivers were open. He just couldn’t find them. And when he did, he often missed. That’s what was most shocking. Brady typically takes advantage of opportunities. If a defense takes those opportunities away and beats him, then so be it. But for Brady to essentially defeat himself and scuttle another promising season was as unexpected as Joe Flacco’s play.

Flacco outplayed Brady. Go figure. If you’re the Ravens today, you’re killing yourself (not literally) for losing a game when Flacco outplayed perhaps the greatest postseason quarterback of all time. I’ve been as hard on Flacco as anyone. Yesterday he was great. He still missed on a few deep plays but he had the Raven offense humming in the 3rd quarter. Even on Baltimore’s final drive, with their season on the line, Flacco was poised and firing bullets. You could even argue Flacco won the game for the Ravens until Lee Evans nonchalantly allowed a defender to slap away a trip to the Superbowl. Yes, Billy Cundiff would go on to miss the game-tying field goal, but Evans’ drop was the bigger mistake.

Not only does Evans propel the Ravens to a Superbowl by hanging on, but he changes Flacco’s career, too. With a catch, Flacco finally proves he’s no phony in big games. What better way to prove one’s self than to march down the field in the final seconds of the AFC Championship game and pull out a win on the road? There is none. Flacco had successfully completed the task. He made an unbelievable throw. All he needed was Evans to hold on. Evans did, just not long enough. Instead of heading to the Superbowl a hero, Flacco’s career, for the immediate future, at least, will again be defined by what he and his team couldn’t do, even though he actually did exactly what was needed to win.

I may be alone on this, but I feel for the Ravens. I feel sorry for Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and the rest of the defense that played well enough to win. The diving 4^th quarter interception by Jimmy Smith off a tipped ball was tremendous. While the defense allowed Brady and the Patriots to move the ball consistently, they stood firm in the red zone, allowing only two touchdowns in five trips. We may never see Lewis and Reed in a game this big again. It’s sad to see them go out on account of a dropped ball and missed chip shot field goal. But that’s the way the ball bounces. Even Lewis acknowledged as much yesterday. Lewis is a great competitor and better teammate. He refused to blame his kicker. He refused to blame Evans. “There’s no one man that’s ever lost a game. We win as a team, we lose as a team,” Lewis said.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t put the Ravens in the Superbowl. Instead, they’ll have an entire offseason to dwell on that drop, that kick, and red zone failures of their own, because even though the Patriots were a lousy 2/5 in the red zone, the Ravens were a miserable 1/4. And although Evans and Cundiff made the most obvious mistakes, the Ravens let too many opportunities slip by. As a result, Tom Brady’s bad day didn’t turn into a disaster, just another shot at redemption instead.

(4) Giants 20 at (2) 49ers 17
Thankfully, the Giants and 49ers (and even the Ravens and Patriots to a degree) reminded us that defenses still matter, especially in the playoffs when referees put away their whistles and finally let football exist as the punishing sport it was created to be.

Let’s start with the quarterbacks. While neither Eli Manning nor Alex Smith played poorly, neither played great, either.

Smith made enough plays to keep the 49ers ahead or within striking distance throughout the game. However, it was painfully obvious he was in over his head as the closing minutes of the 4^th quarter approached. Even on the 49ers game-tying drive, Smith was overwhelmed. He couldn’t stop staring down Vernon Davis. I thought for sure he was going to throw the game away. Instead, Smith used his legs to gain 17 yards and rookie Kendall Hunter scampered for another 18 to put the 49ers in position for the game-tying field goal. That was it though. After that, the 49er offense disappeared completely, running 12 plays for a total of only 7 yards.

As a lifetime Eagles fan, I know what a deer-in-the-headlights quarterback looks like. Donovan McNabb perfected the look Alex Smith was sporting on Sunday. Smith couldn’t function. Three-yard outs were skipping to receivers. If his first option wasn’t available, he got happy feet and panicked. Smith continually looked to the sideline as if Steve Young was coming off the bench.

I’m not totally blaming Smith. It’s the first time he’s been in the playoffs. It was the biggest game of his career. It happens to most quarterbacks. It also didn’t help that Jerry Rice – in whatever state he’s in right now – would have outplayed the 49ers receivers on Sunday. Regardless, Smith just didn’t have that extra gear, that special sauce that turned him into Joe Montana against the Saints a week ago. You know, the special sauce that flows through Eli Manning’s veins.

Manning’s performance on Sunday was the gutsiest performance of the weekend. However, before we get to praising Manning, let’s be honest with ourselves, he was far from perfect. Manning missed a number of throws. He should have been picked off at least three times. Blame the weather, blame the 49ers relentless pass rush, blame Hakeem Nicks’ injury, blame whatever you like; it understandably wasn’t Manning’s best day.

Regardless, he made plays when necessary. He drove New York to a crucial field goal at the end of the 1^st half. His huge 3^rd down conversion after the game’s first turnover not only gave the Giants the lead, but it completely flipped momentum that had belonged to San Francisco for the entire 2^nd half to that point. Perhaps most impressive of all, though, was Manning’s resilience.

He was pummeled again and again. At times, he even looked rattled. Yet, he continued to battle. Even though he threw passes that should have been picked off, he kept slinging. He wasn’t going to stop until someone dragged him off the field or the Giants had won. Again, it wasn’t the prettiest performance of the weekend or the most impressive, but it was the gutsiest. And sometimes, when it’s cold and rainy and windy and you’re playing a punishing defense, those are the only quarterbacks that win. Eli Manning won, and that’s all that matters.

In addition to Manning’s gutsy performance, the Giants were aided by San Francisco’s inexperience. It’d be easy to point to Kyle Williams’ two fumbles as San Francisco’s only displays of inexperience, but really, the 49ers had a handful. The secondary dropped multiple interceptions. Carlos Rodgers’ drop in the 4^th was the biggest of all. While he’d like us to believe otherwise, he actually dropped that ball before his own safety laid him out, so it was 100% his fault. In addition to those drops, the offense also missed opportunities. Smith had Williams open deep for an easy touchdown but couldn’t connect. More importantly, the offense had the ball on four different occasions with the opportunity to win the game in the final minutes of regulation and overtime and failed to get a 1^st down.

In fact, I would even go as far as to blame the 49er offense over giving the Giant defense credit. Although the Giants defense did play well, the 49er offense was mostly anemic with the exception of two big scoring plays to Vernon Davis. What’s worse, San Francisco’s wide receivers combined for 1 catch for just 3 yards. The New York defense certainly played well, but they had a lot of help from Alex Smith and the San Francisco offense.

Without an exceptional performance from their defense, the 49ers may not have had a chance. The San Francisco pass rush prevented Manning from connecting on any big plays down the field. If a man was open, Manning rarely had time to find him or get off a decent throw. Although the Giants were persistent, they failed to establish a successful running game. The 49ers dictated what Manning and the Giants offense did. In fact, they may have even won the game if it weren’t for a quick whistle late in the 4^th quarter. I agree the whistle was awfully quick, but the Giants didn’t win the game there. The 49er defense again held and gave its offense yet another chance to win. Obviously, they failed to take advantage.

Essentially, the 49ers lost because Alex Smith didn’t have the playoff experience or the resilient fight of Eli Manning. Quarterbacks and defenses win in the postseason. Amazingly, neither the best quarterback nor the best defense from Sunday is moving on. Figure that one out.

Bonus input from a bitter Eagles fan:
It’s funny how little things like missed field goals impact an NFL season. The Ravens lost an opportunity at overtime in New England. The Bills would have a Superbowl title. Interestingly enough, a missed field goal on October 2^nd would later allow the Giants into the postseason and give San Francisco the 2^nd seed.

Alex Henery everyone.

That’s right, the Eagles rookie kicker failed to convert from 39 and 33 yards in the 4^th quarter against the 49ers. Philadelphia would eventually lose that game. Without that loss, the Eagles win the NFC East and the Giants are home debating Tom Coughlin’s future. Without that win, the 49ers fall behind the Saints and travel to New Orleans last weekend instead of playing host. Of course, there are a million other things that may have happened differently had Henery actually converted those field goals, but still, it’s painful to consider. If he’d have made just one, it’s not a stretch to say neither the Giants nor the 49ers would have been battling for a Superbowl berth on Sunday.

Last Week:  2 – 2 – 0
Playoffs:     5 – 3 – 0

Sunday, January 22 (3:00PM ET)

(2) Ravens at (1) Patriots
If you watched football for the first time last weekend and were asked to predict who would win the AFC Championship, you’d undoubtedly choose the New England Patriots. The Ravens struggled to beat a one-dimensional offense and Joe Flacco still plays like he’s a fourth year rookie. Even Flacco’s teammate and all-pro safety, Ed Reed admitted Flacco was flustered by Houston’s pass rush last week. Don’t worry though; Reed totally trusts Flacco and so does the rest of the defense. Or so they keep telling us.

Where there is smoke there is fire. I won’t go as far as to say the entire defense doubts Flacco’s abilities, but I’m confident at least 60% don’t trust Flacco can win a playoff game without a stellar outing from the defense. His lackluster performances in big games back that up. Even worse, he cries about not getting respect. As Sean Connery said in The Rock, “Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and love the prom queen.” Ok, so that’s the PG version, but you get the idea. Winners don’t whine. They succeed. Joe Flacco whines. Enough said.

As you’ve probably noticed by now, the coverage surrounding this game has focused on a premiere offense led by an all time great quarterback battling a premiere defense anchored by perhaps the greatest linebacker ever to play. It’s true, Tom Brady is that good. And Ray Lewis was that good and is still a very capable player. But let’s be clear, the Raven defense isn’t nearly as good as they’d like us to believe.

To be fair, the Raven defense ranked 3^rd in total defense this season behind only Pittsburgh and Houston. They also finished 3^rd in scoring defense. I watched the Ravens several times this season. Like everyone else, I was impressed by their defense. However, I noticed one thing was missing… a challenge.

The Ravens schedule featured the Chuck E Cheese degree of difficulty when it came to opposing offenses. Baltimore played the AFC South, AFC North and NFC West this year. Name one elite offense in that group. You can’t. That’s because there were none.

In fact, Baltimore played only one of the NFL’s top ten ranked offenses, the San Diego Chargers. Outside of the Chargers, Baltimore battled the 12^th, 13^th, 17^th, 19^th, 20^th 25^th, 26^th, 28^th, 29^th, 30^th, 31^st and 32^nd ranked offenses. WHOOOFFF. For those keeping score, that’s seven of the eight worst offenses in the NFL. Including the Chargers (6^th), Texans (13^th) and Steelers (12^th), the Ravens faced an offense ranked in the top half of the NFL only four times. This just in: The Patriots have a pretty good offense. The NFL’s 2^nd ranked, to be precise.

Also, in case you’re wondering, against the Chargers Baltimore surrendered 34 points, 415 yards, forced no turnovers and registered zero sacks. Did I mention many considered this a down year for Philip Rivers? Imagine what Tom Brady could accomplish against this Baltimore defense.

Of course, this is the conference championship. The Ravens have won plenty of playoff games on the road. They’re built to get after the quarterback and force turnovers. They thrive on being written off and left for dead. Most importantly, they know exactly what it takes to defeat the Patriots at home in the playoffs.

Still, at the very least, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs are going to need some offense from the underwhelming Joe Flacco to even have a shot at knocking off the Patriots. Yes, Baltimore’s defense is still one of the NFL’s best, but that ranking came at the expense of the NFL’s worst. PATRIOTS If I were Charles Barkley; Patriots -7

Sunday, January 22 (6:30PM ET)

(4) Giants at (2) 49ers
Forgive me if I have nothing sensible to offer in regards to this contest. I’m still reeling from Aaron Rodgers’ Tony Romoish performance. I know this much; I’m excited to watch because I haven’t the slightest clue who will win.

Let’s argue the Giants case first. The Giants have that swagger. You know, that “we shouldn’t be here but you let us in and now we’re going to steal the whole thing,” swagger. It’s the same swagger the Green Bay Packers rode to a title last year. It’s the same swagger the St. Louis Cardinals used to win the World Series this past fall. Talent is scary. Momentum is terrifying.

Don’t be fooled, though, the Giants are more than a bad team riding high. Eli Manning is at the top of his game. He’s been in playoff mode for a month and hasn’t blinked. Last week, he outplayed whom I consider (I guess “considered” is more appropriate) the ultimate playoff quarterback in Rodgers. Although Manning’s faces would make you believe otherwise, the man does not get flustered. He’s responded to every situation put before him since the Giants collapsed to the Redskins. Let’s also not forget the Giants resurgent running game and the stellar play of Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.

In addition to a very good offense and unflappable quarterback, the Giants owe their playoff success to a defense that has rallied from a forgettable regular season. In the Divisional Round against Green Bay, the Giants limited one of the NFL’s most potent offenses to a mere 13 points before a garbage time touchdown pushed the score to 20. Although the Packers had more first downs and ran more plays, the Giant defense made plays at the most critical times to keep the Packers off the scoreboard. Of course, it didn’t hurt that the Packers continually killed themselves with careless turnovers, poor throws/routes, and dropped passes. Regardless, the Giants are the most impressive and intimidating defense remaining in the postseason because they’ve proven they can beat the best.

I like the Giants. However, this is all weirdly similar to the Eagles run in the 2008 postseason. If you recall, the Eagles slipped in on the final day of the season. After knocking off Minnesota, the Eagles went into the Meadowlands and eliminated the Giants, the team many believed would repeat as Superbowl champions. Heading into the NFC Championship, the Eagles were the popular pick to knock off the equally surprising Arizona Cardinals and advance to the Superbowl. Only, they didn’t. The Cardinals won. Take a look at the Giants road – Got in on the final day of the season. Knocked off the favorites to repeat as NFL champs in the Divisional Round. Now traveling to face equally surprising NFC West champion. – It’s hardly a sure thing, but history tends to repeat itself in these situations.

The 49ers have plenty working in their favor as well. Obviously, Jim Harbaugh has his guys playing like the league tried to wipe the franchise off the map or something. Although a few of New Orleans’ turnovers were self-inflicted, San Francisco was there to take advantage and always made a big play when the Saints took back momentum. Teams consisting of mostly playoff newbies don’t usually have that kind of relentlessness. Credit Harbaugh for that.

Furthermore, the 49ers have a great defense. One thing Eli Manning hasn’t faced over the past month is a great defense. Will he still find Nicks and Cruz for big plays as he’s done so consistently? More importantly, will he have enough time to find his playmakers? Without a consistent and successful running game, the answer is no. This is the 49ers greatest advantage. San Francisco led the NFL in rush defense by well over 200 yards. They just don’t force offenses to be one-dimensional. They bully them into it.

On the other hand, where as the Giants have a good offense, the 49ers have a question mark. Even in last week’s big win, Alex Smith and the offense disappeared for nearly 2½ quarters. That’s a lot of pressure to put on a defense. Obviously, the 49er defense was up to the task against the Saints for much of that 2^nd half, but once the Saints found their stride, the defense was helpless. If it comes to that again, can we expect a similar Montana-esque performance from Smith?

As I said earlier, I have no idea what will happen. I think I like the Giants. However, I hate when the home team is the public underdog. A home crowd and a united “us against the world” mentality are two very powerful forces. I was wrong when I picked Drew Brees over Alex Smith last week. I was also wrong when I picked Aaron Rodgers over Eli Manning. As much as I loved what I saw from Smith last week, I still don’t trust him or the rest of his offense. GIANTS If I were Charles Barkley; Giants +2.5

*****

Last Week: 2 – 2 – 0
Playoffs:    6 – 2 – 0

(3) Texans 13 at (2) Ravens 20
Early last week I went through the remaining eight teams in the NFL playoffs. If you missed it, I boldly anointed the Houston Texans Superbowl champions … IF … they had their starting quarterback, Matt Schaub. Sunday’s events confirmed that declaration.

The Texans dominated Sunday. Anything the Ravens were able to accomplish offensively was given to them courtesy of Houston’s four turnovers. Jacoby Jones’ boneheaded fumble early in the 1^st quarter was especially devastating. Yes, TJ Yates’ three interceptions cannot be overlooked, but no one expected a rookie quarterback to walk into Baltimore and play a perfect game. Jones is a veteran special teamer. His decision to take that punt off a bounce with a defender closing in was inexcusable.

What’s worse, prior to that fumble the Texans successfully drove to the Baltimore 21 on the game’s first possession for a field goal. The Houston defense then forced a three-and-out. The crowd was quiet. Momentum belonged to the Texans. That turnover changed everything. If it weren’t for a dominant 2^nd quarter by Arian Foster, the Texans may never have had a chance.

Foster and a merciless pass rush proved why the Texans would have been the most complete team in the playoff field with a healthy Schaub. Foster gashed the Baltimore defense for close to 90 rushing yards in the 2^nd quarter alone. When the Ravens adjusted in the 2^nd half to contain Foster, big plays were available in the passing game. Though Yates couldn’t take advantage of those opportunities, Schaub no doubt would have.

Furthermore, the Houston defense proved they belong among the elite defenses in the NFL. The pass rush kept Joe Flacco out of sync all afternoon and the Texans front seven bottled up Ray Rice to the tune of 60 yards on 21 attempts – a lousy 2.9 yards per rush. As a unit, the Ravens offense was limited to just 227 total yards. Again, a stellar defense and an unstoppable running game paired with a healthy Matt Schaub would have propelled Houston to the Superbowl. I’m not sure I could be convinced otherwise.

As for the Ravens, I’m not sure I’ve seen a team perform so poorly and still advance. Baltimore was both bad and ugly on Sunday. While the defense “forced” four turnovers by taking advantage of a deer-in-headlights rookie quarterback, they were bullied at the line of scrimmage. With Tom Brady on the horizon, the Ravens can’t be encouraged by their performance against the shorthanded Texans.

More importantly, Flacco must improve dramatically to even give his defense a chance. We always talk about guys that excel in big game situations. Guys that have the “it” factor. Guys like Eli Manning or Tom Brady. Well, at this point, despite a playoff win in each of his four NFL seasons, Flacco clearly doesn’t have “it.” Although New England’s defense isn’t near the level of Houston’s, they’ll no doubt be at the top of their game Sunday. If Baltimore doesn’t get any improvement out of Flacco, they’ll find themselves on the short end of Sunday’s score.

Finally, let’s credit the Patriots for being the weekend’s big winners. Amazingly, the Patriots could advance to the big game by beating Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco – two quarterbacks that combined to throw for 4,339 yards, 32 TDs and 18 INTs at a completion rate of 53.7%. (Brady’s numbers: 5,235 yards, 39 TDs, 12 INTS, 65.6% completions.) With Peyton Manning injured and Philip Rivers suffering through an off year, the AFC lacked elite quarterback play. Still, a road to the Superbowl that goes through Tebow and Flacco is the draw of a lifetime. Maybe this is just the Patriots year.

(4) Giants 37 at (1) Packers 20
It’s never ideal to play your worst in the biggest game of the year. Unfortunately, the Packers did just that, somehow topping their ugly outing against the Kansas City Chiefs last month. First off, I owe a half-hearted apology to my brother, who warned me the Packers chronic case of the dropsies combined with the New York pass rush could spell disaster for the Pack. Although he didn’t pick the Giants to win, he was right.

I knew the Packers had issues with dropped passes. It killed my fantasy team all season. I also knew the Giants pass rush was a force. I just didn’t expect Aaron Rodgers to play like Joe Flacco. Nor did I expect the Green Bay defense to fold like Asante Samuel in the open field. What an all-around embarrassing day for the Packers. Unfortunately, they didn’t have the fortuity of facing TJ Yates instead of Eli Manning.

Speaking of Manning, I’d also like to formally apologize for criticizing his preseason declaration that he belonged in the same conversation as Brady, Brees and his brother, Peyton. In fact, we’re two wins away from possibly restructuring the Manning family pecking order. Does Eli pass Peyton with a second title? Maybe not on a skill or statistical level but certainly in the “played his best when it mattered” category. Peyton often struggled in the postseason. Eli has excelled, especially this year. Of course, it helps when you play the NFC North – the only division in football that can’t figure out how to defend the Hail Mary. Sure, it happened early enough in the game for Green Bay to recover, but heading into the half down 10 is significantly more daunting than trailing by three.

The Hail Mary wasn’t even the worst of the Packers first half debacle. No, the failed onside kick was. While it didn’t hurt Green Bay on the scoreboard, it showed weakness. It showed fear. Onside kicks in those situations are for the desperate underdogs; the team that knows it needs something extra to gain an advantage. The Packers were the hands-down favorite to repeat as champions and playing at home, no less. The onside kick proved something wasn’t right. I’m almost certain the Giants gained confidence just because the Packers made the attempt. They smelt blood in the water. Champions don’t resort to desperate acts. The Packers did. The Giants were more poised, more confident, and executed flawlessly. Green Bay grew frustrated, committed stupid mistakes, and missed plenty of opportunities to either tie or take the lead throughout the afternoon. Even Joe Cool aka Aaron Rodgers started panicking.

Credit the Giant defense for the win. The pass rush kept Rodgers under pressure and the secondary played its best game against the NFL’s best passing attack. Combine that effort with another successful running day (something I didn’t think the Giants could do) and Hakeem Nicks’ second monster performance in as many playoff games, and you have the formula for the Giants domination from start to finish.

New York exacted revenge on Green Bay after a loss in the regular season. They’ll have the opportunity to do the same in San Francisco. This time, though, a better defense and a lights-out Eli Manning await Alex Smith and the 49ers.

(3) Saints 32 at (2) 49ers 36
For most of Saturday afternoon, the 49ers refused to take control of a game the Saints continually tried to give away. For whatever reason – time zone change, poor preparation, over confidence – the Saints could not have played a worse 1^st quarter, committing three turnovers and falling behind 14-0. San Francisco’s lead expanded to 17 before New Orleans finally woke up and closed the gap to 17-14 at the half despite a fourth turnover.

The 3^rd quarter was the calm before the storm. Aside from a 49ers field goal courtesy of yet another New Orleans turnover, nothing happened. Six possessions. Four punts. Three points. Like I said, nothing happened. That trend continued into the 4^th quarter as the teams traded field goals. Then, with about five minutes remaining and the 49ers leading 23-17, all hell broke loose.

Saints: 9 plays, 79 yards, Touchdown.
49ers: 6 plays, 85 yards, Touchdown.
Saints: 4 plays, 88 yards, Touchdown.
49ers: 7 plays, 85 yards, Touchdown.
Game Over.

So we’re clear, the 49ers were quarterbacked by Alex Smith. Not Joe Montana, Steve Young, or even Jeff Garcia. Alex Smith. Obviously, the Saints have been known to score in bunches, especially in big moments, so their outburst wasn’t as shocking. But the 49ers? This 49er team? Unreal.

Let’s start with the Saints traveling to the West Coast to take on the NFC West champion and losing as the favored team for the second straight season. There is a lot of blame to go around for this one and the offense deserves most of it. Sure, the defense was atrocious in those final minutes. They made Alex Smith look like Aaron Rodgers. In fairness, though, Smith and the 49er offense had done nothing since the 1^st Quarter, so it’s possible the New Orleans defense had fallen asleep. Regardless, you can’t turn the ball over five times and blame your defense for losing a playoff game. The Saints were uncharacteristically sloppy and careless throughout the 1^st half. You can credit the impotence of the 49er offense or the Saints defense for keeping New Orleans in the game after those turnovers. Either way, the Saints were lucky to even have a chance at winning.

Enough about the Saints. Today belonged to Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh has shown all season that he has the guts to go all in and make decisions other coaches would shy away from. On a crucial 3^rd and 7 late in the 4^th quarter, Harbaugh called a naked bootleg that went 28 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. I think FOX’s announcers did Harbaugh a disservice for not acknowledging what a gutsy call that was.

After the Saints took back the lead and Smith again led the 49ers into field goal range, Harbaugh continued to press toward the goal line. How many coaches would get conservative in that scenario and play for overtime? Not Harbaugh. Even with the unproven and playoff rookie Smith under center, Harbaugh attacked the Saints defense looking to win the game instead of settling for a tie and overtime.

All season Harbaugh has told anyone that would listen how much he trusted Alex Smith. I just assumed it was coach talk to keep his quarterback’s confidence up. Apparently, I was wrong because you don’t put your season in the hands of your quarterback like Harbaugh did today unless you absolutely trust him. Harbaugh’s shtick isn’t just an act. He’s as fearless and bold as he appears.

The unquestionable highlight of Saturday was seeing the 49er players react to such an emotional victory. I don’t usually appreciate rubbing noses in defeat, but Alex Smith jabbing to the Saints (who were taunting him all afternoon) was tremendous. For a career underachiever to step up in the biggest moment and outduel perhaps the NFL’s top quarterback was just awesome. He unleashed eight years of disappointment on that Saints defense after the winning touchdown. Good for him.

Even better was Vernon Davis’ tearful celebration with Harbaugh. Being a part of a losing franchise takes a toll on players. We’ve seen it happen so many times to talented athletes. Watching a terrific player like Davis get over that hump in such dramatic fashion is why we love sports. It’s why we watch.

Davis was criticized as an immature diva before his notorious sideline confrontation with former coach Mike Singletary. Singletary sent Davis to the locker room that day and since then Davis has been a leader and difference maker for the 49er franchise. Just like Smith’s outburst, Davis’ tears were years of failure, disappointment, and frustration pouring out. I’m sure they were also tears of gratitude for Harbaugh, who has now taken a team many wrote off before the season to the Conference Championship game. Did you happen to notice what Harbaugh said to Davis as he exited the field with tears flowing down his face? “You f—in’ did this s–t.”

Harbaugh gave this team of underachievers confidence and in one season transformed them into division champions and title contenders. You can’t say enough about him. Great team. Great win. Even better coach.

(4) Broncos 10 at (1) Patriots 45
There really isn’t a whole lot to say. The Broncos were overmatched from the get-go. A Tom Brady interception made it interesting for a brief 10-minute stretch, but that was about it. As I mentioned last week, this was a desperation game for Brady and the Patriots and they played like it. While it was only one win over a significantly lesser opponent, it was the most dominating win of the postseason thus far. It was also New England’s biggest win since the AFC title game four years ago.

Although it’s a little unfortunate to lose the Tim Tebow storyline, you always want the best teams with the best players competing for the championship. The Patriots are clearly one of those teams and Brady is the NFL’s version of Kobe Bryant – a fierce competitor who wants to win and nothing else (well, and promote Uggs, too).

Also, big congratulations to the United States of America. Protecting the sanctity of broadcasting commercials is a thankless task, but it’s nice to see so many people outraged by Focus on the Family’s John 3:16 commercial. I mean, whenever you have children quoting Bible versus on National TV instead of advertisements promoting sex, extramarital affairs, booze, and women’s lingerie; you have to lash out. I will sleep comfortably at night knowing there are people out there that truly care about what my kid sees on television. I don’t know what I would have done had he been awake to see that appalling and threatening commercial. Thanks again, America.