[Editor’s Note: We welcome other voices from time to time. As one of America's most popular sports, it seemed appropriate (and necessary) to bring the slick track, burning rubber, and shiny cars to 4thanddone.com. Since I know very little about racing, I asked... ok, I begged, pleaded and dragged in ...an expert.

Over the next few weeks, and hopefully throughout the NASCAR season, my cousin, Wayne, will be bringing racing insight to ignorant dopes such as myself. While I've rarely watched NASCAR, I've always followed from a distance. This year, with Wayne's updates and analysis, I may even pick a favorite driver. Vroom, vroom.]

The 2011 Chase featured exactly what its creators dreamed of when they introduced the “playoff” format in 2004: competition down to the wire.  In seasons previous to 2004 the champion who clinched with two or three races to go would have the rest of the season as a victory tour.  1992 was the closest points battle in pre-Chase history and is still remembered for its extreme intensity up to the final lap.  I was seven years old and a die-hard Bill Elliott fan at the time.  The pain of seeing my driver win the race but still lose the championship by 10 points would only be eclipsed a year later by Joe Carter and a pretty famous walk-off home run.

Back to 2011: After 9 months, 36 races, and thousands of laps, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards were tied (yes, TIED) atop the series’ points standings.  A tiebreaker determined the outcome of the series championship for the first time in NASCAR history and Tony Stewart’s five wins secured the title.  Coming off such an exciting finale, what can we expect for the upcoming season?

1. Will Tony Stewart’s performance in the 2011 Chase translate into momentum this year?

Watching the Chase finale at Homestead, I saw something I haven’t seen since the prime of the late Dale Earnhardt’s career: A driver willing his car to a win.  [I once watched Dale Sr. crash at Talladega, all but eliminating him from competition only to see him come back with half a car and run with the leaders.  The announcers would even remark that if he won, NASCAR would have to determine whether he had an advantage with the damage.]

No disrespect to Darian Grubb or anyone at Stewart-Haas racing, but that car had no business winning that race.  Edwards had the superior equipment, qualified better, led more laps, had a higher driver rating [if you put any stock into that system], and looked to be on his way to his first championship.  But Tony Stewart had other ideas.  Part of any sport is the mentality that nothing will stop you.  [See Timothy Richard Tebow.]  Leading up to the final race, Stewart made no bones about what he was there to do… and he did it in grand fashion.

So back to the question about whether any of this will have an effect on 2012.  We haven’t heard a whole lot from Tony this offseason, but if his past performance is any indication, I’d say No.  In 2003 during his first title defense, the year was a bit of a letdown as he finished 7th in points.  Same goes for 2006, while defending his second title, Stewart had his worst season as a Cup driver.  I won’t go as far as saying it will be like 2006, but I think a repeat of 2011 is also highly unlikely.  Adding to that, his courtship of Danica Patrick [no not literally] and the media tsunami that comes with it, as well as striving to get Ryan Newman back on track may prove to be too much to also have a championship caliber 2012 for himself.

Indeed. Eli Manning is every bit as good the three aforementioned quarterbacks and undoubtedly the best of the group when push comes to shove in the 4^th quarter of a big game. That’s right, if you find yourself in a tight game trailing in the final minutes, then Eli Manning is your best option. I never thought I would type that sentence, but it’s true. Get used to it.

Once again, the New England Patriots couldn’t hold onto a lead late in the 4^th quarter against the Giants to bring home the Vince Lombardi trophy. Naturally, the blame has been divided and dished out appropriately. The real culprit, though, and the gift that kept the Giants season alive? Second chances.

In week 14, the Dallas Cowboys held a 12 point lead with 5:41 remaining. A win would have presumably laid the Giants to rest once and for all. Tom Coughlin was on the hot seat and a defense that delivered a title just a few years earlier was rapidly falling out of favor. That was until Eli Manning took it upon himself to rally the Giants, save their season and possibly even Coughlin’s job. The Giants went on to win four of their next five including a Wildcard round victory and a stunning upset over the Super Bowl favorite Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

After knocking off the Packers, the Giants again found themselves in a tight game with their season on the line. This time, though, Eli Manning and the Giant offense struggled to break through a vaunted San Francisco defense. With the score tied at 17, the Giants and 49ers traded possessions for the final minutes of regulation and into overtime. The 49er defense kept Manning at bay while the 49er offense curled into a ball and hid, failing miserably on five opportunities to win the game following Akers’ tying field goal. The San Francisco offense registered only one first down in those possessions and never came close to delivering the knockout blow. As a result, the Giants and Eli Manning hung around and eventually took advantage of another 49er miscue to finally win a game the 49er defense had dominated.

Last night, in Super Bowl XLVI, the Patriots were in a similar position. Up two with four minutes remaining and the chance to stretch the lead to five or nine or run out the remaining clock entirely, New England choked. On 2^nd and 11 from the Giants 44 with a reasonable field goal attempt just ten yards away, Tom Brady and a wide open Wes Welker failed to connect for a first down inside the Giants 20. On 3^rd and 11, Brady and Deion Branch couldn’t come through for a first down. Eli Manning and the Giants, for the third time in the previous two months, avoided the kill shot and were presented a second chance, and for the third time, they took full advantage.

Eli Manning calmly marched down the field like it was the 2^nd quarter of a September game. Only the urgency in Al Michaels’ voice and the petrified faces on the New England sideline indicated the magnitude of those moments. Manning didn’t care. He shrugged off the pressure and stole another Super Bowl from Bill Belichick and the Patriots, all because he and his Giant teammates were given too many second chances. While second chances offer redemption, they also forfeit victories. The Cowboys, 49ers, and Patriots left the door open. Eli Manning and the Giants walked through it. Now, they’re Super Bowl champions for the second time in four years.

(Tangent: Let me first say that I believe Justin Tuck meant no disrespect to Eli Manning. Considering Tuck was the first player Eli Manning hugged, I’m assuming they’re friends. However, I heard Justin Tuck on two separate post game shows mention that although Eli Manning won MVP, it could have gone to any member of the Giants 53 man roster. He even insinuated Eli won it because he was the quarterback.

While Manning would undoubtedly agree with Tuck’s assessment, Manning was clearly the Giants best player. He deserved sole possession of the MVP award. He didn’t win it because he was the quarterback (though I’m sure it didn’t hurt.) He won the prestigious award because without him, without the ice flowing through his veins, without his resiliency, without his uncanny ability to elevate his play in the biggest moments, the Giants don’t win that game. Eli Manning won the MVP because he was the best and most important one of those 53 players.)

Brady Falls Again.

The saddest part of Sunday’s outcome is that Tom Brady will be blamed for another Super Bowl loss even though he played well enough to win. In fact, I thought he outplayed Manning up until those closing minutes.

Instead, we’ll remember the intentional grounding; underthrowing Rob Gronkowski for an interception; the poor throw to Welker; the miscommunication with Branch; and another devastating sack on the final drive – reminiscent to the one he took on the final drive in Super Bowl XLII – as his defining moments. In fact, let’s look at each one.

The intentional grounding was a huge swing. It gave the Giant defense momentum and confidence from the outset. More importantly, those two points ultimately changed the whole dynamic of those final minutes. Without the safety, the Patriots hold a four point lead and the Giants are forced to score a touchdown on that final drive. Even if New York did find the end zone, the Patriots would only need a field goal to tie instead of the always difficult and nearly impossible “80 yard touchdown drive in less than a minute with only one timeout.”

The 4^th quarter interception was the game’s lone turnover, and while it didn’t result in points, it stalled the momentum New England had controlled for the entire 2^nd half. I don’t blame Brady for the throw. If you have an all-world, 6-7 tight end matched up against a linebacker one-on-one, you take that chance. Although Gronkowski was hobbled by injury, I think Brady, and every other NFL QB, would still take the same chance. Besides, the biggest mistake on that play was made by Gronkowski. Too often NFL receivers hang back and think about scoring over making the catch. DeSean Jackson does this all the time. At the very least, Gronkowski should have pulled Chase Blackburn to the ground and taken a penalty. Your quarterback is trusting you in that situation to make a play or at least prevent a turnover. Gronkowski was boxed out by a shorter, less athletic linebacker and was shoved off the ball with one arm. Obviously, it was not his finest moment.

I’m ok with Brady catching some flack for the Welker throw. Yes, Welker should have made the catch, but a better throw would have made Welker’s job significantly easier. It looked like one of those deals where the receiver expected the ball to be coming over one shoulder and the quarterback threw it over the other. It happened to Aaron Rodgers and Gregg Jennings three weeks ago. It happens to everyone. However, if Welker hangs on, the Patriots at least kick a field goal. If Brady makes a better throw, Welker possibly scores.

The Deion Branch failed 3^rd down conversion right after the Welker drop was, in my opinion, entirely Branch’s fault. Instead of settling down in the open area between the safety and linebacker, Branch continued across the field. Brady thought the veteran Branch would make the veteran move and sit between the defenders. He didn’t and that’s why Brady’s throw looked like it was thrown behind the open receiver. Such a devastating mistake on a play that could have ultimately clinched a Super Bowl title.

The sack on the final drive was as disappointing as the drive itself. I would have loved to see Brady win the game there and essentially reverse the script of Super Bowl XLII. Sadly, Brady looked dejected even as he walked onto the field. Missing an open Branch on the first play was huge. A completion there puts the Patriots at midfield and, considering Branch probably gets out of bounds, 45 seconds would still be on the clock with a timeout in hand. Another reception or two and it’s possible the Patriots get at least three shots at the end zone from inside the 25. Instead, the pass goes incomplete, Brady then throws a pass in the middle of the field to Aaron Hernandez that was dropped and then takes the sack on 3^rd down. Looking at the replay, there was little Brady could do to avoid the sack aside from another intentional grounding penalty. Still, the sack and the completion in the middle of the field two plays later were un-Brady-like. If you go over the middle with no timeouts, it has to be for a decent chunk of yardage.

As backwards as this sounds, I thought Brady played well enough to win. He just didn’t make enough plays to win. Eli Manning did, just as he has throughout the past two months. And with two Super Bowl titles and two Super Bowl MVP awards, I think it’s safe to say Eli was right along; he is in the same class as Brady and Peyton. He just knew it before anyone else.

Last Week:  2 – 0 – 0
Playoffs:     7 – 3 – 0

Sunday, February 5 (6:29PM ET)

1. Quarterbacks (duh)

I know, I know, it’s the most obvious factor of all, but I couldn’t ignore it.

Neither quarterback played exceptionally well in the conference championship round. In fact, if the 49ers secondary could catch, we’d probably be discussing Alex Smith’s unbelievable turnaround. But we’re not. Instead, we’re dissecting Tom Brady’s lackluster play and the grittiest performance of Eli Manning’s career.

With optimal conditions and two weeks of preparation and rest, I don’t expect another lousy performance from either quarterback. However, both Manning, and especially, Brady are susceptible to turnovers. Brady’s thrown multiple interceptions in two of his last four playoff appearances. Again, Manning would have been lucky to escape San Francisco with two interceptions and somehow he left with none. Both quarterbacks take risks and trust their receivers to bail them out. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s often what makes great quarterbacks great. But how many mistakes each quarterback makes and whether or not the defenses can take advantage will be the most decisive factor on Sunday.

2. Pressure (again, duh)

The Giants boast the best pass rush in the NFL (when healthy). They flustered Aaron Rodgers, made Alex Smith look like Alex Smith circa 2007, and were successful in chasing Tom Brady from the pocket in a victory over New England earlier this season. With apologies to Eli Manning, New York’s pass rush is its greatest asset. When the Giants were losing even though Manning was racking up gaudy numbers, it was because the defense couldn’t stop anyone. The Giants secondary is, to be fair, not very good. In the regular season, New York surrendered at least 340 yards to Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. Needless to say, the pass rush is critical to New York’s chances. If they can’t get consistent pressure on Brady and allow him to stand back there untouched, they can’t win. It’s as simple as that. Rob Gronkowski may not be at full strength (thanks to Bernard “Redcoat” Pollard), but I think it’s Aaron Hernandez that will give the Giants fits. Where Gronkowski is a big, physical threat down the middle of the field, Hernandez can line up anywhere and do anything. Corey Webster is New York’s best cover corner, and he can’t cover Wes Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez all at once. That means the Giants will need to help out their secondary by dropping more linebackers in coverage or hope they can generate enough pressure from the front four to force New England to keep an extra back or tight end in for protection.

Let’s not forget about the Patriots. While their pass rush isn’t as celebrated as New York’s, it’s been nearly as effective in the playoffs. Against Denver, New England registered five sacks and then added another three against Baltimore. Vince Wilfork terrorized Joe Flacco in the AFC Championship Game. Wilfork should have similar success against an offensive line that struggled to protect Manning two weeks ago. Although the New England secondary takes a lot of heat for being one of the worst in the NFL, they did finish 2^nd in the league in interceptions. A little heat from the Patriot pass rush could force Manning into an interception or two. Assuming, of course, the Patriots actually hang on to the football.

Either way, the defense that gets consistent pressure will have the inside track to hoisting the Lombardi trophy. (Unless of course you’re the 49ers and your punt returner fumbles twice in the final 20 minutes. Then all bets are off.)

3. Big Plays (earth-shattering news)

Fumbled punt returns. Turnovers. Dropped interceptions. Missed field goals. Osi Umenyiora slapping the ball out of the quarterback’s hand while Gregg Jennings stands alone in the end zone. Yeah, big plays matter. The smallest mistake like a punt grazing a knee changes everything. All things being equal, I think the Giants are the better, more well rounded team, especially defensively. For the Patriots to win, they must avoid backbreaking turnovers and big offensive plays by Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and the rest of the Giants offense. Or, force more turnovers and connect on more big plays than the Giants. Either way, the Patriots must have the edge.

The best way to get that edge? A hurry up offense. Even if Brady does nothing but throw four and five yard passes for the 1^st half, he has to keep the defense off balance and pray they get a little worn out. Pass rushers often get frustrated by a dink and dump offense as well, so slowing the Giants pass rush off the line certainly wouldn’t hurt, either. If the hurry up is successful, the Patriots will have opportunities deep downfield when the secondary is too flustered to call the right coverage or someone overcompensates and blows an assignment. If the hurry up is frequent AND effective, the mistakes will come.

The other wildcard is the running game. Obviously, running the football is the fastest and most effective method to slowing a pass rush. However, this is the Super Bowl. I don’t expect either team to abandon what they do best (pass the football) in order to discourage a pass rush. This is about winning a championship. You line up and do what you do best against whatever your opponent does best. Don’t change your stripes now and let the defense dictate how you play the game. Does that mean either team should completely abandon the run? Of course not, that would only make sense to Andy Reid. However, neither team can get so caught up in running the football that they forget what they do best. Your quarterbacks got you here. Give them the keys to drive you home.

The Pick

As I mentioned, I think the Giants are the better team with the hotter quarterback and better pass rush. They’ve eliminated the NFL’s best quarterback and best defense en route to the Super Bowl. Regardless, the Giants have done a little too much talking this week. I know that’s their style and it’s proven successful, but teams generally dish out smack for two reasons; overconfidence or intimidation.

Overconfidence is deadly. Enter a big game like this against an equal opponent and you’re finished. You can’t recover from overconfidence. It’s a fatal disease. Intimidation? Please. I know the Giants like to think they can rattle Brady and the Patriots, but there’s a reason New England has been the NFL’s most successful franchise year in and year out. You don’t achieve that consistency by worrying about what your opponent is doing (or saying).

I’m an Eagles fan and would take pride in the NFC East taking home another title. (And knowing Vince Young took down the champs. Holla!) However, even with three Super Bowl titles in the bag, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick need this one to cement their legacies. Contrary to what Vegas says, the Patriots are indeed underdogs. I think that’s right where they want to be. PATRIOTS If I were Charles Barkley; Patriots -3

*****

Last Week: 1 – 1 – 0
Playoffs:    7 – 3 – 0

Obviously, adding a player of Peyton Manning’s caliber is always a good idea. Considering he’s a stellar quarterback, the move makes even more sense.

As you well know, for the majority of the Andy Reid era the Eagles ran a manila offense and relied on the athleticism and skill of Donovan McNabb and Jim Johnson’s impenetrable defenses. When Reid finally built the offense to match McNabb’s talent, the Eagles went to the Superbowl. Then, Reid reverted back to midlevel receivers and relied too much on Brian Westbrook and McNabb. By the time Reid brought in elite talent again, McNabb was passed his prime. Then the Kevin Kolb era came and went in less than 30 minutes. After two years of Michael Vick, the Eagles still can’t find consistency at quarterback.

Enter Manning.

Even in his late 30’s, Manning is better than any quarterback the Eagles have had in the past five years, and maybe even ever. Manning would bring his unprecedented consistency to a position that has deeply cost the Eagles in recent seasons. More importantly, the Eagles are built for Manning.

As I’ve complained about since Terrell Owens left, the Eagles lack big, physical receivers to minimize the consequences of inaccurate quarterbacks. With Manning’s precision, the Eagles current stable of receivers is a perfect fit. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson (if re-signed) could expect precision passes and spend less time fighting for balls in the air against bigger, more physical defensive backs. Manning made a living throwing to the likes of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clarke, Brandon Stokley, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. None of whom were/are big, physical receivers. All relied heavily on speed and quickness. Furthermore, LeSean McCoy is an ideal receiving back and would provide Manning his most dynamic backfield since Egderrin James.

Most important of all, the Eagles boast the NFL’s best left tackle in Jason Peters. Michael Vick made the Eagles offensive line look a lot worse than it actually was. Vick doesn’t understand how to work and move within a pocket. He panics and makes the offensive line’s job twice as hard. Manning is probably the best pocket passer in NFL history. I’m certain the Eagles offensive line is more than adequate to protect Manning.

Even the defense is tailored to Manning’s strengths. Andy Reid and Juan Castillo built the current Eagles defense based on the assumption that they’d have leads to protect. They were right. Unfortunately, the Eagles defense couldn’t protect those leads until it was too late. As the last month of the season revealed, the Eagles pass rush needed time to adjust to the new defensive scheme. Although there’s no guarantee the unit will continue that level of play in 2012, it’s not completely crazy to expect a full season of what we saw in December from the Eagles defense. After all, Manning won plenty of division titles and even a Superbowl with a defense that relied heavily on a pass rush spearheaded by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Of course, it would be irresponsible to take on Manning without considering the unfortunate reality of his situation; one hit and Manning may never play again (if he even plays at all). Vick is still, for the most part, in his athletic prime. Manning is unquestionably on the down slope of his career. Is it really wise to mortgage a bright future with a young offense to bring in an aging legend while keeping your fingers crossed he won’t suffer a career-ending injury? The answer: yes. Here’s why.

Although Vick is younger and has more spring in his step, he puts the Eagles in the exact same position. Vick hasn’t played a full season for the Eagles yet. His style of play makes devastating hits and injuries unavoidable. Besides, if the Eagles and Vick don’t win (or at least reach) the Superbowl in 2012, the whole team is getting blown up anyway. Reid will be out. Vick would almost certainly been gone as well. It’s not as if adding Manning would scuttle some master plan the Eagles put in motion years ago. At this point, the franchise is year to year. If Manning were to play, and the Eagles were to bring him in, I’m certain he and the Eagles would ensure he’s healthy enough to play at or near the level he was at in 2010. Manning’s chances of being lost to injury are no worse than Michael Vick’s. In fact, if Manning gets a clean bill of health, I’d bet on him taking more snaps than Vick.

Also, if Eli Manning wins another Superbowl next week, what better way for Peyton to take back the Manning family crown than to pursue (and hopefully win) another Superbowl in the same division as his brother?

Of course, all this is based on the shrinking likelihood that Peyton Manning ever plays again, the somewhat probable chance he’s released by the Colts, and the minute possibility he relocates to an outdoor team in a cold city in one of the fiercest divisions in football.

But hey, one can hope.

(2) Ravens 20 at (1) Patriots 23
I was shocked by a number of things on Sunday, but none were as unexpected as Tom Brady’s off day. Sure, even the best quarterbacks don’t always have their greatest days in the postseason. Aaron Rodgers struggled last week. Ben Roethlisberger the week before. Even Brady himself has had his share of forgettable postseason performances. Sunday’s lackluster day felt different, though. Brady’s poor play was self-inflicted. He missed opened receivers, never looked comfortable in the pocket, and threw a couple of picks to top it all off. When he missed a streaking Rob Gronkowski for an easy touchdown in the 1^st quarter, you knew Brady was in for a rough afternoon. After all, Brady hasn’t missed that throw all season.

It’s not as if Brady was under intense pressure all afternoon, either. In fact, I expected more from Baltimore’s pass rush. Brady had time. His receivers were open. He just couldn’t find them. And when he did, he often missed. That’s what was most shocking. Brady typically takes advantage of opportunities. If a defense takes those opportunities away and beats him, then so be it. But for Brady to essentially defeat himself and scuttle another promising season was as unexpected as Joe Flacco’s play.

Flacco outplayed Brady. Go figure. If you’re the Ravens today, you’re killing yourself (not literally) for losing a game when Flacco outplayed perhaps the greatest postseason quarterback of all time. I’ve been as hard on Flacco as anyone. Yesterday he was great. He still missed on a few deep plays but he had the Raven offense humming in the 3rd quarter. Even on Baltimore’s final drive, with their season on the line, Flacco was poised and firing bullets. You could even argue Flacco won the game for the Ravens until Lee Evans nonchalantly allowed a defender to slap away a trip to the Superbowl. Yes, Billy Cundiff would go on to miss the game-tying field goal, but Evans’ drop was the bigger mistake.

Not only does Evans propel the Ravens to a Superbowl by hanging on, but he changes Flacco’s career, too. With a catch, Flacco finally proves he’s no phony in big games. What better way to prove one’s self than to march down the field in the final seconds of the AFC Championship game and pull out a win on the road? There is none. Flacco had successfully completed the task. He made an unbelievable throw. All he needed was Evans to hold on. Evans did, just not long enough. Instead of heading to the Superbowl a hero, Flacco’s career, for the immediate future, at least, will again be defined by what he and his team couldn’t do, even though he actually did exactly what was needed to win.

I may be alone on this, but I feel for the Ravens. I feel sorry for Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and the rest of the defense that played well enough to win. The diving 4^th quarter interception by Jimmy Smith off a tipped ball was tremendous. While the defense allowed Brady and the Patriots to move the ball consistently, they stood firm in the red zone, allowing only two touchdowns in five trips. We may never see Lewis and Reed in a game this big again. It’s sad to see them go out on account of a dropped ball and missed chip shot field goal. But that’s the way the ball bounces. Even Lewis acknowledged as much yesterday. Lewis is a great competitor and better teammate. He refused to blame his kicker. He refused to blame Evans. “There’s no one man that’s ever lost a game. We win as a team, we lose as a team,” Lewis said.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t put the Ravens in the Superbowl. Instead, they’ll have an entire offseason to dwell on that drop, that kick, and red zone failures of their own, because even though the Patriots were a lousy 2/5 in the red zone, the Ravens were a miserable 1/4. And although Evans and Cundiff made the most obvious mistakes, the Ravens let too many opportunities slip by. As a result, Tom Brady’s bad day didn’t turn into a disaster, just another shot at redemption instead.

(4) Giants 20 at (2) 49ers 17
Thankfully, the Giants and 49ers (and even the Ravens and Patriots to a degree) reminded us that defenses still matter, especially in the playoffs when referees put away their whistles and finally let football exist as the punishing sport it was created to be.

Let’s start with the quarterbacks. While neither Eli Manning nor Alex Smith played poorly, neither played great, either.

Smith made enough plays to keep the 49ers ahead or within striking distance throughout the game. However, it was painfully obvious he was in over his head as the closing minutes of the 4^th quarter approached. Even on the 49ers game-tying drive, Smith was overwhelmed. He couldn’t stop staring down Vernon Davis. I thought for sure he was going to throw the game away. Instead, Smith used his legs to gain 17 yards and rookie Kendall Hunter scampered for another 18 to put the 49ers in position for the game-tying field goal. That was it though. After that, the 49er offense disappeared completely, running 12 plays for a total of only 7 yards.

As a lifetime Eagles fan, I know what a deer-in-the-headlights quarterback looks like. Donovan McNabb perfected the look Alex Smith was sporting on Sunday. Smith couldn’t function. Three-yard outs were skipping to receivers. If his first option wasn’t available, he got happy feet and panicked. Smith continually looked to the sideline as if Steve Young was coming off the bench.

I’m not totally blaming Smith. It’s the first time he’s been in the playoffs. It was the biggest game of his career. It happens to most quarterbacks. It also didn’t help that Jerry Rice – in whatever state he’s in right now – would have outplayed the 49ers receivers on Sunday. Regardless, Smith just didn’t have that extra gear, that special sauce that turned him into Joe Montana against the Saints a week ago. You know, the special sauce that flows through Eli Manning’s veins.

Manning’s performance on Sunday was the gutsiest performance of the weekend. However, before we get to praising Manning, let’s be honest with ourselves, he was far from perfect. Manning missed a number of throws. He should have been picked off at least three times. Blame the weather, blame the 49ers relentless pass rush, blame Hakeem Nicks’ injury, blame whatever you like; it understandably wasn’t Manning’s best day.

Regardless, he made plays when necessary. He drove New York to a crucial field goal at the end of the 1^st half. His huge 3^rd down conversion after the game’s first turnover not only gave the Giants the lead, but it completely flipped momentum that had belonged to San Francisco for the entire 2^nd half to that point. Perhaps most impressive of all, though, was Manning’s resilience.

He was pummeled again and again. At times, he even looked rattled. Yet, he continued to battle. Even though he threw passes that should have been picked off, he kept slinging. He wasn’t going to stop until someone dragged him off the field or the Giants had won. Again, it wasn’t the prettiest performance of the weekend or the most impressive, but it was the gutsiest. And sometimes, when it’s cold and rainy and windy and you’re playing a punishing defense, those are the only quarterbacks that win. Eli Manning won, and that’s all that matters.

In addition to Manning’s gutsy performance, the Giants were aided by San Francisco’s inexperience. It’d be easy to point to Kyle Williams’ two fumbles as San Francisco’s only displays of inexperience, but really, the 49ers had a handful. The secondary dropped multiple interceptions. Carlos Rodgers’ drop in the 4^th was the biggest of all. While he’d like us to believe otherwise, he actually dropped that ball before his own safety laid him out, so it was 100% his fault. In addition to those drops, the offense also missed opportunities. Smith had Williams open deep for an easy touchdown but couldn’t connect. More importantly, the offense had the ball on four different occasions with the opportunity to win the game in the final minutes of regulation and overtime and failed to get a 1^st down.

In fact, I would even go as far as to blame the 49er offense over giving the Giant defense credit. Although the Giants defense did play well, the 49er offense was mostly anemic with the exception of two big scoring plays to Vernon Davis. What’s worse, San Francisco’s wide receivers combined for 1 catch for just 3 yards. The New York defense certainly played well, but they had a lot of help from Alex Smith and the San Francisco offense.

Without an exceptional performance from their defense, the 49ers may not have had a chance. The San Francisco pass rush prevented Manning from connecting on any big plays down the field. If a man was open, Manning rarely had time to find him or get off a decent throw. Although the Giants were persistent, they failed to establish a successful running game. The 49ers dictated what Manning and the Giants offense did. In fact, they may have even won the game if it weren’t for a quick whistle late in the 4^th quarter. I agree the whistle was awfully quick, but the Giants didn’t win the game there. The 49er defense again held and gave its offense yet another chance to win. Obviously, they failed to take advantage.

Essentially, the 49ers lost because Alex Smith didn’t have the playoff experience or the resilient fight of Eli Manning. Quarterbacks and defenses win in the postseason. Amazingly, neither the best quarterback nor the best defense from Sunday is moving on. Figure that one out.

Bonus input from a bitter Eagles fan:
It’s funny how little things like missed field goals impact an NFL season. The Ravens lost an opportunity at overtime in New England. The Bills would have a Superbowl title. Interestingly enough, a missed field goal on October 2^nd would later allow the Giants into the postseason and give San Francisco the 2^nd seed.

Alex Henery everyone.

That’s right, the Eagles rookie kicker failed to convert from 39 and 33 yards in the 4^th quarter against the 49ers. Philadelphia would eventually lose that game. Without that loss, the Eagles win the NFC East and the Giants are home debating Tom Coughlin’s future. Without that win, the 49ers fall behind the Saints and travel to New Orleans last weekend instead of playing host. Of course, there are a million other things that may have happened differently had Henery actually converted those field goals, but still, it’s painful to consider. If he’d have made just one, it’s not a stretch to say neither the Giants nor the 49ers would have been battling for a Superbowl berth on Sunday.

Last Week:  2 – 2 – 0
Playoffs:     5 – 3 – 0

Sunday, January 22 (3:00PM ET)

(2) Ravens at (1) Patriots
If you watched football for the first time last weekend and were asked to predict who would win the AFC Championship, you’d undoubtedly choose the New England Patriots. The Ravens struggled to beat a one-dimensional offense and Joe Flacco still plays like he’s a fourth year rookie. Even Flacco’s teammate and all-pro safety, Ed Reed admitted Flacco was flustered by Houston’s pass rush last week. Don’t worry though; Reed totally trusts Flacco and so does the rest of the defense. Or so they keep telling us.

Where there is smoke there is fire. I won’t go as far as to say the entire defense doubts Flacco’s abilities, but I’m confident at least 60% don’t trust Flacco can win a playoff game without a stellar outing from the defense. His lackluster performances in big games back that up. Even worse, he cries about not getting respect. As Sean Connery said in The Rock, “Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and love the prom queen.” Ok, so that’s the PG version, but you get the idea. Winners don’t whine. They succeed. Joe Flacco whines. Enough said.

As you’ve probably noticed by now, the coverage surrounding this game has focused on a premiere offense led by an all time great quarterback battling a premiere defense anchored by perhaps the greatest linebacker ever to play. It’s true, Tom Brady is that good. And Ray Lewis was that good and is still a very capable player. But let’s be clear, the Raven defense isn’t nearly as good as they’d like us to believe.

To be fair, the Raven defense ranked 3^rd in total defense this season behind only Pittsburgh and Houston. They also finished 3^rd in scoring defense. I watched the Ravens several times this season. Like everyone else, I was impressed by their defense. However, I noticed one thing was missing… a challenge.

The Ravens schedule featured the Chuck E Cheese degree of difficulty when it came to opposing offenses. Baltimore played the AFC South, AFC North and NFC West this year. Name one elite offense in that group. You can’t. That’s because there were none.

In fact, Baltimore played only one of the NFL’s top ten ranked offenses, the San Diego Chargers. Outside of the Chargers, Baltimore battled the 12^th, 13^th, 17^th, 19^th, 20^th 25^th, 26^th, 28^th, 29^th, 30^th, 31^st and 32^nd ranked offenses. WHOOOFFF. For those keeping score, that’s seven of the eight worst offenses in the NFL. Including the Chargers (6^th), Texans (13^th) and Steelers (12^th), the Ravens faced an offense ranked in the top half of the NFL only four times. This just in: The Patriots have a pretty good offense. The NFL’s 2^nd ranked, to be precise.

Also, in case you’re wondering, against the Chargers Baltimore surrendered 34 points, 415 yards, forced no turnovers and registered zero sacks. Did I mention many considered this a down year for Philip Rivers? Imagine what Tom Brady could accomplish against this Baltimore defense.

Of course, this is the conference championship. The Ravens have won plenty of playoff games on the road. They’re built to get after the quarterback and force turnovers. They thrive on being written off and left for dead. Most importantly, they know exactly what it takes to defeat the Patriots at home in the playoffs.

Still, at the very least, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs are going to need some offense from the underwhelming Joe Flacco to even have a shot at knocking off the Patriots. Yes, Baltimore’s defense is still one of the NFL’s best, but that ranking came at the expense of the NFL’s worst. PATRIOTS If I were Charles Barkley; Patriots -7

Sunday, January 22 (6:30PM ET)

(4) Giants at (2) 49ers
Forgive me if I have nothing sensible to offer in regards to this contest. I’m still reeling from Aaron Rodgers’ Tony Romoish performance. I know this much; I’m excited to watch because I haven’t the slightest clue who will win.

Let’s argue the Giants case first. The Giants have that swagger. You know, that “we shouldn’t be here but you let us in and now we’re going to steal the whole thing,” swagger. It’s the same swagger the Green Bay Packers rode to a title last year. It’s the same swagger the St. Louis Cardinals used to win the World Series this past fall. Talent is scary. Momentum is terrifying.

Don’t be fooled, though, the Giants are more than a bad team riding high. Eli Manning is at the top of his game. He’s been in playoff mode for a month and hasn’t blinked. Last week, he outplayed whom I consider (I guess “considered” is more appropriate) the ultimate playoff quarterback in Rodgers. Although Manning’s faces would make you believe otherwise, the man does not get flustered. He’s responded to every situation put before him since the Giants collapsed to the Redskins. Let’s also not forget the Giants resurgent running game and the stellar play of Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.

In addition to a very good offense and unflappable quarterback, the Giants owe their playoff success to a defense that has rallied from a forgettable regular season. In the Divisional Round against Green Bay, the Giants limited one of the NFL’s most potent offenses to a mere 13 points before a garbage time touchdown pushed the score to 20. Although the Packers had more first downs and ran more plays, the Giant defense made plays at the most critical times to keep the Packers off the scoreboard. Of course, it didn’t hurt that the Packers continually killed themselves with careless turnovers, poor throws/routes, and dropped passes. Regardless, the Giants are the most impressive and intimidating defense remaining in the postseason because they’ve proven they can beat the best.

I like the Giants. However, this is all weirdly similar to the Eagles run in the 2008 postseason. If you recall, the Eagles slipped in on the final day of the season. After knocking off Minnesota, the Eagles went into the Meadowlands and eliminated the Giants, the team many believed would repeat as Superbowl champions. Heading into the NFC Championship, the Eagles were the popular pick to knock off the equally surprising Arizona Cardinals and advance to the Superbowl. Only, they didn’t. The Cardinals won. Take a look at the Giants road – Got in on the final day of the season. Knocked off the favorites to repeat as NFL champs in the Divisional Round. Now traveling to face equally surprising NFC West champion. – It’s hardly a sure thing, but history tends to repeat itself in these situations.

The 49ers have plenty working in their favor as well. Obviously, Jim Harbaugh has his guys playing like the league tried to wipe the franchise off the map or something. Although a few of New Orleans’ turnovers were self-inflicted, San Francisco was there to take advantage and always made a big play when the Saints took back momentum. Teams consisting of mostly playoff newbies don’t usually have that kind of relentlessness. Credit Harbaugh for that.

Furthermore, the 49ers have a great defense. One thing Eli Manning hasn’t faced over the past month is a great defense. Will he still find Nicks and Cruz for big plays as he’s done so consistently? More importantly, will he have enough time to find his playmakers? Without a consistent and successful running game, the answer is no. This is the 49ers greatest advantage. San Francisco led the NFL in rush defense by well over 200 yards. They just don’t force offenses to be one-dimensional. They bully them into it.

On the other hand, where as the Giants have a good offense, the 49ers have a question mark. Even in last week’s big win, Alex Smith and the offense disappeared for nearly 2½ quarters. That’s a lot of pressure to put on a defense. Obviously, the 49er defense was up to the task against the Saints for much of that 2^nd half, but once the Saints found their stride, the defense was helpless. If it comes to that again, can we expect a similar Montana-esque performance from Smith?

As I said earlier, I have no idea what will happen. I think I like the Giants. However, I hate when the home team is the public underdog. A home crowd and a united “us against the world” mentality are two very powerful forces. I was wrong when I picked Drew Brees over Alex Smith last week. I was also wrong when I picked Aaron Rodgers over Eli Manning. As much as I loved what I saw from Smith last week, I still don’t trust him or the rest of his offense. GIANTS If I were Charles Barkley; Giants +2.5

*****

Last Week: 2 – 2 – 0
Playoffs:    6 – 2 – 0

(3) Texans 13 at (2) Ravens 20
Early last week I went through the remaining eight teams in the NFL playoffs. If you missed it, I boldly anointed the Houston Texans Superbowl champions … IF … they had their starting quarterback, Matt Schaub. Sunday’s events confirmed that declaration.

The Texans dominated Sunday. Anything the Ravens were able to accomplish offensively was given to them courtesy of Houston’s four turnovers. Jacoby Jones’ boneheaded fumble early in the 1^st quarter was especially devastating. Yes, TJ Yates’ three interceptions cannot be overlooked, but no one expected a rookie quarterback to walk into Baltimore and play a perfect game. Jones is a veteran special teamer. His decision to take that punt off a bounce with a defender closing in was inexcusable.

What’s worse, prior to that fumble the Texans successfully drove to the Baltimore 21 on the game’s first possession for a field goal. The Houston defense then forced a three-and-out. The crowd was quiet. Momentum belonged to the Texans. That turnover changed everything. If it weren’t for a dominant 2^nd quarter by Arian Foster, the Texans may never have had a chance.

Foster and a merciless pass rush proved why the Texans would have been the most complete team in the playoff field with a healthy Schaub. Foster gashed the Baltimore defense for close to 90 rushing yards in the 2^nd quarter alone. When the Ravens adjusted in the 2^nd half to contain Foster, big plays were available in the passing game. Though Yates couldn’t take advantage of those opportunities, Schaub no doubt would have.

Furthermore, the Houston defense proved they belong among the elite defenses in the NFL. The pass rush kept Joe Flacco out of sync all afternoon and the Texans front seven bottled up Ray Rice to the tune of 60 yards on 21 attempts – a lousy 2.9 yards per rush. As a unit, the Ravens offense was limited to just 227 total yards. Again, a stellar defense and an unstoppable running game paired with a healthy Matt Schaub would have propelled Houston to the Superbowl. I’m not sure I could be convinced otherwise.

As for the Ravens, I’m not sure I’ve seen a team perform so poorly and still advance. Baltimore was both bad and ugly on Sunday. While the defense “forced” four turnovers by taking advantage of a deer-in-headlights rookie quarterback, they were bullied at the line of scrimmage. With Tom Brady on the horizon, the Ravens can’t be encouraged by their performance against the shorthanded Texans.

More importantly, Flacco must improve dramatically to even give his defense a chance. We always talk about guys that excel in big game situations. Guys that have the “it” factor. Guys like Eli Manning or Tom Brady. Well, at this point, despite a playoff win in each of his four NFL seasons, Flacco clearly doesn’t have “it.” Although New England’s defense isn’t near the level of Houston’s, they’ll no doubt be at the top of their game Sunday. If Baltimore doesn’t get any improvement out of Flacco, they’ll find themselves on the short end of Sunday’s score.

Finally, let’s credit the Patriots for being the weekend’s big winners. Amazingly, the Patriots could advance to the big game by beating Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco – two quarterbacks that combined to throw for 4,339 yards, 32 TDs and 18 INTs at a completion rate of 53.7%. (Brady’s numbers: 5,235 yards, 39 TDs, 12 INTS, 65.6% completions.) With Peyton Manning injured and Philip Rivers suffering through an off year, the AFC lacked elite quarterback play. Still, a road to the Superbowl that goes through Tebow and Flacco is the draw of a lifetime. Maybe this is just the Patriots year.

(4) Giants 37 at (1) Packers 20
It’s never ideal to play your worst in the biggest game of the year. Unfortunately, the Packers did just that, somehow topping their ugly outing against the Kansas City Chiefs last month. First off, I owe a half-hearted apology to my brother, who warned me the Packers chronic case of the dropsies combined with the New York pass rush could spell disaster for the Pack. Although he didn’t pick the Giants to win, he was right.

I knew the Packers had issues with dropped passes. It killed my fantasy team all season. I also knew the Giants pass rush was a force. I just didn’t expect Aaron Rodgers to play like Joe Flacco. Nor did I expect the Green Bay defense to fold like Asante Samuel in the open field. What an all-around embarrassing day for the Packers. Unfortunately, they didn’t have the fortuity of facing TJ Yates instead of Eli Manning.

Speaking of Manning, I’d also like to formally apologize for criticizing his preseason declaration that he belonged in the same conversation as Brady, Brees and his brother, Peyton. In fact, we’re two wins away from possibly restructuring the Manning family pecking order. Does Eli pass Peyton with a second title? Maybe not on a skill or statistical level but certainly in the “played his best when it mattered” category. Peyton often struggled in the postseason. Eli has excelled, especially this year. Of course, it helps when you play the NFC North – the only division in football that can’t figure out how to defend the Hail Mary. Sure, it happened early enough in the game for Green Bay to recover, but heading into the half down 10 is significantly more daunting than trailing by three.

The Hail Mary wasn’t even the worst of the Packers first half debacle. No, the failed onside kick was. While it didn’t hurt Green Bay on the scoreboard, it showed weakness. It showed fear. Onside kicks in those situations are for the desperate underdogs; the team that knows it needs something extra to gain an advantage. The Packers were the hands-down favorite to repeat as champions and playing at home, no less. The onside kick proved something wasn’t right. I’m almost certain the Giants gained confidence just because the Packers made the attempt. They smelt blood in the water. Champions don’t resort to desperate acts. The Packers did. The Giants were more poised, more confident, and executed flawlessly. Green Bay grew frustrated, committed stupid mistakes, and missed plenty of opportunities to either tie or take the lead throughout the afternoon. Even Joe Cool aka Aaron Rodgers started panicking.

Credit the Giant defense for the win. The pass rush kept Rodgers under pressure and the secondary played its best game against the NFL’s best passing attack. Combine that effort with another successful running day (something I didn’t think the Giants could do) and Hakeem Nicks’ second monster performance in as many playoff games, and you have the formula for the Giants domination from start to finish.

New York exacted revenge on Green Bay after a loss in the regular season. They’ll have the opportunity to do the same in San Francisco. This time, though, a better defense and a lights-out Eli Manning await Alex Smith and the 49ers.

(3) Saints 32 at (2) 49ers 36
For most of Saturday afternoon, the 49ers refused to take control of a game the Saints continually tried to give away. For whatever reason – time zone change, poor preparation, over confidence – the Saints could not have played a worse 1^st quarter, committing three turnovers and falling behind 14-0. San Francisco’s lead expanded to 17 before New Orleans finally woke up and closed the gap to 17-14 at the half despite a fourth turnover.

The 3^rd quarter was the calm before the storm. Aside from a 49ers field goal courtesy of yet another New Orleans turnover, nothing happened. Six possessions. Four punts. Three points. Like I said, nothing happened. That trend continued into the 4^th quarter as the teams traded field goals. Then, with about five minutes remaining and the 49ers leading 23-17, all hell broke loose.

Saints: 9 plays, 79 yards, Touchdown.
49ers: 6 plays, 85 yards, Touchdown.
Saints: 4 plays, 88 yards, Touchdown.
49ers: 7 plays, 85 yards, Touchdown.
Game Over.

So we’re clear, the 49ers were quarterbacked by Alex Smith. Not Joe Montana, Steve Young, or even Jeff Garcia. Alex Smith. Obviously, the Saints have been known to score in bunches, especially in big moments, so their outburst wasn’t as shocking. But the 49ers? This 49er team? Unreal.

Let’s start with the Saints traveling to the West Coast to take on the NFC West champion and losing as the favored team for the second straight season. There is a lot of blame to go around for this one and the offense deserves most of it. Sure, the defense was atrocious in those final minutes. They made Alex Smith look like Aaron Rodgers. In fairness, though, Smith and the 49er offense had done nothing since the 1^st Quarter, so it’s possible the New Orleans defense had fallen asleep. Regardless, you can’t turn the ball over five times and blame your defense for losing a playoff game. The Saints were uncharacteristically sloppy and careless throughout the 1^st half. You can credit the impotence of the 49er offense or the Saints defense for keeping New Orleans in the game after those turnovers. Either way, the Saints were lucky to even have a chance at winning.

Enough about the Saints. Today belonged to Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh has shown all season that he has the guts to go all in and make decisions other coaches would shy away from. On a crucial 3^rd and 7 late in the 4^th quarter, Harbaugh called a naked bootleg that went 28 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. I think FOX’s announcers did Harbaugh a disservice for not acknowledging what a gutsy call that was.

After the Saints took back the lead and Smith again led the 49ers into field goal range, Harbaugh continued to press toward the goal line. How many coaches would get conservative in that scenario and play for overtime? Not Harbaugh. Even with the unproven and playoff rookie Smith under center, Harbaugh attacked the Saints defense looking to win the game instead of settling for a tie and overtime.

All season Harbaugh has told anyone that would listen how much he trusted Alex Smith. I just assumed it was coach talk to keep his quarterback’s confidence up. Apparently, I was wrong because you don’t put your season in the hands of your quarterback like Harbaugh did today unless you absolutely trust him. Harbaugh’s shtick isn’t just an act. He’s as fearless and bold as he appears.

The unquestionable highlight of Saturday was seeing the 49er players react to such an emotional victory. I don’t usually appreciate rubbing noses in defeat, but Alex Smith jabbing to the Saints (who were taunting him all afternoon) was tremendous. For a career underachiever to step up in the biggest moment and outduel perhaps the NFL’s top quarterback was just awesome. He unleashed eight years of disappointment on that Saints defense after the winning touchdown. Good for him.

Even better was Vernon Davis’ tearful celebration with Harbaugh. Being a part of a losing franchise takes a toll on players. We’ve seen it happen so many times to talented athletes. Watching a terrific player like Davis get over that hump in such dramatic fashion is why we love sports. It’s why we watch.

Davis was criticized as an immature diva before his notorious sideline confrontation with former coach Mike Singletary. Singletary sent Davis to the locker room that day and since then Davis has been a leader and difference maker for the 49er franchise. Just like Smith’s outburst, Davis’ tears were years of failure, disappointment, and frustration pouring out. I’m sure they were also tears of gratitude for Harbaugh, who has now taken a team many wrote off before the season to the Conference Championship game. Did you happen to notice what Harbaugh said to Davis as he exited the field with tears flowing down his face? “You f—in’ did this s–t.”

Harbaugh gave this team of underachievers confidence and in one season transformed them into division champions and title contenders. You can’t say enough about him. Great team. Great win. Even better coach.

(4) Broncos 10 at (1) Patriots 45
There really isn’t a whole lot to say. The Broncos were overmatched from the get-go. A Tom Brady interception made it interesting for a brief 10-minute stretch, but that was about it. As I mentioned last week, this was a desperation game for Brady and the Patriots and they played like it. While it was only one win over a significantly lesser opponent, it was the most dominating win of the postseason thus far. It was also New England’s biggest win since the AFC title game four years ago.

Although it’s a little unfortunate to lose the Tim Tebow storyline, you always want the best teams with the best players competing for the championship. The Patriots are clearly one of those teams and Brady is the NFL’s version of Kobe Bryant – a fierce competitor who wants to win and nothing else (well, and promote Uggs, too).

Also, big congratulations to the United States of America. Protecting the sanctity of broadcasting commercials is a thankless task, but it’s nice to see so many people outraged by Focus on the Family’s John 3:16 commercial. I mean, whenever you have children quoting Bible versus on National TV instead of advertisements promoting sex, extramarital affairs, booze, and women’s lingerie; you have to lash out. I will sleep comfortably at night knowing there are people out there that truly care about what my kid sees on television. I don’t know what I would have done had he been awake to see that appalling and threatening commercial. Thanks again, America.

I’ll warn you now; I had a real good feel for last week’s games. If you come here for gambling advice, you probably already know I went 4-0. (You’re also probably dead broke. Sorry about that.) This week I’m not as confident. Between unproven quarterbacks and erratic defenses, I don’t know what to think. Consider yourself warned.

Last Week:  3 – 1 – 0
Playoffs:     3 – 1 – 0

Saturday, January 14 (4:30PM ET)

(3) Saints at (2) 49ers
I’ve flip-flopped at least six times throughout the week on this matchup. At first, I was very confident in picking the Saints because they’re obviously the hottest team in the NFL. Last week’s 2^nd half assault on the Detroit Lions only increased New Orleans’ momentum. Then, I got myself caught up in how good the 49ers defense is. I like defense. I like to believe a dominant defense can slow a dominant offense. This process obviously repeated itself a few times. Since I couldn’t come to a decision, I’ve chosen to ignore both arguments. Instead, I’m looking back at what each team did against opponents similar to this week’s adversary. We’ll start with the Saints.

As I mentioned a few days ago, New Orleans played just one game in temperatures below 65 degrees. While they moved the ball well, they struggled in the red zone, kicking three field goals until finally breaking through for a pair of 4^th quarter touchdowns. Aside from the Titans, the Saints only faced what I consider a good defense on three occasions. Two came in consecutive weeks early in the season. New Orleans hung 30 points on the Bears and a whopping 40 on Houston. Later, New Orleans trounced the Giants on national television. Yes, all three were played in the Superdome, but still, that’s a lot of points.

The 49ers reside in the NFC West, so potent offenses aren’t exactly a local product. While they didn’t encounter an offense on the Saints level, the 49ers did face the Cowboys, Eagles, Lions, and Giants – all passing offenses led by good to very good quarterbacks. San Francisco went 3-1 in those contests. They blew a double digit 4^th quarter lead against Dallas. Erased a double digit 4^th quarter deficit against the Eagles thanks to Alex Henery’s failure to convert a 36 yard field goal (shoot me now). Against Detroit and New York, the 49ers erased small 2^nd half deficits to emerge victorious. To review; the 49er defense has had success against aerial attacks. They allowed more than 24 points only once in those four games (and only twice all season).

So that brings us back to where we started. I’m stuck choosing between an unproven Alex Smith and a dominant 49er defense, or Drew Brees and the Saints offense maintaining their torrid pace outside and on grass. It’s not often a team goes from chronic loser to first round playoff bye. It’s even less often a team in that situation moves on to the Conference Championship Game. I like the 49ers, but I can’t pick Alex Smith to outscore the Saints. I just can’t. SAINTS If I were Charles Barkley; Saints -3.5

Saturday, January 14 (8:00PM ET)

4) Broncos at (1) Patriots
Tom Brady needs this victory more than any victory at any other point in his career. That sounds extreme, but give me a few paragraphs to convince you. You see, his playoff legacy is at stake. Sure, he’s won countless playoff games and three Superbowls, but players are more often remembered for how they ended their careers. Brady hasn’t won a playoff game in half a decade. He’s lost two straight at home despite being the favored team. If he and the Patriots were to fall this week, it’d be the 2^nd consecutive year the Patriots were one-and-done despite a first round bye and the conference’s top seed.

Even when Brady played in all those Superbowls, he was playing with house money. No one believed Brady could get New England to the playoffs following the 2001 season, let alone the Superbowl. The titles in 2004 and 2005 were icing on the cake, and so was the Superbowl appearance after the 2007 season. We all knew Brady could win big games then. We’re not so sure anymore. Brady needs this win and possibly even one more after it to prove he’s still as clutch as any quarterback in NFL history. Don’t think Brady isn’t aware of this. Don’t believe he isn’t annoyed by the attention Tim Tebow has received, either.

Brady loves to prove he’s the best. As he did in Denver last month, Brady will be out to prove he’s the NFL’s golden boy, not Tebow. Denver’s defense isn’t talented enough in the secondary to slow Brady or his stable of receivers. A healthy pass rush from Denver would certainly be effective in slowing the Patriots, but considering the Broncos struggled at times to pressure a one-legged Ben Roethlisberger, I’m not holding my breath.

Tebow actually played well in his previous meeting with New England. People seem to forget that Tebow and the Broncos jumped out to a 16-7 lead early in the 2^nd quarter and owned momentum before Brady took it from them. The Bronco defense could never get it back.

Tebow’s been the best sports story in years. He’s been the most thrilling, exciting, and enjoyable part of the NFL season. I know he has some magical gift for unthinkable heroics that cannot be explained. I just don’t think it will be enough to overcome Brady and a desperate Patriots team. PATRIOTS If I were Charles Barkley; Patriots -13.5

Sunday, January 15 (1:00PM ET)

(3) Texans at (2) Ravens
I don’t like this game. I feel like I’m picking a rookie quarterback either way. Sorry, Joe Flacco, but it’s true. While you have playoff experience and a few NFL seasons under your belt, I still don’t trust you anymore than a rookie quarterback. What’s worse, you get angry because you aren’t “given” the respect you think you deserve. Champions don’t beg for respect. They earn it. Regardless, it’s hard to imagine the Texans pulling an upset.

Houston’s offense is so one-dimensional right now it makes Andy Reid’s offense look balanced. If Arian Foster and Ben Tate can’t continually get four to five yards on first down, Houston will find itself in very big trouble. 3^rd and longs against the Ravens get you in trouble fast. Terrell Suggs of “Ball So Hard University” has been the most disruptive defensive lineman in the AFC. Even if Houston is able to slow Sluggs, rookie T.J. Yates hasn’t shown he’s capable of carrying an offense in any of his six appearances this season. Anything Yates accomplishes is the direct result of a successful run game. Without it, the Texans will struggle to move the football and thus, score. You can’t beat an elite defense like Baltimore’s by doing one thing well.

Baltimore’s offense doesn’t exactly light up the scoreboard either. As you can tell, I like Flacco less and less each year. He’s Matt Ryan but with a better defense and scarier facial hair. The Raven offense is entirely Ray Rice. Similar to Houston’s situation with Foster, Rice allows the Ravens to be successful. Stop Rice and it’s likely you stop the Ravens. That’s why if Baltimore is to win, Flacco must make plays with his arm and avoid the devastating turnovers that have plagued him. Houston’s defense is every bit as good as Baltimore’s so the offense that flinches first will probably lose and the offense that is able to establish its running game will almost surely win. I hate picking Flacco to outperform an opposing quarterback, but I feel Yates leaves me no choice. RAVENS If I were Charles Barkley; Texans +7.5

Sunday, January 15 (4:30PM ET)

(4) Giants at (1) Packers
Don’t let one week persuade how you feel about a team. I repeated this to myself multiple times this week. I’ve loved the Packers all season long as the team to represent the NFC in the Superbowl. I was also supremely confident the Giants would rally to win the NFC East and defeat whatever Wildcard team stood between them and the Divisional Round. Now that New York has accomplished everything I expected, I find myself thinking they could win in Green Bay. Nonsense. Here’s why.

The Packers didn’t go 15-1 because the schedule broke their way. They don’t reside in a cupcake division and their schedule wasn’t crafted from marshmallows and cotton balls. No, the Packers went 15-1 because they were and still are the best team in football. The easiest way to make this pick is to refute the reasons many believe the Giants can win.

1. The Giants nearly beat the Packers a month ago. Well, guess what? That game meant everything to the Giants. At the time, New York had lost three straight and was desperate for a win to stay within striking distance of the Cowboys. The game meant nothing to the Packers who were 12-0 at the time and all but locked in to the NFC’s top seed. Green Bay won a game it didn’t have to have while the Giants lost a game they desperately needed. Oh yeah, this one is in Wisconsin, not North Jersey.

2. New York’s pass rush will disrupt Rodgers and the Packer offense. Absolutely possible. The only way to derail a great quarterback is to get after him. However, Rodgers isn’t Drew Brees or Tom Brady. Rodgers can move and he moves quite well. If you watched the Chiefs victory over the Packers, you saw the Chiefs disrupt Rodgers’ pocket and hit him often. On the other hand, although the Chiefs were breathing down Rodgers’ neck all afternoon, Rodgers still escaped to make plenty of plays. In fact, had his receivers held on to catchable balls, the Packers win that game by at least a touchdown. Disrupting Rodgers isn’t enough. You have to bring him down before he gets outside the pocket. If he gets away, you’re done. (Assuming of course his receivers actually catch the ball.)

3. Green Bay’s defense is weak. So it’s statistically ranked as one of the worst in the NFL. Oh well. Guess what it led the NFL in… yep, interceptions. Eli Manning has been spectacular this season and even better in the 4^th quarter. However, he’s still prone to interceptions. Manning threw 16 this season. Aaron Rodgers threw six. If the Packers get a lead and Manning and the Giants are forced to commit heavily to the passing game, they’re playing right to Green Bay’s strength. The Packers thrive on big leads and an aggressive defense to capitalize on the opposing quarterback’s impatience and desperation. The Giants best shot is to run the football and hope they can slow Rodgers. I don’t think they’ll successfully do either. PACKERS If I were Charles Barkley; Packers -7.5

*****

Last Week: 4 – 0 – 0
Playoffs:    4 – 0 – 0

First, the Heat. Yes, the Miami Heat has (always sounds weird) disappeared in the 4^th quarter and overtime in consecutive games. Yes, LeBron has looked less than super in both outings. No, Dwyane Wade hasn’t looked much better. As a result, media outlets have begun to panic about the heralded team from South Beach. The Heat can’t win a title because they can’t close. LeBron James still disappears in big moments. It’s time to start worrying about Miami’s issues in the 4^th quarter. Blah blah blah. Settle down, everyone. Just settle down.

Please note; I am not a Heat fan, nor am I a LeBron fan, but didn’t this very same thing happen last season when Miami started the season hovering around .500? Eventually, the Heat advanced to the NBA Finals. Are we really doing this again? The season’s not a month old yet. Miami has played in only 11 games. More importantly, and this applies to every team, the Heat has (still weird) only had limited opportunities to prepare for the season and practice as a team due to the lockout. It’s going to take time for teams to hit their groove and figure out what works and what doesn’t, especially late in close games.

Do LeBron’s disappearing acts raise concerns? Yes and no. Against the Warriors, LeBron didn’t attempt a single field goal in the 4^th quarter and scored zero points. This shouldn’t come as too great a surprise. LeBron often relied on his teammates like this in Cleveland. He’s an equal opportunity teammate. He has all the gifts of an NBA superstar, but, for better or worse, he lacks a superstar’s mentality on the court. Who knows, maybe LeBron intentionally shied away to help his teammates build confidence for similar situations later in the season? It’s a stretch, but still a possibility. On the other hand, LeBron has proven he doesn’t excel in defining moments, so anytime he flops in the 4^th quarter of a close game is a little worrisome for Heat fans.

As for Miami’s performance against the Clippers on Wednesday night? Again, no need to panic. LeBron and Wade both had plenty of good looks in the 4^th quarter. They simply weren’t falling. James especially had a number of chances within six feet of the rim that wouldn’t fall. It happens. Poor officiating didn’t help matters, either. Still, it’s too early in the season for this level of panic, regardless of what ESPN wants you to believe.

As for Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, they have a familiar look. Welcome to the pre-Pau Gasol era. In my opinion, the media is 0-2 on these stories. On one side, the media is overreacting about the Heat falling apart. On the other, those same outlets are praising Kobe for carrying the Lakers. Absolutely, Kobe deserves credit. He’s the gutsiest superstar in the country right now and has been for the past decade. He plays hurt. He wins hurt. True baller.

Still, we’ve seen this version of Kobe and the Lakers before. The same media that wants to exploit Miami’s struggles ignores the proven issues that come along with Kobe scoring 40+ points every few games. History has shown that when Kobe is hoisting more than 25 shots per game, the Lakers aren’t title contenders. Even during his prime, when Kobe was by far the best player in the NBA, the Lakers were still a relatively easy out in the NBA playoffs. And yet, when you turn on your TV right now, Kobe and the Lakers are plastered everywhere as one of the league’s elite teams. Elite player? No question. Elite team? Questionable.

Similar to the Miami situation, it’s still early. It’s not fair to assume Kobe will continue to carry the Lakers at this level. After all, he knows all too well that titles aren’t won with him carrying the scoring load night in and night out. If this trend continues, though, and we’re unable to escape the – Kobe and the Lakers are back – hype, just remember how this story ends; a loss in the Western Conference Semifinals. Kobe + Kobe + Kobe doesn’t equal title number seven. Kobe + Gasol + Bynum + team equals a legitimate contender for title number seven.